January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I have to, all the way up to 18.

 

I think PDX finds a way to hit 24 but I could be optimistic.

They haven't been below 25 this winter so it could be a new benchmark!

 

But just one station. Longview and Salem have seen multiple teens already this winter. Along with many places in between.

[epiceast]

The lack of talk about forecast models is pretty surprising.. One loan mention of the EURO... You'd think we were looking at weeks of split flow coming up.. I can understand everyone is gun shy. But hey, we live for moments like these! This is why we spend our free time on a gosh darn weather forum. 

I try not to spend anytime in here but it's below 0 outside right now so I kinda have to.

[Brennan]

FWIW the 0z GFS and EURO are very similar in their progressions out to day 10. Minor details make all the difference in this setup though. The EURO digs energy offshore a little more than the GFS in the midrange which isn't favorable for us... At the very least it's going to be worth watching in the coming days, and slight improvements could mean big snows for western wa... and slight regression could mean. We're all 33 and winter cancel of course. 

[chopper 918]

PDX back up to 29 at the hour. This cold snap is really overachieving out there.

19 and dropping fast here.

[ShawniganLake]

Interesting wind patterns tonight. The outflow died down a bit this evening and things cooled down, but just kicked up again and the temperature rose above freezing and dewpoint has fallen. I noticed a similar thing happening in Abbotsford this evening, there must be some downsloping in play. The side of the city not currently exposed to outflow is much colder.

The wind is mostly calm here tonight and it's much colder. 22F. There is a pretty definitive warm line thru Greater Victoria. Snow cover may also be helping my neighbourhood some.

[Bryant]

FWIW the 0z GFS and EURO are very similar in their progressions out to day 10. Minor details make all the difference in this setup though. The EURO digs energy offshore a little more than the GFS in the midrange which isn't favorable for us... At the very least it's going to be worth watching in the coming days, and slight improvements could mean big snows for western wa... and slight regression could mean. We're all 33 and winter cancel of course. 

 

We have the support from GFS and CMC Ensemble

 

http://i.imgur.com/qc07gDe.png

 

http://i.imgur.com/DDAR6vV.png

[ShawniganLake]

We have the support from GFS and CMC Ensemble

 

http://i.imgur.com/qc07gDe.png

 

http://i.imgur.com/DDAR6vV.png

Interesting. An event like what the 0z Gfs is showing would put a nice exclamation point on a mediocre stretch of winter weather for most.

[Bryant]

Interesting. An event like what the 0z Gfs is showing would put a nice exclamation point on a mediocre stretch of winter weather for most.

 

Definitely a lot of potential. I would want to be in an outflow prone location to feel the safest at this point, such as northern whatcom county/lower BC. The super borderline stuff can be the most irritating, but most rewarding in the end if you're lucky 

[HighlandExperience]

Skeptical but nice to see

[Bryant]

NAM/GFS (and possibly others) flirt with the idea that far northern locations such as Vancouver Island, Vancouver, and northern Whatcom County could see some flakes falling tomorrow afternoon/evening. Precip is light, and the air would need to saturate, but something to watch none the less. Image valid tomorrow at 10pm

 

http://i.imgur.com/d6Cx2KL.png

[ShawniganLake]

NAM/GFS (and possibly others) flirt with the idea that far northern locations such as Vancouver Island, Vancouver, and northern Whatcom County could see some flakes falling tomorrow afternoon/evening. Precip is light, and the air would need to saturate, but something to watch none the less. Image valid tomorrow at 10pm

 

http://i.imgur.com/d6Cx2KL.png

Modelling suggests a trace-2" is pretty likely for Shawnigan Lake tomorrow night thru Friday morning. 0z NAM looked borderline for another 2-4" here Saturday.

[Jesse]

Pretty crazy that Troutdale was able to drop to 21 before midnight while PDX remained well mixed and is currently still hanging around 30.

 

23 here.

[whitechristmas]

Pretty crazy that Troutdale was able to drop to 21 before midnight while PDX remained well mixed and is currently still hanging around 30.

 

23 here.

How can PDX be 30 and Washougal (sea level) be 18? I've never seen a difference like that before. If the airport has an east wind, we should too. Seems a bit extreme.

[Perturbed Member]

06z NAM continues to maintain offshore flow the entire run for PDX north. All .60 in of QPF during the period is shown to be frozen precip and more ZR continuing at hr 84.

 

End of the run:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017010500/namconus_ref_frzn_wus_52.png

[Bryant]

06z GFS still showing potential for Vancouver Island, Vancouver, and northern Whatcom County tomorrow night and Friday

 

http://i.imgur.com/9sl54R6.png

[MossMan]

Currently 18F.

[Bryant]

Currently 18F.

 

13F here. Been impressively cold... cold enough that I need to go buy a mercury thermometer to make sure my station isn't way off lol

[Bryant]

The New Years Eve/Day snowfall has made this cold snap much more enjoyable. Still about 2-2.5"

 

http://i.imgur.com/GGUzXV0h.jpg

[MossMan]

16F with a DP of -2 currently.

[crf450ish]

What does solar have to say?

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 1 day

2017 total: 3 days (60%)

2016 total: 32 days (9%)

2015 total: 0 days (0%)

2014 total: 1 day (

2013 total: 0 days (0%)

2012 total: 0 days (0%)

2011 total: 2 days (

2010 total: 51 days (14%)

2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Updated 05 Jan 2017

[Gradient Keeper]

PDX finally lost the nagging east wind and has plummeted from 30 now to 19 !!!

 

down into teens baby YEAH

[FroYoBro]

PDX finally lost the nagging east wind and has plummeted from 30 now to 19 !!!

 

down into teens baby YEAH

 

Wow. I can't believe it. That drop from 30 to 24 a few hours ago is pretty sweet. 

[The Swamp]

Skeptical but nice to see

If I was you I wouldn't trust none of that modeling stuff. Just poke your head outside every 6 hours. Much more accurate.

[Tyler Mode]

13 degrees this morning in Battle Ground.  Wind is keeping it from going any lower.

[HighlandExperience]

13 degrees this morning in Battle Ground. Wind is keeping it from going any lower.

Chilly this morning. Quite a few teens.

 

I saw a 9 degree reading in the swamp!

[Dave]

10 degrees at my location.  I noticed Meachem is somewhat chilly at -27.

[FroYoBro]

Where is Jesse to celebrate teens at PDX? This is a cause for celebration!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some pretty impressive lows last night. I ended up hitting 13, wind never totally went calm... 

 

Scappoose 14

HIO 16

EUG 16

PDX 19

SLE 21

[SilverFallsAndrew]

East side

 

-29 North Powder

-27 Meacham

-22 Baker City

-26 Seneca

-21 Ukiah

[Goducks09]

Saturday/Sunday's low appears to hang out a bit further south on the 12z GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX hit at least 18. Wow. 

 

I believe they hit 18 in January 2007 as well. I will double check later. 

[Tyler Mode]

12.7 for a low here in Battle Ground. Only 7 years of records at this location, but this is my coldest January low temp.

[Timmy]

Only made it to 15 here, but it was there at 11pm and hung out near it all night. Impressive lows in the area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12.7 for a low here in Battle Ground. Only 7 years of records at this location, but this is my coldest January low temp.

 

I see Pearson Airfield hit 15. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only made it to 15 here, but it was there at 11pm and hung out near it all night. Impressive lows in the area.

 

Some foothill locations never lost the breeze. I hit 15 around 8pm last night and had bounced up to 19 at midnight when the breeze came back. Then it eventually died and I dropped to 13. 

[Front Ranger]

Some pretty impressive lows last night. I ended up hitting 13, wind never totally went calm... 

 

Scappoose 14

HIO 16

EUG 16

PDX 19

SLE 21

 

Nice. 

 

In Western WA...some of these will end up colder.

 

OLM: 12

Tacoma McChord: 12

Puyallup: 12

Shelton: 13

Arlington: 12

BLI: 17

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Overall I am pretty impressed with valley temps this morning and incredibly impressed with east side temps...Tonight should be as cold if not colder in many locations. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice. 

 

In Western WA...some of these will end up colder.

 

OLM: 12

Tacoma McChord: 12

Puyallup: 12

Shelton: 13

Arlington: 12

BLI: 17

 

Impressive! I was just about to check out W. WA lows actually.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 in The Dalles this morning too..

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The -27ºF at Meacham would appear to be an all-time record.

Previous record -25ºF on 2/26/2011.

 

They moved their OBS at Meacham at some point. The new location is about 300' higher I believe and doesn't get some of the extreme readings the old site got (It was in a bit of a frost hollow). I believe the all-time record at the old site was -48.