Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 0z NAM... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121500/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 It almost looks like NAM is trying to develop a defo band towards the end... Am I seeing things? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Im not gonna see a flake by tomorrow's runs lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 HR 69: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121500/069/refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Ends up snowing all the way through 6z Sunday for some areas. Final totals on the NAM: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121500/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 NAM breaks out precip all the way from KS through WI http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121500/066/refcmp_ptype.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Well not a fan of that one. Not horrible though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Ends up snowing all the way through 6z Sunday for some areas. Final totals on the NAM: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121500/078/snku_acc.us_mw.pngLooking like best stuff north of here though the waa band orientation wont be set until at leadt friday morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Alright now lets not trend North. Just stay put NAM.Let the GFS do the work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Looking like best stuff north of here though the waa band orientation wont be set until at leadt friday morning Yeah, those are usually tricky and are not decided until it starts showing up on radar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Oh nice......NAM trying to bring that defo band back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Oh nice......NAM trying to bring that defo band back That's def. going to be the one thing to watch the next 24 hours as the storm comes onshore. Models sometimes under-estimate QPF like a few storms ago when they were only showing 1-3 and some places got nearly 10. We'll see how it develops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 That's def. going to be the one thing to watch the next 24 hours as the storm comes onshore. Models sometimes under-estimate QPF like a few storms ago when they were only showing 1-3 and some places got nearly 10. We'll see how it develops. Sampling coming in to play ball? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Yup. IIRC defo zones can often be last minute consolation prizes/over performers to the areas to the west/northwest of the surface low Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Sampling coming in to play ball?Sure could or it could kick us in the balls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Sure could or it could kick us in the ballsI think you are safe no matter what. would take a huge jump north to screw you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Only 60mi more north on the nam and I'm outta the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Everyone needs to chill, the CMC is right anyway. Nothing to worry about folks. 6-12" for us all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Only 60mi more north on the nam and I'm outta the game.The low on the NAM won't go 60 miles north. You're in a good spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Right now it looks like a dry slot over Chicago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Wagons north says the RPM... maybe 2" locally... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Gfs looking similar through 45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Put a fork in er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Train keeps on chugging north! Wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 994 central missouri at hour 57 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Wagons north says the RPM... maybe 2" locally...#sad! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Looks like it's gonna have a better defo band as wellGood sign Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Crushes eastern WI. 3-4 inches of snow in 3 hours with the 2nd wave that swings through at HR 66. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Crushes eastern WI. 3-4 inches of snow in 3 hours with the 2nd wave that swings through at HR 66.Good run. The lead low pressure is stronger than what gets left behind which is a new development Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Through 72: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121500/072/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 1.0+ qpf? WOW 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 1.0+ qpf? WOW It really develops that defo band as the storm passes. Low is stronger this run. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121500/072/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Nice run. Both GFS and NAM look a bit better tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 1.0+ qpf? WOW legit storm versus simply a WAA event Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Going to have to watch out for that dry air intrusion. It always bites someone hard and is often under forecasted, cutting totals way back. Seen it happen many times, sadly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 The lake will be your friend up north... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Going to have to watch out for that dry air intrusion. It always bites someone hard and is often under forecasted, cutting totals way back. Seen it happen many times, sadlyIt would be a welcome worry as it then says the low pressure system has developed a true storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 And here's the final totals: QPF: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121500/084/qpf_acc.us_mw.png Snow: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121500/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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