February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

00Z ECMWF also shows quite a bit of light rain and drizzle during the afternoon on Monday with highs in the upper 30s.

You know that you could have just posted that lovely map...and then went to bed instead of posting this post, haha!

[TT-SEA]

This is comically bad for Monday... strong southerly winds for all of the Seattle area and raining.   Anyone thinking about northerly flow and arctic air is going to be sorely disappointed.   There is no northerly flow for us after the snow. 

 

 

 

 

All rain below about 1,000 feet for the Seattle area.

 

[Jesse]

It is not going to shift south. EURO is the dagger to the heart.

I'm pretty pleased to see this. Medford, Eugene, Portland, Chehalis, Vancouver BC and now Olympia to Everett will all get theirs this winter. Basically everywhere on the west side that matters.

[Front Ranger]

You know that you could have just posted that lovely map...and then went to bed instead of posting this post, haha!

No, he couldn't have.

[TT-SEA]

You know that you could have just posted that lovely map...and then went to bed instead of posting this post, haha!

 

You might not see the southerly wind up there... probably much better for you!  

[Heavy Snow]

Enjoy your big snowstorm Seattle! You deserve it after getting shafted all Winter long! 

[seattleweatherguy]

This is comically bad for Monday... strong southerly winds for all of the Seattle area and raining. Anyone thinking about northerly flow and arctic air is going to be sorely disappointed. There is no northerly flow for us after the snow.

 

 

 

 

All rain below about 1,000 feet for the Seattle area.

 

What time does it start snowing sunday and when does it start raining momday?

[TT-SEA]

That is a strong 25-30 mph SW wind on Monday.   Seriously gross.   Sucks for my location as well.   

 

That is going to eat the snow very quickly.

[MossMan]

This is comically bad for Monday... strong southerly winds for all of the Seattle area and raining. Anyone thinking about northerly flow and arctic air is going to be sorely disappointed. There is no northerly flow for us after the snow.

 

 

 

 

All rain below about 1,000 feet for the Seattle area.

 

It's getting late Tim...you are probably yawning with eyes getting small and squinty...I think you should head to bed and rest up since you will be doing a lot of driveway shoveling soon!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view3/1899644/mcnulty-kicks-desk-o.gif

 

I feel ya dogg...Well hope for the best and expect the worst. 

[TT-SEA]

It's getting late Tim...you are probably yawning with eyes getting small and squinty...I think you should head to bed and rest up since you will be doing a lot of driveway shoveling soon!

 

 

I know a bad post-snow day when I see it... and that is about as bad as it gets.   Don't even get one day to enjoy it even up here.  

 

Windswept drizzle on SW winds.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm pretty pleased to see this. Medford, Eugene, Portland, Chehalis, Vancouver BC and now Olympia to Everett will all get theirs this winter. Basically everywhere on the west side that matters.

 

Salem has actually had twice as much snow this winter as EUG, so lets add them too

[MossMan]

You might not see the southerly wind up there... probably much better for you!

Yeah I look to be right on the edge of that wind field...will probably be good up here but yeah those south winds down south is not a good thing at all!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What time does it start snowing sunday and when does it start raining momday?

 

I hope rush hour motorists are prepared for the flash freeze. 

[HighlandExperience]

Even if we do get 4-6 inches of heavy wet snow I'm going to enjoy it. Better than no snow.

[BLI snowman]

That is a strong 25-30 mph SW wind on Monday.   Seriously gross.   Sucks for my location as well.   

 

That is going to eat the snow very quickly.

 

I think people get the point. 

 

Folks who get 8-12" aren't going to be too traumatized by it.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'm pretty pleased to see this. Medford, Eugene, Portland, Chehalis, Vancouver BC and now Olympia to Everett will all get theirs this winter. Basically everywhere on the west side that matters.

Not according to Tim

[Jesse]

Even if we do get 4-6 inches of heavy wet snow I'm going to enjoy it. Better than no snow.

The guy who has seen 50" this winter disagrees!

[HighlandExperience]

The guy who has seen 50" this winter disagrees!

People who have to much don't appreciate small things. Facts of life.

[Arctic Front]

I'm pretty pleased to see this. Medford, Eugene, Portland, Chehalis, Vancouver BC and now Olympia to Everett will all get theirs this winter. Basically everywhere on the west side that matters.

Ouch...

[Jesse]

Not according to Tim

Tim needs to calm down and let people have their fun.

[snow_wizard]

You know that you could have just posted that lovely map...and then went to bed instead of posting this post, haha!

The good news besides the snow is the ECMWF shows it dropping into the low to mid 20s Tuesday night. Also shows it freezing Monday night.

[snow_wizard]

Tim needs to calm down and let people have their fun.

He's making it sound way worse than it is.

[seattleweatherguy]

The weather app gives me 3 to 5 sunday night and 1 to 3 monday realistic?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The good news besides the snow is the ECMWF shows it dropping into the low to mid 20s Tuesday night. Also shows it freezing Monday night.

 

Low 20s with a strong SW wind? IDK who to believe anymore . I'm hoping you get some snow Wiz. Just for you.... Covington scores. For once!

[bainbridgekid]

I know a bad post-snow day when I see it... and that is about as bad as it gets. Don't even get one day to enjoy it even up here.

 

Windswept drizzle on SW winds.

I'll be up all night tomorrow if the Euro comes close to verifying, so I won't care too much.

 

I'm sure we'll all take our 6+ inch storm in exchange for it melting the next day.

[TT-SEA]

Tim needs to calm down and let people have their fun.

 

I am actually annoyed about Monday.   I hate 30mph wind and drizzle following a good snowfall.    So opposite of northerly flow for enjoyment.  

 

But I know it will be fun tomorrow night for many and that is great.  

[Jesse]

Ouch...

Who did I leave out?

[TT-SEA]

I'll be up all night tomorrow if the Euro comes close to verifying, so I won't care too much.

 

I'm sure we'll all take our 6+ inch storm in exchange for it melting the next day.

 

 

Yes... I know you will enjoy every second of it.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'll be up all night tomorrow if the Euro comes close to verifying, so I won't care too much.

 

I'm sure we'll all take our 6+ inch storm in exchange for it melting the next day.

 

Snow generally melts pretty quickly around here. When we get it we don't complain. 

[MossMan]

That is a strong 25-30 mph SW wind on Monday. Seriously gross. Sucks for my location as well.

 

That is going to eat the snow very quickly.

Wouldn't we see a raging pscz where the N winds collide with the S winds?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Who did I leave out?

 

BLI

[Jesse]

I am actually annoyed about Monday. I hate 30mph wind and drizzle following a good snowfall. So opposite of northerly flow for enjoyment.

 

But I know it will be fun tomorrow night for many and that is great.

I understand. It will also likely be the big event of the winter for most Puget Sounders. Might as well see the best in it. Not like anyone can control it.

[TT-SEA]

He's making it sound way worse than it is.

 

I am connoisseur of post snowfall weather conditions.       For me up here its more important than the event itself since it snows frequently.   That is just me.

 

And why I was in absolute awe of the conditions in Portland for the week following their big event.

 

Monday is a bad deal even up here.   That is a roaring SW wind that afternoon and with plenty of precip... genuine sideways drizzle here.  

[Jesse]

BLI

I can't keep track of who has and hasn't seen snow up there. Whatcom county is its own animal.

[snow_wizard]

Low 20s with a strong SW wind? IDK who to believe anymore . I'm hoping you get some snow Wiz. Just for you.... Covington scores. For once!

The wind will obviously be done by then. It probably won't ever get that windy anyway.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

00Z ECMWF through Monday morning at 10 a.m.

 

 

Looks like a pretty clear north trend in the models tonight, even Victoria-Whatcom might get a small amount. Offshore cyclogenis situations like this always seem to trend north closer to the event, most of the time that leads to them slamming into North Vancouver Island; this time there's a nice buffer.

[snow_wizard]

The NWS is completely beyond belief on this. Absolutely boring weather discussion tonight. Makes zero sense to me.

[TT-SEA]

The wind will obviously be done by then. It probably won't ever get that windy anyway.

 

 

It will be very windy Monday afternoon.   

 

Side note... it shows 32 for a low Monday night (south wind persists most of the night) and 40 on Tuesday.  

 

Absolutely no northerly flow after this event for us.  

[TT-SEA]

GFS MOS shows 42 on Monday.

 

I would not be surprised if this event fails to some extent because the models are too aggressive in showing genuinely accumulating snow tomorrow night.    

 

Going to be so close tomorrow night... 32 and dumping snow or 34 and heavy non-sticking snow?    Or 33 and in between.