Andrew NE Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Looking good, for most. Feel for the KC and OK people; hell, I still feel for NE and C. IA, b/c this could easily change---wish we were 36 hours out or less. But, it's nice to seeYou nailed it, lol. Wish it was Thursday night! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Second piece has big time potential...blizzard like conditions along the Lake Michigan shoreline in WI...I wish the euro would jump on board. I am glad I have learned to take each model run with a grain of salt. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Low seemed to sit in Colorado longer while deepening. Am I seeing that correctly? For those with more knowledge, what changed so much on this run for the difference? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Very close to having blizzard conditions in E NE/IA with wind gusts of 35-40mph for a 6 hour period. Nice development. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Even though GGEM is south and weaker with surface low the waa snows look great Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Even though GGEM is south and weaker with surface low the waa snows look greatIf thats the low end of potential. We doing well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 The temperatures that follow this system..... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121300/138/sfct.conus.png Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 If thats the low end of potential. We doing wellI think the low end for us is 6 or so but if gfs is right sky is the limit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Low seemed to sit in Colorado longer while deepening. Am I seeing that correctly? For those with more knowledge, what changed so much on this run for the difference?I'd like to see more model runs if this is a trend or not, but it seems the GFS hangs back the energy longer which produces a stronger low pressure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 The temperatures that follow this system..... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121300/138/sfct.conus.pngYa the system winds up like the gfs is will pull the hell out of the cold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Miserable cold after to top it all off . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 I'd like to see more model runs if this is a trend or not, but it seems the GFS hangs back the energy longer which produces a stronger low pressure.I would love to see that trend in future runs also. Thanks for the info Tom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 GFS spits out .84" QPF for DSM for the event. The Kuchera gave us 12" even so only 12-13:1 ratios if my math right, which it probably isn't. I think we'll have higher ratios on the back side of system; however good luck measuring in 30-40mph winds. LOL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Miserable cold after to top it all off .As much as this has come south in the last few days, I don't think we have seen the last of the changes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 I'd like to see more model runs if this is a trend or not, but it seems the GFS hangs back the energy longer which produces a stronger low pressure.Slower is better as low as the high to the north plays ball. It does on the gfs. Not so much on thw ggem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 That would be rip city under that band in Wisco, esp along the lake with Lehs...very cold 850's... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121300/gfs_mslp_wind_ncus_21.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121300/gfs_T850_ncus_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Slower, stronger but pretty much same track. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Slower is better as low as the high to the north plays ball. It does on the gfs. Not so much on thw ggemRide the GFS with love??? Haha...its been the go-to model...hope to see the Euro come on board tonight... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Would think the zr threat would be high to the east and maybe ne of that low as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Would think the zr threat would be high to the east and maybe ne of that low as wellYa, I see that warm tongue creeping up pretty far north on the ensembles also... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Only 3 days of model watching or so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Local met Brant Miller was geeking off of the 18z GFS model run...Skilling is having fun also! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 GGEM actually looks similar to gfs but it ends up weakening the low Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 GGEM actually looks similar to gfs but it ends up weakening the low Its closing to being better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Anyone got precip maps for CMC? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Looks like the overruning is further north on the Canadian, at least initially. Getting pushed ironically toward the Canadian border---those greedy bastards 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just got a subscription to IWM for this storm. Better not fail me now. Here's the CMC snowfall: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Weaker on the CMC, but at least it gives snow to KC and parts of OK! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Here's the snow on CMC for Central OK up through central NE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 It got close... http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121300/102/prateptype.us_mw.png http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121300/114/prateptype.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 GFS Ensembles: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121300/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_19.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121300/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Ukie--- don't know why any others do not post the Ukie ,, but my .02 is that its much better then the CMC... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Euro #'s- MSP-FRI 12Z 16-DEC -15.2 -12.9 1023 80 99 0.01 539 522 FRI 18Z 16-DEC -10.7 -12.2 1016 71 100 0.01 541 528 SAT 00Z 17-DEC -10.5 -12.2 1010 85 97 0.26 538 531 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -10.9 -14.6 1007 86 97 0.18 534 528 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -12.7 -17.2 1010 80 95 0.03 531 523 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -16.0 -19.2 1018 62 98 0.01 527 513OMA-THU 18Z 15-DEC -7.6 -12.2 1031 38 99 0.01 553 529 FRI 00Z 16-DEC -6.9 -9.9 1025 34 76 0.01 555 535 FRI 06Z 16-DEC -7.0 -8.6 1021 26 78 0.00 556 540 FRI 12Z 16-DEC -3.6 -4.8 1014 33 56 0.00 556 545 FRI 18Z 16-DEC -1.1 -1.3 1006 65 39 0.02 552 547 SAT 00Z 17-DEC -1.8 -1.0 999 91 53 0.07 548 548 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -2.9 -5.3 1002 86 59 0.03 546 544 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -8.7 -15.1 1012 64 84 0.01 543 534 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -13.6 -19.6 1021 54 97 0.01 538 522 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -16.3 -22.2 1029 53 81 0.05 532 511DSM-FRI 00Z 16-DEC -8.6 -11.4 1029 36 100 0.01 551 529 FRI 06Z 16-DEC -7.7 -9.2 1025 34 89 0.00 553 534 FRI 12Z 16-DEC -5.9 -7.1 1019 31 76 0.00 554 540 FRI 18Z 16-DEC -2.8 -2.6 1011 47 48 0.01 553 544 SAT 00Z 17-DEC -3.8 -2.1 1002 85 66 0.11 548 546 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -3.0 -1.5 1000 91 63 0.09 546 546 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -6.1 -9.5 1007 77 73 0.01 544 539 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -10.7 -16.9 1015 60 87 0.01 541 529 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -17.3 -19.1 1024 62 95 0.06 534 516 SUN 06Z 18-DEC -20.6 -22.0 1031 64 20 0.01 530 507 ORD-SAT 00Z 17-DEC -6.4 -5.7 1014 71 99 0.04 549 539 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -3.5 -3.7 1003 84 91 0.24 546 543 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -1.5 -0.1 1000 95 61 0.12 547 547 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -2.4 -1.3 1003 85 67 0.06 547 545 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -6.9 -8.8 1009 80 98 0.07 543 537 SUN 06Z 18-DEC -11.3 -13.7 1015 78 93 0.01 538 526 MSN-SAT 00Z 17-DEC -9.0 -9.1 1012 78 100 0.08 545 536 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -7.3 -7.8 1004 89 98 0.24 541 539 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -6.8 -6.3 1002 90 75 0.04 542 540 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -8.1 -10.7 1007 76 89 0.01 540 535 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -10.0 -14.3 1011 76 94 0.06 535 526 SUN 06Z 18-DEC -17.7 -18.3 1020 68 76 0.03 528 513OSH-SAT 00Z 17-DEC -7.5 -11.6 1014 83 99 0.10 543 533 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -5.4 -10.4 1005 88 96 0.34 539 535 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -5.8 -9.5 1002 89 82 0.07 539 537 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -7.5 -11.3 1005 78 97 0.03 537 534 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -6.6 -14.8 1009 78 91 0.03 533 526 SUN 06Z 18-DEC -14.9 -19.1 1018 71 83 0.03 525 512 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Ukie--- don't know why any others do not post the Ukie ,, but my .02 is that its much better then the CMC... GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif I don't because the Canucks are easier to make fun of on here than the Brits. It's hard to type out the British accent and have it understood. That's what it's all aboooowt 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 I don't because the Canucks are easier to make fun of on here than the Brits. It's hard to type out the British accent and have it understood. That's what it's all aboooowtIt's all the same, eh? 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Even some love for the folks in KC!!MCIFRI 18Z 16-DEC 0.7 3.0 1007 74 32 0.01 559 554 SAT 00Z 17-DEC 4.5 5.7 997 93 33 0.02 555 558 SAT 06Z 17-DEC 5.8 7.1 995 98 49 0.00 553 558 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -2.1 -3.7 1006 83 45 0.01 552 547 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -6.7 -12.5 1015 57 95 0.02 549 537 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -12.2 -17.2 1024 61 89 0.09 543 525 SUN 06Z 18-DEC -15.9 -19.3 1033 50 3 0.03 540 516 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Euro--- again 10:1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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