winterfreak Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Those ratios are just a tad overdone in my humble opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Those ratios are just a tad overdone in my humble opinion.Looks like around 18:1 on the northern flank near msp. Probably not to inflated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 WWA for me. Up to .10" of freezing drizzle tomorrow followed by 1-2" of snow Friday night and Saturday morning. I hope we can survive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Looks like around 18:1 on the northern flank near msp. Probably not to inflatedYeah, cold throughout all the layers of the atmosphere, so a very good looking DGZ: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Looks a little south with heavier qpf. I think this run was just a little colder keeping it mostly snow city on north.This is all to similar to what we had experienced last weekend. In order to get those 4-8" totals, we really need to bank on the defo band just like last weekend. If we can squeeze .25-.30qpf from that band with high ratios I can see 3-5" additional possibly from that if it transpires. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Good write up by LOT...here is just a small portion of it: Pattern recognition wise, the operational global model consensussurface low track on Saturday from near or just north of STL tonear LAF is favorable for significant snow accumulations innorthern Illinois (especially north of I-80), but the devil is inthe details. The open positive tilt nature of the upper wave isgiving the guidance fits in how coherent the precipitation shieldremains on Saturday, and with some of the mid-upper energy notsampled for today`s 12z RAOBS, further adjustments in the guidanceare likely tonight. If good snow rates continue, especiallyfar northern Illinois, then adding to concern for higher amountsFriday afternoon-evening, higher snow amounts are also possible.For this reason, continued issuing a Winter Storm Watch for thenorthern tier of counties of the CWA, but opted to issue anAdvisory for now, with potential based on trends needing toupgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 18z NAM Para showing the Lehs nicely for MKE... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2016121518/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_35.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2016121518/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_41.png Then it develops a meso scale low near MKE... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2016121518/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_44.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2016121518/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_49.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2016121518/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_60.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 Is anybody else's national weather service page messed up?? The warnings are shown on the national page but not the local pages. The observations are also not shown....., Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 Is anybody else's national weather service page messed up?? The warnings are shown on the national page but not the local pages. The observations are also not shown.....,Yeah. Thought it was just me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 DGZ of 500mb during the peak snowfall. I'm not sure I've seen one that deep before. This stuff is gonna fluff up in a hurry. Radar really lighting up already. Will be fighting some dry air So will take a bit to saturate the column, but nice to see this already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 Is anybody else's national weather service page messed up?? The warnings are shown on the national page but not the local pages. The observations are also not shown.....,I thought I had done something. It takes forever to load then you go to the national page. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 00z NAM looks better for N IL with the WAA snows...E/C Wisco & C MI look great also...looks like the SLP is weaker and tracks farther south... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 The NAM looks funky with the surface pattern. Though it's nice to see it get wetter for Chi metro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 Pretty good "thump" snow for the evening commute around 6:00pm... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121600/024/refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 00z NAM...develops a lake plume... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121600/048/refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 Nice defo band Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 The best run so far for Chicago... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121600/054/qpf_acc.us_mw.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121600/054/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 Run after Run, MSN/MKE/SBN get crushed... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 Run after Run, MSN/MKE/SBN get crushed...Yup MKE going with 12 inches of snow here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 Could probably remove "potential" from the thread title. Pretty safe bet it will show. 1 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 The way models have been flip flopping I will take 6" for NWI! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 The way models have been flip flopping I will take 6" for NWI!4-6" looks pretty doable for us. We're probably gonna need a colder trend or the second wave to trend better to get over 6", but keep an eye on tomorrow. If we're sitting at like 4" or 5" by midnight, then we're in really good shape to go over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 LOT update at 8:00pm "The 00ZNAM is starting to roll in and first 24 hours continues tostrongly support our going forecast of a quick hitting shotof accumulating (ill-timed for rush hour) snow." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 00z GFS is on board with a similar look as the NAM through HR 27... Edit: About 2mb weaker SLP near KC...998mb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 Stronger defo band than 18z? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 Defo band still looks good on the GFS...NE still showing a few inches and near KC... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 Not much change to things tonight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 Stronger defo band than 18z?At HR 45 it looks like a line of thunderstorms! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 Defo band still looks good on the GFS...NE still showing a few inches and near KC... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121600/039/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 It will definitely get nasty here in SEMI on Saturday with freezing drizzle on and off after my snowfall (6"+). Yikes! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 That looks sweet...stronger each run...12-hour snowfall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 Through 45: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121600/045/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 Milwaukee gets crushed this run. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121600/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 All of N IL with 6"+ of snowfall this run...some spots 10-12"... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 00z GFS...snowfall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 QPF: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121600/054/qpf_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 MKE gets 18"... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 16, 2016 Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 Rgem http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2016121600/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 12" mark creeping its way south of the cheddar curtain... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121600/054/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2016 Interesting couple of runs tonight so far... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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