PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[FroYoBro]

It cleared out nicely last night. Down to 31 degrees here. It should be a nice crisp week even if arctic air doesn’t work out next week. 

[TacomaWx]

Some pretty crazy model runs last night. I’d expect things to be refined a bit over the next couple days. Still a lot of time on the clock. We should have a pretty good idea about this weekend/next week in 48 hours roughly. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cloudy and 31

[Gradient Keeper]

Big runs today! We need to see the ridge trend stronger and to merge sooner to help pull it a bit further to the west. That may be a tall task though.

12z GFS in 47 minutes

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Weather apps are useless.  Seriously. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

How is the timing looking on the arrival of the cold?

Phone app yesterday morning had the valley getting colder Friday night/Saturday.  Phone app in the afternoon yesterday then pushed it to Sunday.  Now this morning it doesn't have it getting cold until maybe Monday/Tuesday.

Delayed but not denied?

Depends on what you mean by cold.    Per the EPS... 850mb temps fall to around -9C by Sunday afternoon but it still shows mid 30s that day so assuming that means a south wind component until late in the day.    Sunday is the transition day.  

[snow maniac]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Frozen lakes will be on the menu if this happens.

Mason Lake in the 20 years living here has never had ice on it, just maybe a little right along the shoreline.

would be cool to it freeze for once.

[jakerepp]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Weather apps are useless.  Seriously. 

My co-worker just said the Apple weather app says a low of 5 for next Thursday in Kent. And of course he phrased it as 'supposed to be a low of 5', which I can't even begin to describe how much I hate when people say 'supposed' about weather.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS was slightly farther north at 144 hours compared to its 00Z run but basically the same... and the control was quite a bit father north at that time and closer to the EPS.   

So basically not so good. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

My co-worker just said the Apple weather app says a low of 5 for next Thursday in Kent. And of course he phrased it as 'supposed to be a low of 5', which I can't even begin to describe how much I hate when people say 'supposed' about weather.

Or when people take the % chance of rain way too literally for like 5 days out.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So basically not so good. 

There really wasn't any meaningful change on the 06Z EPS... pretty much the same as the 00Z run.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Some pretty crazy model runs last night. I’d expect things to be refined a bit over the next couple days. Still a lot of time on the clock. We should have a pretty good idea about this weekend/next week in 48 hours roughly. 

Yeah... the model volatility should rapidly decline over the next couple days.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

My co-worker just said the Apple weather app says a low of 5 for next Thursday in Kent. And of course he phrased it as 'supposed to be a low of 5', which I can't even begin to describe how much I hate when people say 'supposed' about weather.

They can be accurate, and during benign weather they are OK, but during major weather events, useless.  I remember the Microsoft weather app had Leavenworth once getting rain and Seattle getting snow when of course it was the other way around.  Turns out the app was based out of Norway or some other really far away place. 

And of course there is nobody working for the app who is actually making these forecasts.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Big icon run. 

[TT-SEA]

55 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It must be disappointing if no one has posted it.

06Z GFS only showed a foot of snow in Seattle which is pretty disappointing compared to the almost 4 feet that the 00Z run showed.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point it would be nice if the operational runs had ensemble support. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The 06z Icon was noticeably east on its  run.  Hopefully for you guys not a trend.

[TT-SEA]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Rest in power Mike Leech

We lost the Pirate.   Very sad.   I just watched his last press conference from a couple weeks ago.   His press conferences were legendary.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

The 06z Icon was noticeably east on its  run.  Hopefully for you guys not a trend.

Sometimes getting arctic air here seems like an impossible needle to thread. Feels like we are better off just rooting for inversions. 

[Blizzard777]

7 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

Lots of material for a new hitler video on this when the rug gets pulled.

I’m terrible with past dates and events but I do remember maps showing similar a few years ago with the extreme cold temps and the hammer dropping. I was convinced it would play out but it watered down by the actual event time and the hammer stayed in the tool box  .  Then again I have watched it play out as well….fun times ahead and so glad the models are entertaining us with hope! 
 

Currently 35* and had a low of 33 at 12am 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Icon a little further west at 84 hrs

[Blizzard777]

6 hours ago, Nov1985 said:

That's for everyone who takes this too seriously and says "I'm not onboard". If you're in a forum, you don't need to be serious about the weather. If you're driving a truck, maybe. 

Love the timer!  Holding the arctic front accountable and to be on time

[Gradient Keeper]

Alright just did 5 miles on the recumbent bike. Ready for 12z runs! Let's do this! Ya gotta believe! C'MON!!!!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

Classic double hot dog block at day 10. These were much more common in the 20s-30s

Hopefully it licks the flagpole and gets stuck.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sometimes getting arctic air here seems like an impossible needle to thread. Feels like we are better off just rooting for inversions. 

The Eugene contingent assures me that sort of cold does not count.

[Blizzard777]

40 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

How is the timing looking on the arrival of the cold?

Phone app yesterday morning had the valley getting colder Friday night/Saturday.  Phone app in the afternoon yesterday then pushed it to Sunday.  Now this morning it doesn't have it getting cold until maybe Monday/Tuesday.

Delayed but not denied?

Possible we chase the modeled cold into February skipping January because it sucks.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Really need that tilt on the block to improve. It's not in our favor currently.

[RentonHill]

My non expert theory is that the GFS sniffed out the energy coming in on Sunday Monday as the block pivots, letting just enough energy sliding across to offer some decent snowstorm potential for the right areas where it meets the stalled front. Euro maybe too aggressive with the initial digging and is slowly coming around to the Sunday stall, pause as lows spin up offshore. As that happens the arctic airmass continues to build and eventually if we thread the needle those lows come through in the right place or the replacement block re establishes to push it rest of the way. 

[Gradient Keeper]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sometimes getting arctic air here seems like an impossible needle to thread. Feels like we are better off just rooting for inversions. 

Yep. "Fake" cold can sufficiently deepen the cold layer over PDX/northern valley to support snow and has many times in the past.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ICON Day 4 (2-run trend) A bit further west

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yep. "Fake" cold can sufficiently deepen the cold layer over PDX/northern valley to support snow and has many times in the past.

Right now we are in a tough spot

[Blizzard777]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Alright just did 5 miles on the recumbent bike. Ready for 12z runs! Let's do this! Ya gotta believe! C'MON!!!!

Nice job! My elliptical is in the garage where fake cold happens.  I will be visiting in a bit but I do put Hawaii walking videos on to entertain  🏝 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

Nice job! My elliptical is in the garage where fake cold happens.  I will be visiting in a bit but I do put Hawaii walking videos on to entertain  🏝 

If my knee allows I'll do 8-18 miles a day. Feels great when I can mixed in with 2.2 to 3 mile walks.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS appears to be running on time....

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ICON does not dig the arctic air south. Ugh.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

12z ICON does not dig the arctic air south. Ugh.

That run is a mess... the second lobe is digging out in the GOA and stopping the southward progression.    That was not an issue on the 00Z run.    But the ICON is pretty much worthless after day 4.    It swings wildly.  

[Gradient Keeper]

6z EPS Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 1.5 (4-run trend) A few changes. Ridge trending stronger, merging sooner with Aleutian ridge, and energy a notch further west.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

52 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

My co-worker just said the Apple weather app says a low of 5 for next Thursday in Kent. And of course he phrased it as 'supposed to be a low of 5', which I can't even begin to describe how much I hate when people say 'supposed' about weather.

That annoys me too.  My wife's dad is the worst.  He knows nothing about the weather-- but comes over to the house and tries to school me with his phone.  It's kinda like someone telling an astronaut how to walk on the moon.   I usually have to change the subject while my wife is snickering.  She knows it gets under my skin.