January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Day visits are $18-$32, sliding scale.  Lunch is $13 but their meals are quite good.  Reservations are required with a limit of 20 per day - weekends tend to fill up a month in advance.

 

When I was single I used to go to Cougar Hot Springs east of Eugene - sometimes nice, sometimes full of partiers.  With my wife or visiting friends I'm willing to pay more for Breitenbush which is always a peaceful experience.

 

I went to Tokotee last February. Absolutely gorgeous location made even better by the fact it was snowing as darkness descended. The pools had just re opened and were kind of gross, but really really hot. 

 

Went to Cougar two days later. It was my 2nd trip there. It was suprisingly crowded for being pouring rain and 35 degrees. Its not bad, but a lot of people and the water isn't real hot, more like bathwater in the lower pools. 

[luterra]

The GFS has been spitting out some goofy low temps lately.  00Z gives PDX a low of 5F on Friday morning with -2C at 850mb and -1C at 925.  Inversion overestimation?

[Jesse]

I went to Tokotee last February. Absolutely gorgeous location made even better by the fact it was snowing as darkness descended. The pools had just re opened and were kind of gross, but really really hot. 

 

Went to Cougar two days later. It was my 2nd trip there. It was suprisingly crowded for being pouring rain and 35 degrees. Its not bad, but a lot of people and the water isn't real hot, more like bathwater in the lower pools. 

 

Toketee is an amazing location. One of my favorite hot springs in Oregon.

 

Have you seen the falls nearby?!

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS AFD

 

"Looking ahead to the Tue night/Wed time period, the 00Z runs of the

GFS and NAM did not really change the overall thinking much. It still
looks like the easterly gradient picks up rapidly and cools the
interior lowlands enough for precip to fall as snow sometime Tue
evening. Model QPF values suggest a couple of inches of accumulation
possible for the central and southern Willamette Valley, and the
central OR coast. Totals lighter as you go further north, but still
light accumulations possible for the entire CWA. Winter weather
advisories will likely be needed for much of the CWA. Pyle

"

 

The 00z GFS  trended further north and quite a bit snowier for PDX metro, and the 00z NAM actually gives a solid 2-4 inches while the 18z gave nothing so why do they say the overall thinking didn't change much? At least with the NAM, it totally trended towards the other models. Maybe they are trying to be extra conservative now after overdoing it for the past few "events".

[Kayla]

Yeah, a little worried about the precip being quite light and the east winds eating a lot of it. 3-4 inches isn't all that much given that this light precip is going from Tuesday evening well into Wednesday evening. Most models showed me getting 1-2 inches Saturday but I ended up with .3 inches. At least the airmass this time isn't as bone dry.

 

Yeah not having to overcome dew points in the single digits will definitely help a lot. Even now within 24 hours of the event beginning there are still plenty of questions. Looks like it's going to come down to the 12z runs in the morning to hopefully finally align and finalize things.

[Perturbed Member]

The GFS has been spitting out some goofy low temps lately.  00Z gives PDX a low of 5F on Friday morning with -2C at 850mb and -1C at 925.  Inversion overestimation?

 

It assumes some quite significant snow cover. 

[luterra]

I went to Tokotee last February. Absolutely gorgeous location made even better by the fact it was snowing as darkness descended. The pools had just re opened and were kind of gross, but really really hot. 

 

Went to Cougar two days later. It was my 2nd trip there. It was suprisingly crowded for being pouring rain and 35 degrees. Its not bad, but a lot of people and the water isn't real hot, more like bathwater in the lower pools. 

Umpqua/Toketee is probably my favorite hot spring in Oregon, though it is frequently abused.  Best visited via skis or snowshoes in the winter when the road is closed.

[Jbolin]

One of my friends who lives near Evergreen college in Olympia says it's snowing there. I bet they do well tonight!

Sure it's not the weed?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Toketee is an amazing location. One of my favorite hot springs in Oregon.

 

Have you seen the falls nearby?!

 

I have. I saw all the waterfalls below about 3000' in the Umpqua Basin, the higher elevation ones were not accessible due to snow. 

[Jbolin]

Radar trends plus the HRRR suggest the north leaning models might be correct.

[BLI snowman]

 

PDX NWS AFD

 

"Looking ahead to the Tue night/Wed time period, the 00Z runs of the

GFS and NAM did not really change the overall thinking much. It still

looks like the easterly gradient picks up rapidly and cools the

interior lowlands enough for precip to fall as snow sometime Tue

evening. Model QPF values suggest a couple of inches of accumulation

possible for the central and southern Willamette Valley, and the

central OR coast. Totals lighter as you go further north, but still

light accumulations possible for the entire CWA. Winter weather

advisories will likely be needed for much of the CWA. Pyle

 

"

 

The 00z GFS trended further north and quite a bit snowier for PDX metro, and the 00z NAM actually gives a solid 2-4 inches while the 18z gave nothing so why do they say the overall thinking didn't change much? At least with the NAM, it totally trended towards the other models. Maybe they are trying to be extra conservative now after overdoing it for the past few "events".

Silly. And the Southern Valley is on the outside looking in at this point.

[Kayla]

 

PDX NWS AFD

 

"Looking ahead to the Tue night/Wed time period, the 00Z runs of the

GFS and NAM did not really change the overall thinking much. It still

looks like the easterly gradient picks up rapidly and cools the

interior lowlands enough for precip to fall as snow sometime Tue

evening. Model QPF values suggest a couple of inches of accumulation

possible for the central and southern Willamette Valley, and the

central OR coast. Totals lighter as you go further north, but still

light accumulations possible for the entire CWA. Winter weather

advisories will likely be needed for much of the CWA. Pyle

"

 

The 00z GFS  trended further north and quite a bit snowier for PDX metro, and the 00z NAM actually gives a solid 2-4 inches while the 18z gave nothing so why do they say the overall thinking didn't change much? At least with the NAM, it totally trended towards the other models. Maybe they are trying to be extra conservative now after overdoing it for the past few "events".

 

 

Yeah the whole "south" track talk is the part that is the head scratcher to me. I can understand if they do not want to pull the trigger on snow amounts and such yet but it's really not looking anything like a south valley event or even valley. Tonight is going to once again be a pretty big bust for them.

[Heavy Snow]

 

PDX NWS AFD

 

"Looking ahead to the Tue night/Wed time period, the 00Z runs of the

GFS and NAM did not really change the overall thinking much. It still

looks like the easterly gradient picks up rapidly and cools the

interior lowlands enough for precip to fall as snow sometime Tue

evening. Model QPF values suggest a couple of inches of accumulation

possible for the central and southern Willamette Valley, and the

central OR coast. Totals lighter as you go further north, but still

light accumulations possible for the entire CWA. Winter weather

advisories will likely be needed for much of the CWA. Pyle

"

 

The 00z GFS  trended further north and quite a bit snowier for PDX metro, and the 00z NAM actually gives a solid 2-4 inches while the 18z gave nothing so why do they say the overall thinking didn't change much? At least with the NAM, it totally trended towards the other models. Maybe they are trying to be extra conservative now after overdoing it for the past few "events".

 

 

Yeah, after what happened with the past few events, their being cautious at the moment. Maybe they are thinking since it will happen after the Tuesday evening commute, they can afford to wait a little longer.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Radar trends plus the HRRR suggest the north leaning models might be correct.

 

The center of rotation looks pretty far north on the satellite, more than I would expect based on what the models are showing. Could be really good news for the Seattle area, but still just a bit too far south for anything fun to reach South Vancouver Island/Whatcom.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Umpqua/Toketee is probably my favorite hot spring in Oregon, though it is frequently abused.  Best visited via skis or snowshoes in the winter when the road is closed.

 

I went around February 20th last year...Didn't need skis or snow shoes last year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah I wouldn't expect more than an inch south of Albany. From what I recall just north of Albany was the snow/ice cutoff during the 12-14 event, so I guess similar from that perspective. 

[Front Ranger]

The heavier stuff moving north through the Portland area now is what to keep an eye on if you're north of OLM.

[Timmy Supercell]

I can't believe I thought 12/14 was a "good snow" here with a 6.00" accumulation lolz. Soon after this I had quite the wake up call.

 

Now I have real standards for snow. 

 

Big stuff like this actually does interest me (snow may not be my favorite weather but I AM a storm junkie) and initially the Jan 3rd storm made it hard for me to sleep overnight. 5am I finally crashed and felt like crap next afternoon. (but I suppose the lost sleep was worth it.)

[Perturbed Member]

Mark Nelsen, went from 1-4 possible to likely.

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Tons of precip pumping north on the PDX radar but it never really makes headway on the SEA radar.   It just dissolves.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Tons of precip pumping north on the PDX radar and it never really makes headway on the SEA radar. It just dissolves.

Just like the models illustrated... limited precip makes it here.

[Front Ranger]

Tons of precip pumping north on the PDX radar but it never really makes headway on the SEA radar. It just dissolves.

Too early...just watch. It will fill in to the south a lot more over the next couple hours.

[Jesse]

Mark Nelsen, went from 1-4 possible to likely.

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

Those temps! Hopefully he knows something I don't...

[GHweatherChris]

Tons of precip pumping north on the PDX radar but it never really makes headway on the SEA radar. It just dissolves.

Radar is not showing anything hopeful here to even match the models showing anything on the low end here.

 

Another bust, or, a deformation band will form, but not likely.

[Blizzard777]

I was waiting for that first band of moisture to hit and it just went away! Not waiting for the next band, watching end of Saving private Ryan then to bed.

 

32*

[TT-SEA]

Too early...just watch. It will fill in to the south a lot more over the next couple hours.

 

 

I know... just reporting what was happening now.

[TT-SEA]

I was waiting for that first band of moisture to hit and it just went away! Not waiting for the next band, watching end of Saving private Ryan then to bed.

 

32*

 

Says it goes until 1 a.m. on AMC.  

[Bryant]

I know... just reporting what was happening now.

Why not add that in on your original post then? Ah, because that would be uncharacteristic of you. You and your antics

[Perturbed Member]

Mark pretty confident that PDX will get at least an inch and up to 4 inches. 

 

He has a new blog posting, worth a read.

 

Earlier there was some  discussion about how precip over PDX was magically continuing even though the main low was no longer in the picture Wednesday. This is Mark's take on it. There is a ULL to the NW that drifts over NW OR. PDX actually doesn't directly get any precip form the main precip shield of the low.

 

"All evening models are in and they all show something similar.

1. The main precipitation shield from the storm moving through southern Oregon tomorrow doesn’t make it to the metro area.
2. Instead we get a widespread area of light snow that develops tomorrow evening through much of Wednesday over much of NW Oregon, including the metro area and Salem/Albany.  This is generated by moisture lifting up under an upper-level low.  The low sits over us through much of Wednesday

The WRF-GFS, NAM, GFS, & ECMWF all show the same general idea."

[TT-SEA]

Why not add that in on your original post then? Ah, because that would be uncharacteristic of you. You and your antics

 

 

OK Bryant. 

 

I have been talking about the deformation zone being north of the models for 2 days now.    Do I need to put that in every post for you?   Or maybe just make an observation about what is happening now?

 

STFU.

[bainbridgekid]

Looks like things may start getting interesting in the swamp soon.

 

Very borderline temps, but the radar is looking pretty decent for this stage of the night IMO.

[Blizzard777]

Says it goes until 1 a.m. on AMC.  

It's a double feature...repeats

 

Moisture is so close now, will stay up just to see if it falls as snow or cold rain

[TT-SEA]

Looks like things may start getting interesting in the swamp soon.

 

Very borderline temps, but the radar is looking pretty decent for this stage of the night IMO.

 

 

Yeah... that next wave has a little more oomph to it.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Switched back over to snow now...

[GHweatherChris]

Looks like things may start getting interesting in the swamp soon.

 

Very borderline temps, but the radar is looking pretty decent for this stage of the night IMO.

Looking like a model bust pretty much everywhere on the way. Sat and radar do not show much help, so far.

[bainbridgekid]

Yeah... that next wave has a little more oomph to it.  

It says it's rain, bu the 6z NAM is quite a bit further North than the 00z.

 

Definitely looking better for North of Olympia than it was this afternoon.

[BLI snowman]

Switched back over to snow now...

 

35 with moderate rain here. Fun night.

[HighlandExperience]

Looks like things may start getting interesting in the swamp soon.

 

Very borderline temps, but the radar is looking pretty decent for this stage of the night IMO.

I'm surprised how active the radar is right now.

[bainbridgekid]

Looking like a model bust pretty much everywhere on the way. Sat and radar do not show much help, so far.

I'm not sure what you are seeing.

 

Concerned the deformation band will set up to your North?

 

The radar looks more active than I was expecting overall.

[TT-SEA]

Looking like a model bust pretty much everywhere on the way. Sat and radar do not show much help, so far.

 

I would say the IR satellite and the the regional radar (not just SEA) look better than expected overall at this point.    This was supposed to be a morning event over here.