Weather101 Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Everything will be ok.. It will get cold enough for snow. All that matters Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Really baffling to look at the GFS analogs tonight. Almost all of them are from events that actually worked out to be very cold and snowy. Very likely something is a little bit off on this run. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Jim will decide when/if it's okay to freak the **** out. Until then take it out on your spouse/significant other/dog. D**n right! This is going to work out. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I guess it's my tendency to play devils advocate when people are being overly optimistic or unrealistic. I like to bring people down to earth, sorry if that comes off as negative but it is a part of opinionated discussion.Yes much of the pessimism tonight has been completely rational. Lol. There is such a thing as a middle ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goducks09 Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Euro running. I suppose it's too late to install padded walls in the forum? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 PDX WX Analysis https://www.facebook.com/groups/pdx.wx.analysis Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 00z GFS ensembles fairly close to 18z. Maybe a hair better. 18z: -5c or below starting Jan 1-Jan 8, bottoming at -11c at Jan 3, raising to -7c around Jan 5, then back down to -8/-9c around Jan 6. 00z: -5c or below starting Jan 1-Jan 9, bottoming at -10/-11c at Jan 3, raising to -8c around Jan 5, then back down to -9c around Jan 6. Not that bad.Yeah. Based on the 00z GFS Op you would have thought this would have been milder. It's actually slightly better than 18z for duration. After the 3rd the Op was an outlier. Note the strong blast for Yakima too. I would of course like to see colder members showing up on the 6z, 12z tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 On one model.Yes, only one model.. the model that picked up on This coming cold wave before the Euro...is it the first to see what we do not want first too? We shall see ... history shows us that often those little incremental runs we call outliers or waffling end up being the trend setters we try to ignore until they smack us in the face and tell us to take off our road colored glasses. Again, I do not know what will happen with certainty but I am far from believing that this is going to be something historic or even mildly snowy. BUT I am hopeful! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Really baffling to look at the GFS analogs tonight. Almost all of them are from events that actually worked out to be very cold and snowy. Very likely something is a little bit off on this run.You nailed it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Ensemble looks okay, slightly improved. Crisis averted.Yeah, feels fair to say that the GFS is a growing outlier at the moment. Euro will be of amazingly critical importance. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Euro running. I suppose it's too late to install padded walls in the forum?I know, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Yes, only one model.. the model that picked up on This coming cold wave before the Euro...is it the first to see what we do not want first too? We shall see ... history shows us that often those little incremental runs we call outliers or waffling end up being the trend setters we try to ignore until they smack us in the face and tell us to take off our road colored glasses. Again, I do not know what will happen with certainty but I am far from believing that this is going to be something historic or even mildly snowy. Actually the ECMWF ensemble picked up on it first. Hasn't wavered at all. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 00z EuroDay 2 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122800/048/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I guess it's my tendency to play devils advocate when people are being overly optimistic or unrealistic. I like to bring people down to earth, sorry if that comes off as negative but it is a part of opinionated discussion.In my opinion, the people who are optimistic or positive have good reasons to back them up (model biases, ensembles, etc). Your reason for being negative however, is because you want to "bring people down to earth". Doesn't make sense to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 You have to keep in mind the CPC just today made about the coldest 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks I've ever seen for this area. They aren't wish casting. If you'll recall I made the call for a New Years cold wave days ago.The CPC doesn't make temperature outlooks, just probabilities of temperatures above or below normal. The bluer or more purple they are, the higher the chance of seeing a below normal period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Actually the ECMWF ensemble picked up on it first. Hasn't wavered at all.ECMWF Ensemble has also statistically been performing the best Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Model comparison. Day 2. 00z EURO cut-off low is 200 miles further west than 00z GFS and it is retrograding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Day 3 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122800/072/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 A not so good Euro run would really shake this place up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Compared to GFS, Block 100 miles further west, better tilt, cut-off 200 miles further west/northwest 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 A not so good Euro run would really shake this place up Weenies on suicide watch. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Pretty solid signal. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 In my opinion, the people who are optimistic or positive have good reasons to back them up (model biases, ensembles, etc). Your reason for being negative however, is because you want to "bring people down to earth". Doesn't make sense to meI would argue having a major model trending in a bad direction a reason to base my opinion on. I would also argue that people who are optimistic are that way oftentimes because they desire a certain outcome. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Day 4 Arctic trough nice phasing with Hudson's Bay vortex. Cut-off low MUCh further west than GFS http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122800/096/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 European looks Canadian. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 European looks Canadian. we need to get Trump on board with "making the gfs great again" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Day 4 Arctic trough nice phasing with Hudson's Bay vortex. Cut-off low MUCh further west than GFS http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122800/096/500h_anom.na.pngSo far so good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Cut-off low is probably 400 miles further west than GFS and it's sitting centered right under the base of the block. GFS was under the right quadrant. HUGE differences 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I would argue having a major model trending in a bad direction a reason to base my opinion on. I would also argue that people who are optimistic are that way oftentimes because they desire a certain outcome.The gfs has been great, up until ~5 days out, then the Euro seems to swoop in and take over. Will it work that way everytime? No. Will it work that way this time around? We'll soon find out. Of course people are going to be optimistic when the depicted pattern favors their location. Do you get bummed out when you're getting snow but others aren't? No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 European looks Canadian.You can tell as early as the Friday shortwave. That thing is like a crystal ball. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 This looks like it may be better than last nights 00z euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 This looks like it may be better than last nights 00z euroSomeone needs to bring you back down to earth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Everyone should be able to sleep ok. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Day 5 still want this further offshore, but it's okay. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122800/120/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Everyone should be able to sleep ok.I guarantee there will be at least 2-3 crap runs that leave Andrew under his bed in the fetal position tomorrow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 America is off on its own with this one. Sort of like the early stages of World Wars I and II. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I guarantee there will be at least 2-3 crap runs that leave Andrew under his bed in the fetal position tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Looks to be moving toward the gfs at least compared to last nights euro run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 It's all about the Friday shortwave. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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