Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Someone between Seattle and Bellingham will see 6" tonight. That much I know! There should be a very healthy CZ. Just a matter of how much does it drop south. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 To this day I still have never seen anything like that night here. I remember looking at the thermometer and it reading 8 degrees, wind blowing 40 trees broken and snapped off and drifts everywhere. For those of you that were here for that know how crazy it was.Just wait 'til a week from Wednesday... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 To this day I still have never seen anything like that night here. I remember looking at the thermometer and it reading 8 degrees, wind blowing 40 trees broken and snapped off and drifts everywhere. For those of you that were here for that know how crazy it was. Easily the most impressive (and earliest that I remember) Arctic front I've experienced, until Dec 2008 here. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 NAM still seems to also like the slower/weaker solution for Thursday.King NAM! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 I guess it's possible. At this point it would be intensity-dependent. It really looks like it is going to dry out during the evening. I would love to see a snow shower later, but don't think it is going to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 It really looks like it is going to dry out during the evening. I would love to see a snow shower later, but don't think it is going to happen.Glad to see SOMEONE here giving us the harsh dose of reality we all need. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Still light snow Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 37 in downtown Silverton. About to head up the hill... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 I like the optimism! I have a weird feeling the CZ won't materialize, but I would be happy to be wrong.Wil see how good the EURO is tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 37 in downtown Silverton. About to head up the hill...I just passed out in anticipation then woke back up. Let us know when you get there!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 To this day I still have never seen anything like that night here. I remember looking at the thermometer and it reading 8 degrees, wind blowing 40 trees broken and snapped off and drifts everywhere. For those of you that were here for that know how crazy it was. Yeah, it was hawt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Glad to see SOMEONE here giving us the harsh dose of reality we all need.I'm just saying what most of the models show. Just some real light showers around. Probably not good enough for snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 NAM still seems to also like the slower/weaker solution for Thursday.18z NAM has 522 thickness all the way down to Roseburg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 I'm just saying what most of the models show. Just some real light showers around. Probably not good enough for snow.Sure it's a long shot. Even having a dusting going into a cold, clear night is nice though. That heavy batch of precip not giving you anything? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 If we don't see a CZ developing or already developed by the time the Euro comes out, it won't be happening. Nothing but radar between now and then (with a side of the HRRR).The morning run showed a CZ right over king county. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 The Canadian ensemble mean was pretty good. Not quite as good as the GFS. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Sure it's a long shot. Even having a dusting going into a cold, clear night is nice though. That heavy batch of precip not giving you anything?I don't think there's gonna be much clearing tonight. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Jeez, Jesse's just getting pounded with harsh reality. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian guy Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 How were the Euro ensembles for the mid range? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 I don't think there's gonna be much clearing tonight.Probably enough broken cloudiness to let temps sneak to 32. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Jeez, Jesse's just getting pounded with harsh reality.I'm such an idiot! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 How were the Euro ensembles for the mid range? They're just coming out now, at least for me. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Euro ensemble mean looks awful at day ten. Raging westerly flow with 558dm heights. That's way out there though. A little better days 5-8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Probably enough broken cloudiness to let temps sneak to 32.Maybe, but there isn't much dry advection to speak of until tomorrow and things are pretty saturated. But yeah, any clearing could lead to some sweet a** 31.8's. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Up here in Vancouver BC, A snowfall warning was reissued. Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Sure it's a long shot. Even having a dusting going into a cold, clear night is nice though. That heavy batch of precip not giving you anything? It was just a bit too warm. I have seen plenty of snowflakes, but never really 100% snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Euro ensemble mean looks awful at day ten. Raging westerly flow with 558dm heights. That's way out there though. A little better days 5-8.Yeah day 5-8 real promising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Euro ensemble mean looks awful at day ten. Raging westerly flow with 558dm heights. That's way out there though. A little better days 5-8.Flatiron did bequeath to us the knowledge that 96.8% of the time the Pacific ALWAYS wins. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Oh wow total 180. WRF reverses course and EURO does oppositeIt appears the models cannot grasp whether the atmosphere will have enough juice in it to produce strong snowfall rates needed to produce accumulations worthy of chains required whips optional. Seems to be too little deep moisture at the moment.... C'mon mother nature be generous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just stopped by Puyallup...Typical... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Take it with a grain of salt but the latest HRRR shows a CZ-like band developing over King County around hour 2 and is already past us by hour 5. Of course right when 80% of King County is too warm for snow. Dry pretty much the rest of the night. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016120520/hrrr_ref_frzn_nwus_4.pngIt looks like a convergence is starting to form in that same spot on the radar right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 The JMA was one of the first models to see this current modified Arctic Blast so let's revisit what it's showing us in it's updated 12z run today. Good pattern setting up. We are close at days 7 and 10. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gifhttp://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_168_0850.gifhttp://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gifhttp://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_240_0850.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Good batch of new stuff coming in off coast. Low is spinning up nice. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 18z GFSBegins.... NOW Can we continue the trend with the GFS providing all kinds of goodies, cold air, and snow? 4 consecutive runs if the Drunk Uncle agrees. Unless he has a moment of sobriety. I hope not. Feel free to play along (You may need to refresh pages)Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Its been snowing good here for the last couple hours despite very weak radar returns. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 It was just a bit too warm. I have seen plenty of snowflakes, but never really 100% snow.We actually had 100% snow that stuck here a few hours ago. But now lighter precip is moving in and it's more of a mix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Its been snowing good here for the last couple hours despite very weak radar returns.That must be pretty frustrating. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 18z doesn't wanna give the Puget Sound much of anything.. Comparison to 12z 12z:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120512/gfs_asnow_nwus_5.png 18z:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120518/gfs_asnow_nwus_5.png Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 3" at my sister's place in metro Vancouver Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 18z doesn't wanna give the Puget Sound much of anything.. Comparison to 12z 12z:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120512/gfs_asnow_nwus_5.png 18z:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120518/gfs_asnow_nwus_5.pngOuch glad it's one run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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