FroYoBro Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 I believe this is a mistake. There will be no flash freeze. First... the WRF has showed this several times this winter and it has not happened. Much more importantly... the ECMWF shows mid to upper 30s on Monday and then warming up from there. Be careful about trusting the WRF to show the intrusion of cold air accurately. It is almost always too aggressive. I knew you were going to reply of this with a 100% certainty. Your point is probably correct though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 00z NAM definitely significantly further North than the 18z through hour 45 (Sunday afternoon.) Looks to bulls eye Portland to Kelso rather than Eugene to Salem. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 I believe this is a mistake. There will be no flash freeze. First... the WRF has showed this several times this winter and it has not happened. Much more importantly... the ECMWF shows mid to upper 30s on Monday and then warming up from there. Be careful about trusting the WRF to show the intrusion of cold air accurately. It is almost always too aggressive. Yeah flash freeze on February 6th, doubtful. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 I believe this is a mistake. There will be no flash freeze. First... the WRF has showed this several times this winter and it has not happened. Much more importantly... the ECMWF shows mid to upper 30s on Monday and then warming up from there. Be careful about trusting the WRF to show the intrusion of cold air accurately. It is almost always too aggressive. FWIW, I agree. Lots of potential for heavy snow around Seattle, but this doesn't seem like a flash freeze setup. The only way I see Seattle avoid getting into the mid 30's Monday is if they have steady snow most of the day. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The NAM looks fun for the Portland area. HEAVY SNOW. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 00Z NAM ticked a little southward compared to the 12Z run. 12Z run for Sunday evening:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2017020312/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png 00Z run for the same time frame:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2017020400/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 00z NAM is showing what I believe is probably going to be the best possible scenario for PDX. Crazy snowfall rates. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 00z NAM definitely significantly further North than the 18z through hour 45 (Sunday afternoon.) Looks to bulls eye Portland to Kelso rather than Eugene to Salem.So you are saying significant north, Tim is saying south... Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 I am really impressed with the CAA the WRF is showing for Puget Sound Monday morning. Looks like a possible flash freeze event. Could be an awesome day Monday. With cold air entrenched right up to the Canadian border the cold will be able to flood in very quickly when the surface gradient becomes favorable. Certainly the most perfect looking setup yet this winter for the Seattle area to score.Oh, Jim. Please don't do this to yourself again. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 00z NAM is showing what I believe is probably going to be the best possible scenario for PDX. Crazy snowfall rates. The ECMWF has overstated snow totals for most of the area all winter. I am guessing it is doing the same this time... at least up here. The wild card is the deformation zone immediately behind the low... which the NAM shows to be perfectly placed over Portland. Do not discount the NAM. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The NAM shows me getting a foot. Would be crazy if the Portland area could pull off two perfect storms in one winter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 So you are saying significant north, Tim is saying south...It's significantly North of the 18z and a tick South of the 12z. So we're both right. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 00z NAM is showing what I believe is probably going to be the best possible scenario for PDX. Crazy snowfall rates. Yeah, pretty much want to see this run verify 100%. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Somebody's gonna get over a foot of snow out of this thing. I want that somebody to be me. 3 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 It's significantly North of the 18z and a tick South of the 12z. So we're both right.I only compare the good runs... when new data is is available. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The NAM looks fun for the Portland area. HEAVY SNOW.Just a bit. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Somebody's gonna get over a foot of snow out of this thing. I want that somebody to be me.It will be right over me, just like it always used to be! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Oh, Jim. Please don't do this to yourself again. He's correct that right now, it appears to be the best setup for Seattle area snow yet this winter. The ultra-conservative Seattle NWS is going with 1-3" three days out. That tells you something. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Yeah, pretty much want to see this run verify 100%. You already had a historic snowstorm this winter. I'm rooting for OLM to BLI to be the big winners this time. Even things out, make it a truly regional great. If Portland gets some snow too, that's cool. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The ECMWF has overstated snow totals for most of the area all winter. I am guessing it is doing the same this time... at least up here. The wild card is the deformation zone immediately behind the low... which the NAM shows to be perfectly placed over Portland. Do not discount the NAM. On the other hand, we've yet to see models have a real good handle on any of these setups more than 24 hours out. Still have to wait. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 You already had a historic snowstorm this winter. I'm rooting for OLM to BLI to be the big winners this time. Even things out, make it a truly regional great. If Portland gets some snow too, that's cool. Nothing wrong with us getting another one I think all of us down here are pulling for the Puget Sound folks. If we could control it, they'd get 4-6" while we got 12-16". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Nothing wrong with us getting another one I think all of us down here are pulling for the Puget Sound folks. If we could control it, they'd get 4-6" while we got 12-16". That would still result in a huge snowfall disparity for the winter. Reverse that, and everybody ends up with a fine winter. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 On the other hand, we've yet to see models have a real good handle on any of these setups more than 24 hours out. Still have to wait. No... I will not wait! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 That would still result in a huge snowfall disparity for the winter. Reverse that, and everybody ends up with a fine winter. People want snow. That is ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 If the Portland area did see another 10"+ snowfall, that would certainly put this winter in some rare territory. Maybe 1-2 other winters in the past 100 years have produced more than one snowstorm that big in a single winter? 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 He's correct that right now, it appears to be the best setup for Seattle area snow yet this winter. The ultra-conservative Seattle NWS is going with 1-3" three days out. That tells you something. It is a good set-up for Seattle... still thinking a southward trend though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 People want snow. That is ok. Some people have already got a lot of snow. I want those who haven't to get more. That is ok. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 That would still result in a huge snowfall disparity for the winter. Reverse that, and everybody ends up with a fine winter. Like with income, I'm afraid snowfall equality is a purely idealistic notion. Sounds good on paper though! I would say that any significant snow event for Seattle would put this firmly in the "fine" winter category, given the cold temperatures and previous light snowfalls that have occurred there already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Like with income, I'm afraid snowfall equality is a purely idealistic notion. Sounds good on paper though! I would say that any significant snow event for Seattle would put this firmly in the "fine" winter category, given the cold temperatures and previous light snowfalls that have occurred there already. Unlike income equality, we have a zero percent chance to change snowfall equality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Some people have already got a lot of snow. I want those who haven't to get more. That is ok. I thought you voted for Gary Johnson? Right now you're sounding like some ***** Bernie supporter. Let the rich get richer! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Possibly. It's been snowing steadily since about 4 or 5 am. Nothing overly heavy, mostly 1/4 to 1/2" an hour rates.Man, you keep getting the shaft this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Like with income, I'm afraid snowfall equality is a purely idealistic notion. Sounds good on paper though! I would say that any significant snow event for Seattle would put this firmly in the "fine" winter category, given the cold temperatures and previous light snowfalls that have occurred there already. There hasn't been any widespread, moderate/heavy snowfalls in the Puget Sound region yet this winter. A widespread 4-8"+ over the next 5 days would go a long way. Portland south already has a really nice winter assured, and those north of the border are basically in that category as well, though their bar is higher. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 I see the models are still sh*t... next Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 I thought you voted for Gary Johnson? Right now you're sounding like some ***** Bernie supporter. Let the rich get richer! The rich have been getting richer the past 8 years.... Goddammit, this isn't politics! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 If the Portland area did see another 10"+ snowfall, that would certainly put this winter in some rare territory. Maybe 1-2 other winters in the past 100 years have produced more than one snowstorm that big in a single winter? 1968-69 and 1949-50, although the late January events in both years were spread out over several days. And then 1915-16 before that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 FWIW, I agree. Lots of potential for heavy snow around Seattle, but this doesn't seem like a flash freeze setup. The only way I see Seattle avoid getting into the mid 30's Monday is if they have steady snow most of the day. I dunno. We will have a setup with a lot of low level cold just north of us and backwash northerly winds behind a departing low. It might be colder than you think. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The crappy rpm shows no snow for Seattle. Wtf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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