January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Dave]

I already told you. 3-5 inches for Eugene. You may be rain to start, though.

They must be looking at the 18z Dewey.

[Deweydog]

They must be looking at the 18z Dewey.

It has a massive sarcasm bias.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The low is already a 998mb low and was not forecasted to be that low until midnight. The one for Tuesday night.

[Tyler Mode]

21 years of record and the low of 13.4 on the 6th, at my Vancouver station was my lowest January temp ever. Previous was 13.8 degrees in 1996.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The low is already a 998mb low and was not forecasted to be that low until midnight. The one for Tuesday night.

This is a DJ post

[Timmy Supercell]

There is a 20' foot high snow pile in front of Olympic Inn... It's gonna be there until our first heat. 

 

I'm naming it Mt. St. Klamath.

[MossMan]

The low is already a 998mb low and was not forecasted to be that low until midnight. The one for Tuesday night.

Its going to shoot north giving all of Puget Sound/Western Wa area 4-8" PDX...rain. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is a DJ post

I was looking at the sat loop and to me it looked like that low was developing fast.

[HighlandExperience]

The low is already a 998mb low and was not forecasted to be that low until midnight. The one for Tuesday night.

Keep us updated. We need that to continue to get stronger.

[Blizzard777]

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hipacsat_None_anim.gif

I'm liking the potential from the satellite map

[Jesse]

I can't ever remember a Winter that had so much sustained cold and so many snow chances with so little actual snowfall.

It's definitely been awful. Give me 50 degree rain every day any day!

[Perturbed Member]

Its going to shoot north giving all of Puget Sound/Western Wa area 4-8" PDX...rain. 

 

By looking at the satellite, its pretty obvious it is headed to Lincoln City, OR where it will probably track east until it hits the cascades and then track NE.

[Deweydog]

Central Vancouver Island.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Central Vancouver Island.

For the love of all things white, I sure hope not!

[Timmy Supercell]

My yard pack went all the way down to 12-13". Even some spots down to 10".

 

I'm near 100% sure I'm not getting 2+ foot depths this winter. (Not long ago this was a huge possibility. It easily could have ended up between 24-30")

[MossMan]

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hipacsat_None_anim.gif

I'm liking the potential from the satellite map

Sure looks like its jogging north! 

[FroYoBro]

Sure looks like its jogging north! 

As it is supposed to. 

[Jesse]

Euro weeklies say winter cancel.

Didn't they say something similar two weeks ago?

[Timmy Supercell]

Didn't they say something similar two weeks ago?

 

Yup I recall that, and then the whole winter fell in 1 day. Good .

[Blizzard777]

Unbelievable, here I am waiting for another snow opportunity! Another night without sleep, another night of looking at the street lamp, another night of staring at my iPad in hope! Do you suppose they have a sad song about us? I'm going to sleep most of spring

[BLI snowman]

My yard pack went all the way down to 12-13". Even some spots down to 10".

 

I'm near 100% sure I'm not getting 2+ foot depths this winter. (Not long ago this was a huge possibility. It easily could have ended up between 24-30")

Bust.

[Perturbed Member]

This is going to be real interesting to see if any other models follow on this.

 

18z NAVGEM is taking the low much further north.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017010918/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017010918/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_8.png

 

 

It slowly just drifts around over here and eventually dissipates

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017010918/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_11.png

[Jesse]

My yard pack went all the way down to 12-13". Even some spots down to 10".

 

I'm near 100% sure I'm not getting 2+ foot depths this winter. (Not long ago this was a huge possibility. It easily could have ended up between 24-30")

That's a pretty bold call at 4,100' in early to mid January with more huge snowfall opportunities on the horizon. Do you really think you won't or do you just hope you won't?

[Deweydog]

Didn't they say something similar two weeks ago?

Consistent!

[Front Ranger]

I can't ever remember a Winter that had so much sustained cold and so many snow chances with so little actual snowfall.

 

1978-79 and 1984-85 are the two closest examples I can think of.

 

1978-79 was quite cold Nov-Feb, but only had 6" for the whole winter at SEA, and just 1.1" in DJF.

 

1984-85 ended up with 8", but only had 2.4" until February, despite being consistently cold in Dec/Jan.

 

Of course, one big dump at some point this winter and everything changes.

[Timmy Supercell]

That's a pretty bold call at 4,100' in early to mid January with more huge snowfall opportunities on the horizon. Do you really think you won't or do you just hope you won't?

 

I'm also considering potential in between rain events, highs above freezing, etc etc. And this also could depend on other 10-12" inch days (these are pretty rare whether you like to buy it or not). Getting 2 or 3 1 foot days all in one January I don't think is within reason.

 

I'm not hoping it won't. It actually would look nice and polished on my signature.

I'm just being a realist, and considering everything that I've seen in the winter over the years.

 

And I'm still actually sticking with the idea of this month turning out to be a significant January for snowfall. We could end up with some of the most snow since Jan 1950 here in K-Falls.

[Goducks09]

This is going to be real interesting to see if any other models follow on this.

 

18z NAVGEM is taking the low much further north.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017010918/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017010918/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_8.png

 

 

It slowly just drifts around over here and eventually dissipates

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017010918/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_11.png

 

 

Wouldn't that bring us a fairly brisk southerly breeze up the valley?

[HighlandExperience]

I can confirm a positive windshield splat test here - one snowflake per 32 rain drops.

Good sign for tonight

[Perturbed Member]

Wouldn't that bring us a fairly brisk southerly breeze up the valley?

 

I don't think so, it actually takes mostly a very similar track to the 12z GEM except it just doesn't really make landfall or head east, it just stalls hangs out and dies. It weakens very rapidly as it heads north along the coast. 

I don't really buy this since it is so different than its own previous runs and all the other models. 

[Front Ranger]

This is going to be real interesting to see if any other models follow on this.

 

18z NAVGEM is taking the low much further north.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017010918/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017010918/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_8.png

 

 

It slowly just drifts around over here and eventually dissipates

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017010918/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_11.png

 

Typical Navy bias - keep the low out at sea.

[The Swamp]

I can confirm that I expect no snow in the swamp. It will be too warm. Should be mostly cold rain.

[Blizzard777]

I can confirm a positive windshield splat test here - one snowflake per 32 rain drops.

What is your current temp? We're down to 36.4...hopeful

[The Swamp]

What is your current temp? We're down to 36.4...hopeful

35.

 

Where are we going to get colder air from. Is the low going to pull in some NE flow? We'll see if it's enough. I expect to be disappointed.

 

Honestly, I'm ready for some warmer weather.

[luminen]

Roads are covered in snow and ice here this morning and school is on time.   

 

North Bend, Alaska.

[Perturbed Member]

00z NAM so far clearly continuing the trend north through HR20.

[Perturbed Member]

The NAM has finally seen the light.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017011000/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_31.png

[BLI snowman]

1978-79 and 1984-85 are the two closest examples I can think of.

 

1978-79 was quite cold Nov-Feb, but only had 6" for the whole winter at SEA, and just 1.1" in DJF.

 

1984-85 ended up with 8", but only had 2.4" until February, despite being consistently cold in Dec/Jan.

 

Of course, one big dump at some point this winter and everything changes.

November 19, 1978 was a big snowstorm from Portland to Seattle, Downtown Seattle had 5-6".

[Perturbed Member]

00z NAM is going to be a very snowy run for SLE-PDX

[Heavy Snow]

The NAM has finally seen the light.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017011000/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_31.png

Just in the nick of time.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Looking at the Euro Weeklies and CPC, it appears our opportunity for snow is dwindling fast.  Very fast.  Torch and rain soon.