Kayla Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 FWIW - Quite a few arctic type (-12C to -18C 850s) cold members on the 12z EPS Ensemble beginning around the 13th-14th. 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 The GGEM/ensembles took a notable step towards the GFS/GEFS today, on the large scale. Wouldn't surprise me if the ECMWF trends that way tonight. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 FWIW - Quite a few arctic type (-12C to -18C 850s) cold members on the 12z EPS Ensemble beginning around the 13th-14th.Yeah the Euro ensembles looked great in the mid-long range. Gives me hope that the pattern won't go back to total poo after our brush with cold next week. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 The GGEM/ensembles took a notable step towards the GFS/GEFS today, on the large scale. Wouldn't surprise me if the ECMWF trends that way tonight.Predictable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 I know some people on here already have a subscription to WeatherBell but for those that don't, right now is a great time to sign up. They offer a 7 day free trial and these next 7 days you will get your moneys worth. I just signed up for my free trial. If the KING EURO delivers a big snow/ice storm, then I will probably subscribe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 The GGEM/ensembles took a notable step towards the GFS/GEFS today, on the large scale. Wouldn't surprise me if the ECMWF trends that way tonight.Hail to the KING Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Seems like a pretty weenie way to look at things. Why would you predict the low to be mostly dry when models are actually trending wetter as we get closer?Not for the Whatcom county area. Basing expectations off previous experience can be better than any model sometimes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Total snow for the next 10 days per the 12Z ECMWF. Certainly not backing down. Most of this comes Thursday into early Friday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Not for the Whatcom county area. Basing expectations of previous experience can be better than any model sometimesI forgot that poster lived in Bellingham. It will probably be drier up that way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Total snow for the next 10 days per the 12Z ECMWF. Certainly not backing down. Most of this comes Thursday into early Friday. Holy frack...that would be amazing, even if it melts in a day or two. The anticipation with this event is killing me. I haven't seen a good snow in the PNW since Feb 2014 in Eugene. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Not liking the model trends today for the Portland area to see any accumulating snow. There's just too much southerly flow on Monday and the overrunning storm is going to have to trend a couple degrees colder still for anyone south of Olympia to have a chance. Obviously still a ways out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Seattle NWS took down the Special Weather Statement and changed the forecast for the EPSL for Sunday from "rain showers changing to snow showers" during the day to "rain/snow in evening... snow showers after midnight". Out with the optimist, in with the "realistic" one writing the discussion. ECMWF is almost totally dry on Sunday during the day... precip ends early in morning. Here is precip from 10 - 4 on Sunday... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 ECMWF is almost totally dry on Sunday during the day... precip ends early in morning. Here is precip from 10 - 4 on Sunday... Later Monday will be better . Nothing compared to later in the week of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Monday will be better. A little bit... but issuing an SPS for Sunday with rain changing to snow in Seattle is sort of silly when it will probably be partly sunny and in the 40s. Actually a nice day compared to the mess we have had lately. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 A little bit... but issuing a SPS for Sunday with rain changing to snow in Seattle is sort of silly when it will probably be partly sunny and in the 40s. Actually a nice day compared to the mess we have had lately.You are correct about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Sunday is not the time period we are looking at.... Monday/Tuesday is. I was quoting Sunday to show the differences in how NWS will forecast depending on who is the one behind the desk at that time. Nothing has changed with how Sunday was looking this morning vs. this afternoon, but their forecast has. It got brought up a few pages ago, so I touched on it again. I can't keep up with all the posts now! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 1.4" of rain so far today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 So will this warning shot give us enough warning or not? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Not liking the model trends today for the Portland area to see any accumulating snow. There's just too much southerly flow on Monday and the overrunning storm is going to have to trend a couple degrees colder still for anyone south of Olympia to have a chance. Obviously still a ways out.Early Monday morning isn't looking too terribly different than it was last night to me. Still marginal but some potential is definitely there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 18z ensembles look improved overall. Still a group of Euro-ish members that want to get us colder with the mid week airmass. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Early Monday morning isn't looking too terribly different than it was last night to me. Still marginal but some potential is definitely there.It was pretty disheartening to see how unrealistic the soundings were last night. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Not liking the model trends today for the Portland area to see any accumulating snow. There's just too much southerly flow on Monday and the overrunning storm is going to have to trend a couple degrees colder still for anyone south of Olympia to have a chance. Obviously still a ways out.I'm still liking PDX's chances of having a nice overrunning event. The updated run of the 12z KING EURO only has a high of 29 for PDX on Thursday. I would like it to show more snow but precipitation rates will change from now until then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 It was pretty disheartening to see how unrealistic the soundings were last night.Yeah... I think you guys were right about that. I'd love for the WRF to verify on that 4+ in on Monday but it is just looking a bit too warm and those soundings seem to contradict the GFS quite a bit. Just seems unrealistic. I think accumulation probably unlikely at the lowest elevations Monday. Maybe an inch if you're lucky? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 It was pretty disheartening to see how unrealistic the soundings were last night.That was odd. Going to be pretty hard to get sticking snow near sea level with that low hanging out directly North of you. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Drunk Uncle handles the Kona low a bit different. A tad slower development, and holds it further west a bit longer. That's the key feature is the Kona Low. If by some chance 00z runs tonight do the same, we may get a bit colder. If the Kona Low develops sooner it may hold even further southwest. Root for that. If it is further northeast, we may see slightly more moderate conditions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Early Monday morning isn't looking too terribly different than it was last night to me. Still marginal but some potential is definitely there. I'd like to see QPF go up a fair amount to feel like there's a real shot at anything. As currently modeled, it's going to be very tough even for my location (about 300') to get below about 34. Great shot at seeing a lot of wet flakes, though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 I'm still liking PDX's chances of having a nice overrunning event. The updated run of the 12z KING EURO only has a high of 29 for PDX on Thursday. I would like it to show more snow but precipitation rates will change from now until then. Frozen precip is very likely for the area at the onset of the overrunning event. However, it's going to take a cooling trend on all of the models now for that precipitation to be snow and not just a quick sleet/zr mix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Frozen precip is very likely for the area at the onset of the overrunning event. However, it's going to take a cooling trend on all of the models now for that precipitation to be snow and not just a quick sleet/zr mix.Are you thinking November 2014 sleet storm all over again for PDX? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Are you thinking November 2014 sleet storm all over again for PDX? No. This is a pretty different setup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Lots of time for this to change but I hope the air aloft doesn't warm as quickly as this shows. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/kpdx.132.0000.snd.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 NWS Spokane has continually lowered temps for my area Tuesday night. As of now, I am looking at a low of 8F. If it verifies, it will officially be the coldest temp I have ever experienced at any place I have lived. I have experienced colder temps of course but never at my place of residence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Would sure be fun to watch some snow falling at Centurylink on Sunday evening!I'll be there! First game ever since tickets are so insane. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 FWIW the 18z NAM tracks the low further East over the Sound and thus has a very healthy CZ all day Monday for Northern King and most of Snohomish County. It isn't super cold (highs in the upper 30's Monday around Seattle) but it shows a bullseye of over 0.5" of QPF 10 PM Sunday through 10 PM Monday, most of which would be snow for areas with a bit of elevation. This would make me a very happy man. Wouldn't be a good setup for Portland though with the Southerlies. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 NWS Spokane has continually lowered temps for my area Tuesday night. As of now, I am looking at a low of 8F. If it verifies, it will officially be the coldest temp I have ever experienced at any place I have lived. I have experienced colder temps of course but never at my place of residence.I've recorded a -28 here in Redmond. It was February 2014. Minus 20 a few times in December 2013. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mountainman Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Won't snow up here in the SW hills of Mountainous Canada eh hehe. Thats pretty obvious. Cant u guys read the signs?? I mean in the SW Vancouver valley area. Check back after this sunday night event is over and we will compare data from yours to mine And quit arguing so much! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Nice model trends today. Much better scenario for snow in the Seattle area Monday night than yesterday's runs. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mountainman Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Models Schmodels. Up n down like a 70's yoyo trap. Trip trip and 6Z is a 180. Then 12Z is back again. They are head spiinners for shure.. Where is the model riders at on FryDay atttttt? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Models Schmodels. Up n down like a 70's yoyo trap. Trip trip and 6Z is a 180. Then 12Z is back again. They are head spiinners for shure.. Where is the model riders at on FryDay atttttt?What the f*ck are you smoking? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 What the f*ck are you smoking?Wish i had some. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 What the f*ck are you smoking?I think the models are getting to him! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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