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February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

stuffradio

By stuffradio
in West of the Rockies

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

The Great Sleet Shower of 2017 is almost over here. Doesn't look to be much behind it. We won't get any meaningful moisture until tomorrow. It is still 37 degrees. There are a few more problems than just dry slotting with this one. 

 

Did I say dry slotting was our only problem?

 

I just meant in terms of seeing some flakes like they are in Hillsboro.

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van city
van city

From Chilliwack.

luvssnow_spokane
luvssnow_spokane

I am up to about 7.5 inches now.      

MossMan
MossMan

Simply stunning images from Whatcom Co, Scott Sistek did a great write up and lots of images! http://static-11.sinclairstoryline.com/resources/media/0c452cba-5623-431c-a829-6dd9a2288076-large16x9_lynd

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

"... will stay with the idea of low snow levels Monday and Tuesday but keep the snow levels off the surface and have the precipitation type be rain."

 

So the snow levels will be low, not surface low but fairly low, but they aren't going to mention snow anyways - just sticking with rain, even though the snow levels will be low.

 

Encouraging.

All I can say is I've never seen a trough like the one on the 18z not deliver lowland snow. Why is the NWS all of the sudden so skittish about mentioning snow. If the 12z and 18z verify there will be lowland snow and probably widespread.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

So why are we getting excited over 1,000ft snow levels? Non event. Moving on and ignoring all those pretty colored maps since they are all wrong.

Are you being serious here?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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HighlandExperience Newbie

HighlandExperience

Posted
Posted

All I can say is I've never seen a trough like the one on the 18z not deliver lowland snow. Why is the NWS all of the sudden so skittish about mentioning snow. If the 12z and 18z verify there will be lowland snow and probably widespread.

 

Not sure I blame them. Think how bad this winter has busted thus far.

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
Posted

All I can say is I've never seen a trough like the one on the 18z not deliver lowland snow. Why is the NWS all of the sudden so skittish about mentioning snow. If the 12z and 18z verify there will be lowland snow and probably widespread.

 

1. They are skittish by nature.

 

2. They've been burnt this winter.

 

3. They make sweet  :wub:  to climo.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

Posted
Posted

18z NAVGEM sends the Sunday low into Astoria

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017020218/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_15.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017020218/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_16.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017020218/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_17.png

 

 

Eventually does deliver snow to you guys up north as the low moves east but you probably want it a bit further south than that. Looks like 1000ft snow levels around PDX.

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HighlandExperience Newbie

HighlandExperience

Posted
Posted

18z NAVGEM sends the Sunday low into Astoria

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017020218/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_15.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017020218/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_16.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017020218/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_17.png

 

 

Eventually does deliver snow to you guys up north as the low moves east but you probably want it a bit further south than that. Looks like 1000ft snow levels around PDX.

The navgem had been pretty consistent in showing this track when the other models yesterday wavered.

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

Posted
Posted

The navgem had been pretty consistent in showing this track when the other models yesterday wavered.

 

Yep, I've honestly found the NAVGEM to be a reasonable model for all our events since December. Limited data but pretty good track record in my experience at showing MSLP and precip. Often more consistent than the GFS, particularly in the days leading up to the December 14th snow event down here where the GFS was all over the place with that low. NAVGEM nailed the track was consistent on it. 

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted

00z NAM brings the low onshore right near the mouth of the Columbia.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017020300/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_50.png

Still not nearly as good as the GFS, GEM, and Euro, but WAY better than the last several NAM runs which took it up toward Vancouver Island.

 

Definitely nice to see.

 

It's cliche, but big 00z runs coming up tonight.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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VancouverIslandSouth Experienced

VancouverIslandSouth

Posted
Posted

Still not nearly as good as the GFS, GEM, and Euro, but WAY better than the last several NAM runs which took it up toward Vancouver Island.

 

Definitely nice to see.

 

It's cliche, but big 00z runs coming up tonight.

 

The NAM was the holdout in terms of cold, way warmer than other model up to this point. It's nice to see it starting to come in line with the others.

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted

Most over the past 24 hours.

 

3km NAM shows Vancouver, BC getting buried.

That's all tomorrow too. 3km only goes out to hour 60 right?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017020300/nam3km_ref_frzn_nwus_26.png

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Down to 29 here. Both Lake Goodwin and Ki are over halfway frozen over again as of this evening. Ground is primed for snow!

 

50 degrees with a south wind and rain on Saturday might take care of that.   :)

 

(that is what the GFS MOS shows)  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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