January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Talking to my Dad this evening, he agrees this is easily the hardest winter since 92-93 in the mid-valley. He works over west of Salem in Dallas and they have gotten about 10-12" so far this month after getting about 6" of snow in December. He said their public works director says they have already used all their de-icer for the winter and will not have anymore the rest of the winter...

 

 

Your dad remembers specific years?   My parents talk about big weather events in their past but have no idea what year it actually happened.    

[Timmy Supercell]

You don't want more than 2' depth anyway really. Do you want to be trapped in your home? I was thinking about that the other day. My area had 50-60" snow depths during January 1969, that sounds really cool, but in reality would be a nightmare. There is no way I would be prepared for that. When I had a 26" depth in 2012 I had to park my car at the fire station a mile from my house and walk the rest of the way then walk back the next morning. It wasn't that bad, but it was a novelty, if I had to do it more than a day or two it would have been awful. 

 

Yeah, I'm in kind of a conflict of wanting to do more physical activity and putting a significant winter statistic on my signature. I'm sure any storm fanatic can relate to that.

 

I would be fine with a handful more "few inches here and there" kind of events rest of the winter with in between melting, but if another huge blast like 3rd/4th hits me late January it could very well excite me again. But... perhaps I could resort to indoor exercising so I don't go nuts.

[TT-SEA]

my wife is pissed we got snow, females be cray.

 

So last night in the middle of the storm you drove down to the river to save your boat?    How did you navigate your road?     

[luvssnow_spokane]

This is a pretty weenie-tainted analysis of this winter so far. But to be expected.

 

It is possible to appreciate a good event somewhere within the region even if your area isn't directly hit. We are all essentially in the same climate zone so it should be heartening to see anywhere north or south within the I-5 corridor get smacked good to show it is still possible if nothing else. For instance, I found it interesting and enjoyable to see Medford get hit hard a week ago even when my snow total for the winter was still made up of small, windswept accumulations.

 

I still would always take a winter where everyone around me gets hit and I have relatively little over a regional dud. I like experiencing regionally favorable patterns even if the meso and micro scale details don't always favor MBY. Maybe I am just weird.

Jesse... I was and am excited for everyone down there and expressed that many times... I was relating to why people are not possibly posting. Did you read the link? We got missed a lot and people are possibly burned out ... nothing wennie by this other than you own insecurities coming through. I expressed nothing but joy and enthusiasm for you down there ... but how dare any of us feel anything other than that to help make you feel better ... odd. PLEASE READ THE LINK I POSTED BY SCOTT SISTEK...

[MossMan]

Currently 19F.

[crf450ish]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Your dad remembers specific years?   My parents talk about big weather events in their past but have no idea what year it actually happened.    

 

He does, he has a very good memory, and he has a keen interest in it (Though not an obsession like me.). He is 65 years old, but can talk about specific snow or severe weather events even during his childhood in Kentucky. He doesn't keep detailed weather records, but he always measures and records the snow he gets and I can always expect a text telling me how much snow he got at his house. He has lived on his farm since 1989 and can tell you how much snow he got every year, if you ask, he'll never bring it up. I don't think he talks about the weather to anyone but my brother and I. Even though he did instill the interest in us. 

[crf450ish]

This is a pretty weenie-tainted analysis of this winter so far. But to be expected.

 

It is possible to appreciate a good event somewhere within the region even if your area isn't directly hit. We are all essentially in the same climate zone so it should be heartening to see anywhere north or south within the I-5 corridor get smacked good to show it is still possible if nothing else. For instance, I found it interesting and enjoyable to see Medford get hit hard a week ago even when my snow total for the winter was still made up of small, windswept accumulations.

 

I still would always take a winter where everyone around me gets hit and I have relatively little over a regional dud. I like experiencing regionally favorable patterns even if the meso and micro scale details don't always favor MBY. Maybe I am just weird.

I really truly hope the Puyallup-Seattle area gets pounded with 2 feet of unrelenting heavy snowfall followed by temps that struggle to climb out of the teens for highs for weeks afterwards.

 

^^^EDIT: I mean this winter.

[TT-SEA]

You don't want more than 2' depth anyway really. Do you want to be trapped in your home? I was thinking about that the other day. My area had 50-60" snow depths during January 1969, that sounds really cool, but in reality would be a nightmare. There is no way I would be prepared for that. When I had a 26" depth in 2012 I had to park my car at the fire station a mile from my house and walk the rest of the way then walk back the next morning. It wasn't that bad, but it was a novelty, if I had to do it more than a day or two it would have been awful. 

 

 

We peaked at 40 inches in 2008... guessing this spot of land had 5-6 feet of snow on the ground in years like 1916, 1950, and 1969.     We have a steeply pitched roof so we probably could withstand that now... but it 2008 we learned the hard way that we really needed a ice shield under our shingles in an area where the peaks meet.   We had water pouring into our house around Christmas from an ice dam.    They had to remove all the shingles and install a ice shield that summer.     We have not had any problems since.   

 

I imagine if we had a repeat of 1950... the county would send up the plows they use at Snoqualmie Pass that throw the snow to keep our roads open.   

[Brennan]

WRCC.

 

BLI fared pretty poorly with that event. 5" with the second arctic event that melted fast while Blaine had 16" and full snowcover for awhile. B.C. also got buried.

Did a low track right across central WHATCOM COUNTY or what? That's an insane difference between Blaine and BLI.

[crf450ish]

[Deweydog]

Clearing!!!!1!11

[Timmy Supercell]

He does, he has a very good memory, and he has a keen interest in it (Though not an obsession like me.). He is 65 years old, but can talk about specific snow or severe weather events even during his childhood in Kentucky. He doesn't keep detailed weather records, but he always measures and records the snow he gets and I can always expect a text telling me how much snow he got at his house. He has lived on his farm since 1989 and can tell you how much snow he got every year, if you ask, he'll never bring it up. I don't think he talks about the weather to anyone but my brother and I. Even though he did instill the interest in us. 

 

I'm not totally sure how I remained interested in still measuring snow/documenting winter weather when the season began wearing on me moving to Klamath Falls. As I was finishing my last year of school and moving to another location (the house in downtown early 2012) I was not nearly the same fan of snow I was back in 2008 or especially 2004 when such things were rare.

 

Maybe it's because I like keeping weather data in general and things about me years ago just remained and never died off over time. 

[TT-SEA]

By Sunday there will have been 35 days with solid snow cover here since December 4th.     That is 35 out of 42 days.     And 42 days in a row with at least some snow on the ground.   

 

Pretty impressive even in this favorably snowy location and certainly far better than recent years.     

 

Some serious rain shown on the 00Z ECMWF for the first half of next week... guessing that will end this current streak.   

[MossMan]

By Sunday there will have been 35 days with solid snow cover here since December 4th. That is 35 out of 42 days. And 42 days in a row with at least some snow on the ground.

 

Pretty impressive even in this favorably snowy location and certainly far better than recent years.

 

Some serious rain shown on the 00Z ECMWF for the first half of next week... guessing that will end this current streak.

It will trend south.

[Jesse]

Clearing!!!!1!11

Almost completely clear here now. Moon looks pretty awesome shining on the snow.

[Phil]

Been the overwhelming theme so far and with no strong warm ENSO signal, a midwinter flip to the opposite seems unlikely. At the very least late January contains a good troughing signal.

Yeah, just a temporary, intreasasonal break. A January thaw, if you will.

[MossMan]

Currently 17F

[TT-SEA]

It might be 20 years or more before we have another January like this one.

 

SEA  -9.1

 

OLM  -8.4

 

PDX  -7.1

 

With multiple snow events and a massive snowstorm in NW OR and SW WA.

 

My guess is that the second half of the month is not going to erase the departures of the first half.   

[TT-SEA]

I was reading the Portland NWS write up on the storm... for a single event this was about as impressive as it gets there.

 

Undoubtedly the absolute best part of this situation is the fact that it happened going into another round of cold air.   Being able to enjoy it for days is so very different than only being able to enjoy it during the night it was happening.   

 

You wait years for these events... thankfully nature is giving you ample time to take it all in.   

 

It really does not get much better than this down there.  

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Talk about snowpack taking a beating. So 4 days ago I had 21.00" depth with drifts to nearly 30". Tonight I have an average depth of 9". Spots down to 7", few spots up to 11". No drifts anywhere. lol

I think it's cool that Klamath can score along the way, but I think your frog is mocking us up here in Washington.

[MossMan]

Currently 16F.

[Phil]

This +WPO regime is ideal for poleward WAFz. Will start abusing the PV/strat, making it easier for the next round of anticyclonic wavebreaking to amplify.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2017011206&fh=-48&xpos=0&ypos=521

[Jesse]

It might be 20 years or more before we have another January like this one.

 

SEA -9.1

 

OLM -8.4

 

PDX -7.1

 

With multiple snow events and a massive snowstorm in NW OR and SW WA.

 

My guess is that the second half of the month is not going to erase the departures of the first half.

PDX is -9.7 for the month to date.

 

But overall I agree with your sentiment here. It's been nice to see a regionally cold January for the first time in many years. Perhaps this is even the start of a new stretch.

 

My one hope is that the Puget Sound region can score later in the month so that it is looked back upon fondly as a regionally good month, rather than bitterly for being "wasted cold" by some

[GobBluth]

This +WPO regime is ideal for poleward WAFz. Will start abusing the PV/strat, making it easier for the next round of anticyclonic wavebreaking to amplify.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2017011206&fh=-48&xpos=0&ypos=521

What are your thoughts on timing? It looks like most models are agreeing on at least a week of the Pacific jet getting powerful.

[dairyd]

11 this morning.  finally no wind. ugh. Coldest of the winter.

[Jesse]

Judging by the 5-minute obs PDX will probably end up with a low in the teens this morning.

 

Better than I expected with the slow clearing! Tonight should be really interesting.

[BLI snowman]

Beautiful sunrise this morning, will try to upload some pics later.

 

May be a long while before we get a similar scene.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Vancouver is 13 on the 8 o'clock hour. Pretty D**n impressive. I bet there are some single digits tonight...

[Jesse]

Beautiful sunrise this morning, will try to upload some pics later.

 

May be a long while before we get a similar scene.

 

Yes it was. Absolutely magical.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My brother was messaging this morning from his home in The Dalles complaining about all the snow. He loves snow typically, but he has had enough, it has been on the ground since early December and he is just tired of the headache. He has about 20" on the ground now. 

[Brennan]

Widespread teens across Whatcom County. I have 16 near BLI, Bryant has 11 near South Lake Whatcom. Central county is coming in around 13. Kendal east of Deming is at 6*. This is all without snow cover. Pretty sad. 

[Timmy]

Heading out from pdx a day late. Insurance can take care of the marina...

[Deweydog]

That's hilarious.  The 1992-93 thing continues to unfold.  12z shows a 1-20-93 redux, only a day earlier.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heading out from pdx a day late. Insurance can take care of the marina...

 

Safe travels. 

[epiceast]

My brother was messaging this morning from his home in The Dalles complaining about all the snow. He loves snow typically, but he has had enough, it has been on the ground since early December and he is just tired of the headache. He has about 20" on the ground now. 

How much does Hood River have by the water?

[MossMan]

Widespread teens across Whatcom County. I have 16 near BLI, Bryant has 11 near South Lake Whatcom. Central county is coming in around 13. Kendal east of Deming is at 6*. This is all without snow cover. Pretty sad.

Easy single digits if we had snow on the ground. Currently 15F here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How much does Hood River have by the water?

 

I'm not sure. I think they have more than The Dalles though. He had to go there for work on Monday and said they had gotten a foot over the weekend. I know they got another foot at least with this last storm too...

[Jesse]

I'm not sure. I think they have more than The Dalles though. He had to go there for work on Monday and said they had gotten a foot over the weekend. I know they got another foot at least with this last storm too...

A teacher I used to work with who lives in White Salmon said she has 26-30" on the ground.

[Jesse]

Heading out from pdx a day late. Insurance can take care of the marina...

Have fun. Keep Austin weird!