March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Very little snow in the Seattle area on the 12Z ECMWF through next Tuesday morning as well. Not true for Bellingham though!

 

I'm right on that line of snow goodness! Skagit man and everyone north does quite well.

[HighlandExperience]

I'm right on that line of snow goodness! Skagit man and everyone north does quite well.

Move that heavy snow right over central Sound.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Move that heavy snow right over central Sound.

The Olympics say "no!!!" ...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least the warm air has fully mixed in here today and the snow is disappearing fast.  

 

 

I was surprised last night to still have solid snow cover. Still had about an inch on the ground this morning, but that is probably mostly gone by now. 

[Front Ranger]

Very little snow in the Seattle area on the 12Z ECMWF through next Tuesday morning as well.     Not true for Bellingham though!

 

 

Looks like most our posters are stuck in the 50 shades of gray.

[epiceast]

Does anybody else think that Euro is doing something weird towards the end of the run? It seems to me a ridge dropping southward onto the west coast is a very unusual progression, it almost reminds me of the wacky cut off lows it used to drop down.

[stuffradio]

I still have patches of snow on the ground, but the heavy rain is trying to make sure I'm left with no trace before another sad round of snow comes by. I just want to be in a land of ridging instead of a pool of endless troughs.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF offers some hope for a more variable pattern.   Wild swings later next week.  

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-PnRLlY.png

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls00/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls00-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-_RZssu.png

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-iNc6TC.png

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-1Lx8UL.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

12Z ECMWF offers some hope for a more variable pattern.   Wild swings later next week.  

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-PnRLlY.png

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls00/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls00-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-_RZssu.png

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-iNc6TC.png

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-1Lx8UL.png

 

Thunderstormish...

[epiceast]

12Z ECMWF offers some hope for a more variable pattern.   Wild swings later next week.  

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-PnRLlY.png

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls00/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls00-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-_RZssu.png

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-iNc6TC.png

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-1Lx8UL.png

Do you realy buy that ridge dropping down from Yukon?

[Perturbed Member]

The 3km NAM looks real interesting for PDX.

[Jesse]

Definitely a trend away from anything interesting or impactful on the models. To bad

[Timmy]

Definitely a trend away from anything interesting or impactful on the models. To bad

? Too*

[SilverFallsAndrew]

March 2012 called...They want their 18z run of the RPM back...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

? Too*

 

Jesse is just angry I am going to get dumped on over the next 72 hours. 

 

Jesse, what happened to rooting for others to get snow?!

[Bryant]

Looks like most our posters are stuck in the 50 shades of gray.

It's all about preference... snow, or crazy sex? I'll take both

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's all about preference... snow, or crazy sex? I'll take both

 

At the advice of my doctor I will take snow. 

[Deweydog]

Jesse is just angry I am going to get dumped on over the next 72 hours.

 

Jesse, what happened to rooting for others to get snow?!

Last month he was just worried he'd have to endure Puget Sound weenies scoffing at this winter in the future when he's going to prominently display it proudly in the trophy case.

[Jesse]

Jesse is just angry I am going to get dumped on over the next 72 hours.

 

Jesse, what happened to rooting for others to get snow?!

I only root for people who root for other people to get snow to get snow.

[Jbolin]

A whole lot going on here

[Front Ranger]

I only root for people who root for other people to get snow to get snow.

 

I root for My Location to be Great Again.

[Jesse]

I root for My Location to be Great Again.

Not since 2012. Thanks Obama!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I only root for people who root for other people to get snow to get snow.

 

I am rooting for Bellingham big time this weekend, and Shawnigan Lake. Those poor deprived people. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

...COOL SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH LOW SNOW LEVELS...

Another cool low pressure system will sit offshore this weekend,
maintaining showers and low snow levels. Showers on Saturday will
mix with hail at times, with some spotty brief accumulations of
snow on the higher hills of 1500 feet.

Air mass will cool further Saturday night and Sunday, with snow
levels lowering to 500 to 1000 feet, and possibly down as low as
sea level at times later Sunday night into Monday morning.

Snow totals for Saturday through Monday will vary depending on
elevation. But up to foot of new snow is possibly in the Coast
Range and Willapa Hills, as well as Cascades foothills. But 1 to 2
feet of snow is expected over the Cascades.

Most areas below 500 feet will have little to no snow
accumulation. However, spotty amounts anywhere from a dusting to
up to 1 inch of snow are possible. The best chances for
accumulating snow will above 500 ft. Any accumulations will be
short-lived and should melt within a couple of hours.

Please plan for possible travel delays, and be prepared for the
possibility of light snow on some roadways

[Jesse]

Last montg he was just worried he'd have to endure Puget Sound weenies scoffing at this winter in the future when he's going to prominently display it proudly in the trophy case.

It was actually really nice to see things even out, stats aside. I was seriously worried about Jim for awhile there.

[ShawniganLake]

I am rooting for Bellingham big time this weekend, and Shawnigan Lake. Those poor deprived people.

Thank you. Really appreciate it. Monday/Tuesday look like the best bet for something heavy here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good to see the rain moving back in. I was getting a little worried about this dry start to March.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Crater Lake expecting 3' of new snow over the weekend. 

[MossMan]

Wind and rain currently. 46 degrees.

[MossMan]

Frontal passage just happened, quite a sharp back end. Rain stopped and temp dropping.

[ShawniganLake]

Good to see the rain moving back in. I was getting a little worried about this dry start to March.

It was a wet fall up here but DJF has only seen 78% of average precipitation at Shawnigan lake.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It was a wet fall up here but DJF has only seen 78% of average precipitation at Shawnigan lake.

 

This was a joke after our super wet February. December and January were about 80% of normal here, but February was a washout.

 

2016-17 Water Year: 61.15"

Average:                   48.01

% of Normal              127%

 

DFJ                          31.99

% of Normal               97%

[ShawniganLake]

This was a joke after our super wet February. December and January were about 80% of normal here, but February was a washout.

 

2016-17 Water Year: 61.15"

Average: 48.01

% of Normal 127%

 

DFJ 31.99

% of Normal 97%

I knew it was a joke, but I was curious. October and November were super wet here. It probably more than evened out.

[ShawniganLake]

Starting to get chilly here. Down to 37F with steady light rain.

[MossMan]

Heavy something going on outside, can hear it nailing the roof and side of the house...as I soak in my hot bath.

[FroYoBro]

Heavy something going on outside, can hear it nailing the roof and side of the house...as I soak in my hot bath.

 

I think that it might be rain. 

[Deweydog]

Heavy something going on outside, can hear it nailing the roof and side of the house...as I soak in my hot bath.

Heavy cream perhaps?

[Jesse]

Heavy something going on outside, can hear it nailing the roof and side of the house...as I soak in my hot bath.

 

Hopefully you have your laptop safely in a waterproof ziplock bag!

[MossMan]

Heavy cream perhaps?

Indeed!

[MossMan]

I think that it might be rain.

You could be onto something there!