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12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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South side of KC now might get advisory snows???

 

FWIW, that is strong signal for a lake plume  targeting NW IN (aka, IndianaJohn's back yard)...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_14.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_15.png

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

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12z GFS...still looking decent for Chitown...clear Lehs signal showing up.  Usually, it's Lake county and points north that do well in these situations.  Might get some backside lake enhanced snow for a period when northerly winds lock in.

 

850's crash on the back side and a slight N/NE flow develops.  Might even tug down lake moisture from Lake Superior and double down on MKE/NE IL....

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121412/gfs_mslp_wind_ncus_14.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121412/gfs_T850_ncus_14.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121412/gfs_mslp_wind_ncus_15.png

Northern IL still in the game at least on the GFS. Just need to keep inching south on future runs to be in the good stuff.

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Niko Veteran

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Northern IL still in the game at least on the GFS. Just need to keep inching south on future runs to be in the good stuff.

Agree 100% :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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South side of KC now might get advisory snows???

 

FWIW, that is strong signal for a lake plume  targeting NW IN (aka, IndianaJohn's back yard)...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_14.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_15.png

 

:o Berrien looks to get smoked as well. What's all that SN in Kansas and MO?? Is the GFS starting to see an actual NEG-tilted storm with Defo-band 2nd wave of snows? 

 

I think when final energy gets in balloons, we'll see this fully ramp and be the true BD that the energy involved would normally indicate.  B)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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NAM/GFS with 12+ here now

 

My gut tells me that'll be chump change amts by the time this is all played out. Between LES before, system snows (2 waves), and LEhS/LES on the backside, somewhere on the west side of MI is going to be BURIED! 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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12z GFS showing a little better phasing of the secondary energy into the overall flow which enhances the snowfall for those in the southern Plains/Midwest region.

 

12z from yesterday...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121312/gfs_z500_vort_us_19.png

 

 

Today's 12z run...you can see both branches tilting a little better.  A very small feature that can have some implications in future runs.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121412/gfs_z500_vort_us_15.png

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Niko Veteran

Niko

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I am skeptical about any mixing issues where I am. I think that an all snow event is looking likely IMBY. From DTW on southward, ice can get involved. :blink:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
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:o Berrien looks to get smoked as well. What's all that SN in Kansas and MO?? Is the GFS starting to see an actual NEG-tilted storm with Defo-band 2nd wave of snows? 

 

I think when final energy gets in balloons, we'll see this fully ramp and be the true BD that the energy involved would normally indicate.  B)

A wrap up may also mean that it tracks a bit more north west. Still got one weenie card this far south it looks like.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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That second wave is not even getting full sampling yet.  Most likely not till 12z Friday.  It's slowly creeping its way onto the west coast.

 

You can see it meandering off the coast right now due west of OR/WA using the 12z GFS...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121412/gfs_z500_vort_namer_1.png

 

 

Then it finally gets absorbed into the flow 18z Friday...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121412/gfs_z500_vort_namer_10.png

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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That second wave is not even getting full sampling yet.  Most likely not till 12z Friday.  It's slowly creeping its way onto the west coast.

 

You can see it meandering off the coast right now due west of OR/WA using the 12z GFS...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121412/gfs_z500_vort_namer_1.png

 

 

Then it finally gets absorbed into the flow 18z Friday...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121412/gfs_z500_vort_namer_10.png

 

Some of the AFD's have mentioned that the main energy's out in no-man's land and without recon drop-sonds, it's sorta a "best guess" scenario wrt if the models are reflecting it properly (strength, timing). COULD be a very pleasant surprise in store when it gets fully absorbed. COULD be back to those BD amounts flashed on earlier runs. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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james1976 Veteran

james1976

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Posted

12z GFS showing a little better phasing of the secondary energy into the overall flow which enhances the snowfall for those in the southern Plains/Midwest region.

 

12z from yesterday...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121312/gfs_z500_vort_us_19.png

 

 

Today's 12z run...you can see both branches tilting a little better. A very small feature that can have some implications in future runs.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121412/gfs_z500_vort_us_15.png

Good catch. We're still 2 days out. Still time for changes!
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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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12z GGEM wrapping up a 994mb SLP down near KC...then tracks it towards INDY...

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121412/066/prateptype.us_mw.png

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121412/078/prateptype.us_mw.png

 

 

 

 

Impressive looking Lehs signal on the backside...could this be a trend for E WI/NE IL folks??? This set up would drive a lake plume for a quick 2-3 hour period into SE WI/NE IL with snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr. Seen this before but way to far out to put any stock into it.

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121412/090/prateptype.us_mw.png

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121412/090/sfcwind_mslp.us_mw.png

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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12z gfs looks a tick south with heavier snow band in IA compared to 6z run. About an inch more imby.

 

(2) GFS runs 1214 0z vs 12z:

 

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Niko Veteran

Niko

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By tomorrow, especially, late tomorrow, models will have a much better idea on this storm. :)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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So now GFS/GGEM give N IL warning snows....GGEM has shifted the heavy snow band quite a bit south since yesterday's 12z run and last nights 00z run.  IA/IL posters not out of the game just yet.

 

Yesterday's run...

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121400/138/snku_acc.conus.png

 

 

Today's...who do you believe???

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121412/126/snku_acc.conus.png

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Niko Veteran

Niko

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When the thread was started this was the 1st qpf map posted. Can we actually be going back to this original wetter look??

What a beauty of a map. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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So now GFS/GGEM give N IL warning snows....GGEM has shifted the heavy snow band quite a bit south since yesterday's 12z run and last nights 00z run.  IA/IL posters not out of the game just yet.

 

Yesterday's run...

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121400/138/snku_acc.conus.png

 

 

Today's...who do you believe???

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121412/126/snku_acc.conus.png

 

Massive improvements SN-wise for northern half of IN and OH. Lines up perfectly with CPC's map from yesterday tbh.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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12z GEFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121412/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_12.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121412/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_13.png

 

 

 

Uptick in qpf totals for the KC region and near the Lakes...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121412/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_17.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121412/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_14.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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The "Uccellini Effect"...nice jet structure right over the Lakes/Upper Midwest Friday night.Sat am period...right rear and left front exit regions of both jet streams maximizing lift potential...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121412/gfs-ens_uv250_us_12.png

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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What a beauty of a map. :D

 

 

The "Uccellini Effect"...nice jet structure right over the Lakes/Upper Midwest Friday night.Sat am period...right rear and left front exit regions of both jet streams maximizing lift potential...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121412/gfs-ens_uv250_us_12.png

 

Yeah, its hard to believe this won't be an upward trender towards game-time - it's got a LOT going for it. 

 

I could sorta believe those crazy d6+ amts that were shown for SMI if we had an actual Defo 2nd wave on top of the WAA snows, but that map does not reflect a swath where I've outlined in red??

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

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The Canadian has been the most generous with snow 

 

So now GFS/GGEM give N IL warning snows....GGEM has shifted the heavy snow band quite a bit south since yesterday's 12z run and last nights 00z run.  IA/IL posters not out of the game just yet.

 

Yesterday's run...

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121400/138/snku_acc.conus.png

 

 

Today's...who do you believe???

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121412/126/snku_acc.conus.png

 Should I start singing "Oh Canada"?  I have noticed they give us a more than the other models, but I have heard many of our members that don't buy the Canadian model.  

 

Also, the local ABC TV Meteorologist - Channel 8 from Lincoln this morning showed a Euro run of 3-5 inches covering all of of Northern Kansas through the Southern half of Nebraska.  I am not sure what he would have been using since I have not seen a Euro showing anywhere near that amount.  

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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:D  :D cant help but be all smiles here. GRR has expanded the WWA to even include mby plus they've taken the dreaded MIX out of the storm for Saturday

 

all within the past hour..

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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