CentralNebWeather Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Don't be surprised and expect nothing more than what is being shown...it's the Euro.Lately nothing surprises me and I expect less than is being shown until patterns change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 MKE just issued a Winter Storm Watch - 7-10 inches. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Same for GRB MKE just issued a Winter Storm Watch - 7-10 inches. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 12z Euro... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121412/ecmwf_T850_ncus_4.png Tom, what'd I miss here? WPC map is not showing a SLP there at hr 72. Does there map stop a bit earlier? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Not feeling good being on the southern end of the watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 15418336_1168594376565047_1966768609341482719_o.png Are they trying to balance krazy dude's map by posting the most conservative Euro, or what? Is that the only model they show? Just curious why peeps keep posting Euro-Scrooge's map? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 I am interesting in tonight's runs and also tomorrows. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Are they trying to balance krazy dude's map by posting the most conservative Euro, or what? Is that the only model they show? Just curious why peeps keep posting Euro-Scrooge's map? why don't you just take the gfs and run with it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 GFS! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 This storm has potential to over perform. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 why don't you just take the gfs and run with it? Oh, I am, and apparently Roger Smith likes it as well. Would love for his zealous calls to verify this time 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 18z NAM took a tick south it seems into N IL with the snow band from previous 12z run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Oh, I am, and apparently Roger Smith likes it as well. Would love for his zealous calls to verify this time 20161214 Roger Smith - pre sampling call.JPG @ DTW predicted 12". Bam!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Surprisingly, 18z NAM is the weakest of the bunch...1000mb near STL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Check that, was using Instantwxmaps...showing a 997mb near STL...MN/WI are the winners with the NAM.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Wow. Down to 3" imby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Hr 66 has a 997 in SW MissouriSurprisingly, 18z NAM is the weakest of the bunch...1000mb near STL... Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Big change from this morning. No defo band it appears Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 It appears the second wave with this system is going to be pretty lame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Winter is here in full force!!! 2 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Did the storm from last weekend already cycle around? Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Big change from this morning. No defo band it appearsStill has it but farther north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 I wonder if GFS will bunny hop north. It appeared to come a tick south last run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Still has it but farther northLooks like the SLP goes into N MI! ...highly suspect... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121418/namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_49.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Winter is here in full force!!! That is going to be a fun experience...the fluff will be blown around easily! Enjoy it! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Looks like the SLP goes into N MI! ...highly suspect... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121418/namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_49.png ...and here's an over-amped NAM run - shocker Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 My guess is north. Why not?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 12z GFS Para... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121412/gfsp_apcpn_us_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Para looks drier too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 It's the 18z NAM, two combination that raise caution. Even if it's within 72 hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Para looks drier too Para looks wetter too Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 NWS LaCrosse snow ratio disco. Snowfall from Fri afternoon into Sat morning looking like a given. Tricker part remains snow-water ratios and snowfall amounts. Higher PW values and deeper/stronger of the lift trends over the south 1/2 of the fcst area, with sounding showing a DGZ of 50-75mb. Across the north half, less moisture/lift (still plenty of broad/deep ascent), but the DGZ is as much as 200-400mb deep below 500mb. Model progs producing snow-liquid ratios of 10-12:1 over the south 1/3 of the fcst area to 18-20:1 over the north end. Given a rather uniform liquid precip production across the area Fri into Sat, these snow- liquid ratios produce 4-6 inches of snow across the S end of the fcst area, to 5 to 9 inches over the N 3/4 of the area. If the snow-liquid ratios end up different from the above values, total snowfall amounts could easily change by 2 to 3 inches (up across the south and down across the north). Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Why is NAM showing snow over NE? I thought they weren't getting any? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 The higher resoultion NAM models are pretty amped up compared to Op. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Para looks wetter tooProlly for you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Looks like it sucks to be me. Better luck with the next runs I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 LOT's note on the models and deformation: Have favored a blend of the GFSand EC which make good conceptual sense. This blend includes withQPF, with the GFS probably too high over too large of an area andEC too low at times given the system synoptics, especially in thenorthern CWA. The 20.12Z and 20.18Z NAM runs and recent SREF runsseem too far north with the system track, and given this is astill a Day 3 system when higher resolution models may struggle,have again preferred the global models. Deformation should increase over the regionSaturday afternoon 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Chug chug GFS 1 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Hahaha just like a movie all the models waiting until the end to let us know which way it's going. I really think a majority of us get a minimum 6-8" but wouldn't surprise me if we end up with a foot or a couple of inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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