December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy]

00z continues the trend of taking my snow away. Down to about 4" from 8" a couple days ago. Interested to see the gfs

[Gradient Keeper]

Here is a forecast trend showing all 4 GFS runs from today and a clear signal that we are seeing the arctic trough dig just a bit more favorably. It's not enough to bring down arctic cold for PDX, but it's a notch closer. The overall results are very small though. I would like to see this trend continue tomorrow.

http://imgur.com/fOJXjAs

[Bryant]

00z gfs is lame

[Deweydog]

Pretty juicy system late next week.

[luminen]

I'll be surprised if the PDX area gets any sticking snow.

[Trainwreck]

Juicy how Dewey? Like fruity or spongy?

[Deweydog]

Juicy how Dewey? Like fruity or spongy?

******* wet.

[Trainwreck]

If anyone can help me at all, what do you guys think about Redmond getting snow Sunday through Thursday? I believe you guys a lot more than the local mets here. They all read a teleprompter from the nws.

[Deweydog]

Michael J. Fox went full Parkinson's...

[Gradient Keeper]

00z very wet before day 8. Flow turns very progressive across the North Pacific back to Siberia. Jeez. I hope we don't see a return of the GOA/Aleutian vortex.

[Gradient Keeper]

Jet seems nicely suppressed though. Nice

[Brennan]

I wish forecast models only went out to 3 days.

[Deweydog]

I wish forecast models only went out to 3 days.

What would we do with the other 14 days?

[BLI snowman]

Michael J. Fox went full Parkinson's...

 

Similar to the Euro from yesterday. Also more interesting for Monday night down here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Canadian is just so much better overall...

[HighlandExperience]

00z GFS definitely cut back on snow amounts for King/Snohomish counties Mon-Tues. Hopefully 00z Euro doesn't follow suit.

 

Still liking the chances of a CZ setting up.

It's time to start praying

[Deweydog]

Similar to the Euro from yesterday. Also more interesting for Monday night down here.

Yeah, hints at something deformationish. Looks nice, not buying it.

[Kayla]

00z GFS is a great run for PDX peeps, not so great for SEA.

[Brennan]

[IbrChris]

The post heard around the world.

 

Kind of a shame that an employed meteorologist in Oregon can't take a stab at a forecast for PDX in the medium range without getting destroyed for his "pessimism"... There are seriously nearly two pages of posts ripping that post to shreds like a mob of rabid, snow starved villagers with torches. "Hang that bloody heretic!"

 

I'd take Chris' analysis over the "I have a feeling the models are going to trend snowier"/"I have a sneaking suspicion the dry pocket is going to moisten"/"Even in a borderline scenario, my gut is telling me that it's going to start and stay as snow despite the models" analyses. I definitely want my doctor to stop chemo because he has a "gut feeling" the cancer will stop spreading.

 

I don't necessarily agree with Chris' forecast, but it's kind of outrageous that a met can't post a preliminary forecast without being told that they are "not accomplishing anything" -- I think posting a forecast with an analysis to back it up is accomplishing more than the "my palm is itchy so it's gonna snow!!!" posts, which set people up for heartbreak.

 

I'm fine with being wrong...I'm wrong plenty. I don't think you can survive this job without turning to alcoholism or similar if your emotional well-being hinges on a 3-5 day lead-time snow forecast panning out. I still think Monday is a non-event for most of Portland but might deliver an inch or two for some folks with a bit of elevation or up in Clark County.

 

If Monday is a snow day, great. If not, life goes on and we will have other opportunities.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS wants to give me some wet snow next Friday night/Sat morning. Very EUROish.

[TT-SEA]

Some rain would be nice.   

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Gorge east turned chilly/colder after day 8..... likely cold pool setting up

 

00z GEM suggests a big ice storm for PDX potentially.

[Kayla]

925mb temps dropped a little down to -2C for PDX area on Monday morning. Widespread 2-4" snowfall amounts for the metro area is the result.

[Brennan]

The GFS wants to give me some wet snow next Friday night/Sat morning. Very EUROish.

me me me me me me. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS gives my location 4-6" Monday, RPM says 2-4". 

[IbrChris]

Rod Hill just said it could snow or it could rain!!!

#EitherWayItsAWin

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Stop hating on mr fox dewey.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

me me me me me me. 

 

me me me me me me. 

 

I just hope I get mine....You'll always have January 2005. 

[Kayla]

WRF sounding continues to show a snow profile during the heaviest precip at PDX on Monday. Still too close to call one way or another...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow we get 3 days of cold and a 12 hr overrunning snow event! What a winter lol.

[Jesse]

Wow we get 3 days of cold and a 12 hr overrunning snow event! What a winter lol.

It just started lol.

[HighlandExperience]

Wow we get 3 days of cold and a 12 hr overrunning snow event! What a winter lol.

 

#globalwarming

[FroYoBro]

Wow we get 3 days of cold and a 12 hr overrunning snow event! What a winter lol.

GOOD point. 

[Deweydog]

WRF sounding continues to show a snow profile during the heaviest precip at PDX on Monday. Still too close to call one way or another...

 

Screen Shot 2016-12-02 at 8.56.28 PM.png

I'll piss on a spark plug if PDX is 32 degrees at 7am Monday.

[catnip]

Wow we get 3 days of cold and a 12 hr overrunning snow event! What a winter lol.

#warningshot

[BLI snowman]

925mb temps dropped a little down to -2C for PDX area on Monday morning. Widespread 2-4" snowfall amounts for the metro area is the result.

 

Yeah, 00z depicts the low forming a little further off the coast and enhances the CAA from the ENE. I'd say it's fairly unlikely but it makes for nice eye candy.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It just started lol.

Acually it looks pretty dang good to me next week. Could end up being the best week of winter for alot of us in the past couple years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'll piss on a spark plug if PDX is 32 degrees at 7am Monday.

 

It just seems so unlikely in this pattern.

[FroYoBro]

The WRF is still insistent that the Portland area picks up a couple of sloppy inches Monday morning. Who knows?