Tom Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Are we on tap to see another widespread significant weekend Snow storm??? It's the pattern that keeps on giving and gladly falling on a weekend and primarily during the daytime so we can enjoy the snow blowing around! Models are converging on a wave skirting the Rockies and developing over the central Plains. Current guidance isn't to bullish on snowfall in the NE region, but that may very well change if the system organizes better earlier on. 12z GGEM snowfall... http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016120612/132/snku_acc.us_mw.png 12z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Lollipop foot totals. Impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Ggem and GFS look really similar. I wonder if the Euro is going to ruin the fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 The overnight AFD out of MSP was kind of surprising. They said qpf amounts look unimpressive for this weekend. Pops come back into the forecast Saturday-Sunday with a separateshortwave potentially affecting the area, but the long termguidance disagrees on how this system will be handled and theevolution of the overall pattern. The GFS/EC at least both agreeon a warm air advection band of snow moving through as the systemapproaches, so included at least chance wording in the forecast.At this point, QPF is not impressive for this period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 The overnight AFD out of MSP was kind of surprising. They said qpf amounts look unimpressive for this weekend. Pops come back into the forecast Saturday-Sunday with a separateshortwave potentially affecting the area, but the long termguidance disagrees on how this system will be handled and theevolution of the overall pattern. The GFS/EC at least both agreeon a warm air advection band of snow moving through as the systemapproaches, so included at least chance wording in the forecast.At this point, QPF is not impressive for this period.I can see that for MSP, but places E/SE of their region has had an uptick in precip amounts every 12 hours via the ensembles. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016120612/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_19.png Overall, it's still looking like a juicy event... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016120612/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 12z runs look fairly identical. Wonder what the Euro is gonna spit out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Ggem and GFS look really similar. I wonder if the Euro is going to ruin the fun.12z runs look fairly identical. Wonder what the Euro is gonna spit out. Hoping the "new and improved" Euro has this problem going on: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Hoping the "new and improved" Euro has this problem going on: 20161121 butthead.jpgLol ya worlds apart on the weekend. Thats for sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 From what I can see, 12z Euro has a stronger southern wave Sunday/Sunday night that tracks from SE CO to S OH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 I can see that for MSP, but places E/SE of their region has had an uptick in precip amounts every 12 hours via the ensembles. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016120612/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_19.png Overall, it's still looking like a juicy event... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016120612/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_23.pngyeah it's looking pretty good for their warning forecast area. really seems to be underplaying it, but i guess there is still almost 5 days so they must be playing it conservative Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Looks like a Northern Iowa special at this moment, but still plenty of time for things to change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 From what I can see, 12z Euro has a stronger southern wave Sunday/Sunday night that tracks from SE CO to S OH. Been referring to this as a "clipper" cuz the snow shield orientation reminds me of that. But, what is this exactly, a Colorado Low?? I would say the ECM (00z) with its track through PA is way off on this one Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Yup, this has potential to be widespread accumulating snowfall. A lot of people on this forum will get some appreciable snows. It turns brutal next week. Now, that's arctic air. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Been referring to this as a "clipper" cuz the snow shield orientation reminds me of that. But, what is this exactly, a Colorado Low??Its more of an open pacific wave on the GFS at least. Euro digs it slight more into a colorado low. For sure not a clipper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Its more of an open pacific wave on the GFS at least. Euro digs it slight more into a colorado low. For sure not a clipper Got it - thx (strange set-up tbh) Euro surface map still gives mby decent stuff. As long as the SLP stays south of me, that'll be the key. Have bad flash-backs to Dec 2010 storm though. I-80 and north was golden EXCEPT for SWMI where the turd went through a re-development phase and my foot became a 4" slop-fest. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Euro snow map anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Was hoping CPC would show something promising in their update, but NO. It's at the end of their 3-7 day range, but I'm sure they're still feeling the model burn from the west lakes cutter no-show. Can't blame 'em really. Edit - guess I missed this from GRR's morning AFD However 00Z Gfs/ecmwf guidance is insomewhat better agreement in showing potential for a synoptic snowevent Saturday night and Sunday with several inches of snowaccumulation possible then.Snow may linger Monday as there is potential for a stronger low todevelop over the southern plains and move northeast into the OhioValley/mid Atlantic regions Sunday night into Monday. Thenorthwestern periphery of the snow shield with that system maylinger over our fcst area Monday. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 I realize that this past Sunday's snow was a surprising over achiever, but which model handled it best? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 I realize that this past Sunday's snow was a surprising over achiever, but which model handled it best?Once we got inside 48 hours, GFS/NAM did well. Thus far, trends have been coming in wetter and not drier which is a positive. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 I realize that this past Sunday's snow was a surprising over achiever, but which model handled it best?Btw, are you still in the snow plow biz??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Yep, Sunday kicked things off for me. I'm looking forward to a busy season! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Yep, Sunday kicked things off for me. I'm looking forward to a busy season!Can I get a big...."Amen"! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 the EPS members almost completely dis-favor the operational. The control is in full support, but the lack of members supporting the OP is astonishing. Most favor the GFS Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Another solid hit on 18z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Map money? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 18z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Extreme NE IL not getting the same love as the rest of Northern Illinois. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Looking pretty locked in up this way. Time will tell. Headed to Lambeau on Sun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Extreme NE IL not getting the same love as the rest of Northern Illinois.Might be overdone from the warm tongue, maybe the cold wins over...lower ratios???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 18z GFS advertising a very conducive speed max for this system. It's been trending on a bit of a "buckle" to it... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120618/gfs_uv250_us_20.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Hoping this thing doesn't keep trending south; MSP is about to fall out of this bullseye. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 GFS very consistent with snow placement. Ive been right on the southern edge of the 6" mark the past few runs. Hope it doesnt trend north cuz thats a nasty cut off just south of me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 6, 2016 Report Share Posted December 6, 2016 This couldn't be a more perfect track for us, yet somehow it gives us nothing. Give me a break. What will it take for this thing to amp up sooner? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Already have SNOW LIKELY for Sat night in my zone. That's bold as sh*t for GRR! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 If you got missed to the east on the last round of snow, I'd say you're in a more favorable place for this event overall given the slow retrogression of the pattern. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 (edited) This couldn't be a more perfect track for us, yet somehow it gives us nothing. Give me a break. What will it take for this thing to amp up sooner? If you got missed to the east on the last round of snow, I'd say you're in a more favorable place for this event overall given the slow retrogression of the pattern. fwiw - Michael Clark tweeted that he sees an earlier phase Sat over NE. Run with it.. Edited December 7, 2016 by jaster220 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 This one is mineLies. It's actually mine. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 @ Tom Is this drying out some? You said that qpf was on the rise but latest maps showing lower snow totals?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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