December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luterra]

Having a hard time getting down to freezing here tonight, holding at 33 with 27 DP and no wind in Corvallis.  WSW could bust, though there will probably be some wet bulb cooling with the onset of precip that will make some ice.

[FroYoBro]

Still looks good for me. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Serious question for serious times.  When you and the wife are having a glass of wine on the patio and she remarks 'nice sunset' do you reply 'reminds me of 7/6/94'? 

 

Pretty much...I do the same at work too. I do it in other facets of my life. I had a state licensing review at one of my work sites the other day. I said "Yes, your last onsite at this location was 12/27/2014."

[Deweydog]

Still a gorge wall signature. Hmmmm.

[ShawniganLake]

Awesome day here. High of only 29F after a morning low of 20F. Crystal clear skies and light winds with the snow still covering everything.

 

Temps have dropped quickly this evening. Currently sitting at 19F.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still looks good for me. 

 

This meaningless map has improved a lot for me too...Showed me getting shafted before. Now a few inches. Wowzers!

[FroYoBro]

Pendleton is down to 13. Some colder air is starting to rip through the gorge. 

[Jesse]

Down to 34 at PDX. Better than I'd expected by now.

I was gonna say. Only one degree above your low!

 

When 925s over DLS are in the -10c range PDX can generally be near freezing even with a strong east wind, I have found.

[Perturbed Member]

I think we still see snow tomorrow.

 

Me too. No matter what happens though, I have to say it is pretty disappointing how messy the models have been in locking down the strength and  track of this low. I was hoping we could do a little better within 24 hours but we have models changing details by non-trivial amounts even now.

[Front Ranger]

Much better at day 4-5. Cold again.

 

Models are really struggling with this pattern.

[crf450ish]

People at my work laugh at me and cannot understand how I can recall certain things in the past and the actual day they happened. A few have actually researched the dates I've spouted off regarding when things or events happened and were shocked to discover I was spot on. Idk it just sticks in my head.

[Deweydog]

Much better at day 4-5. Cold again.

 

Models are really struggling with this pattern.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UH01FhqMdc8

[luvssnow_spokane]

Colder on Sunday - Monday....

 

Monday... Some serious cold air leaking in from up north.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Hey, -28C in southern BC at hour 105. Don't see that every day.

[crf450ish]

Pendleton is down to 13. Some colder air is starting to rip through the gorge.

6 degrees in Ritzville.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z looks pretty bad, even up here; the low is just too far north and too far offshore. Hopefully the outflow holds out better than expected. Looking at temperature observations there's some very cold air at the key outflow sources and strong outflow is occurring all the way up to Prince Rupert.

[BLI snowman]

I still like 3-4" for here tomorrow. Going to be marvelous.

[Deweydog]

Larch is gusting to 46 and 29 degrees. Brrr.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like the mother load of cold want to descend on us...  ?? 

 

Maybe??

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Tuesday... Brrrrr!

 

 

 

 

[chopper 918]

Since everyone else is chiming in on their hi/lo's for today. 30 with a dew point of 20 here. Made it up to 35 today.

[The Swamp]

Colder on Sunday - Monday....

 

Monday... Some serious cold air leaking in from up north.

 

gfs_T850_us_18.png

 

It's leaking in until it isn't.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Not bad...

 

 

[Deweydog]

Good god.

 

Make up your f*cking mind!

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's leaking in until it isn't.

Probably all slide east.  <_>

[FroYoBro]

That is a pretty nice backdoor blast. 

[Phil]

Only two years with Bering Sea Ridges as strong as the one progged (in December)..2008 and 2013. Both went on to be solid winters in the PNW.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's leaking in until it isn't.

Wont leak to your area.

[Goducks09]

Not bad...

 

gfs_z500a_namer_21.png

 

We've played this game before.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

Here comes the warm a** push...    Just seems weird...

 

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Good god.

 

Make up your f*cking mind!

 

I second this motion.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

We've played this game before.  

yep! lol  To often... I keep coming back for more too. I think I have an addiction problem

[Phil]

Isn't bainbridgekid going to be in Chicago for this blast? He's gonna freeze his arse off if the 00z GFS has its way.

[TT-SEA]

WRF pretty much splits the band tomorrow night with very little precip from Tacoma northward... except the Hood Canal.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/pcp1.30.0000.gif

[The Swamp]

Probably all slide east.  <_>

 

This.

[Deweydog]

I second this motion.

Getting into unprecedented territory.

 

Kind of reminds me of December 1998 back in the MRF days. It picked up on that blast about nine days out, then about four days out it disappeared for a day, then came back.

 

This seems worse, will probably end worse.

[snow_wizard]

Amazing how short of notice we are getting with these things. Now we have an Arctic outbreak shown before day 5. Looks like the mega block stays put. Until it leaves we will get periodic bursts of cold.

[seattleweatherguy]

Here comes the warm a** push... Just seems weird...

 

That's 18z 4pm and green isn't over Seattle hmmm. And WRF ouch which model to trust this time

gfs_T850_nwus_24.png

[BLI snowman]

GEM way better for tomorrow.

[snow_wizard]

Here comes the warm a** push...    Just seems weird...

 

gfs_T850_nwus_24.png

It still gets really cold. We might even get snow out of that. It may trend even colder too. If we get enough opportunities we will get this snow monkey off our backs.