PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Dave]

My pipes froze in 2013 before I even went to bed. I was planning on dripping the faucets but by 11 pm they were toast. I made plenty of yellow snow cones for the next 12 hours. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

AHHHHHHHHHHHHH The low next Friday is -13 for me.... lol wut? 

I didn’t know God’s country could get that cold

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

9 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Don't worry about the snow maps this far out but

I'm not. Just messing around and pointing it out.

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, fubario said:

You scroll w/ your thumb?

A lot of gamers, believe it or not actually prefer thumb scrolling mouse!

[Dave]

2 minutes ago, fubario said:

You scroll w/ your thumb?

On my phone, yes. What appendage do you use?

[joelgombiner]

8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I do wonder what is the GFS Op and ECMWF Op seeing Day 6.5+ with that secondary ridge development that shoves the PV lobe over us.

Any theories? 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z CMCE Day 7.5 (4-run trend) Much better today

[fubario]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

On my phone, yes. What appendage do you use?

my nose

[MossMan]

Fake cold must be here. Only 35 currently. 

[Nov1985]

3 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

Love the timer!  Holding the arctic front accountable and to be on time

Small timer updates based on latest guidance.  Snow Sunday, modified arctic on Wednesday thanks to the low.

Best version of the script yet IMO with the cold upper-level-low back in the cast of characters. Act 2 plots better now.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Fake cold must be here. Only 35 currently. 

Not really fake cold... 925mb temps are pretty chilly today.

 

[High Desert Mat?]

I’ll bet that rip run is a huge outlier. Like Josh in high school. 

[Gradient Keeper]

34.5 and fog/low clouds here

[Snownerd3000]

8 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I'm not. Just messing around and pointing it out.

Your pic looks appropriate if these modeled temps are even remotely true.

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I’ll bet that rip run is a huge outlier. Like Josh in high school. 

The spaghetti chart will be the judge of that!

[ShawniganLake]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

850mb temp of -20 in Seattle on Wednesday evening.    Incredible.

Crazy.  Wasn’t expecting that. Would gladly trade the big snow gfs and gem runs for an old school arctic blast for everyone 

[Snownerd3000]

Jim is going to a brick when he sees the EURO. Maybe a gold nugget.

[Kolk1604]

Ryan's on board with the polar vortex onslaught! 

 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not really fake cold... 925mb temps are pretty chilly today.

 

On second thought... maybe that is showing the low level cold because the 925mb temps are higher over the mountains.

[SouthHillFrosty]

For every action, there is a reverse and opposite action. East coast thinks they are good 
 

 

[FrozenBites]

If this were to verify, with all the cold off the coast, that would spin up lows all over the place. Models can't predict that accurately. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Jim is going to a brick when he sees the EURO. Maybe a gold nugget.

It’s funny that’s pretty much how I imagine Jim looking in my head except with more white in the beard.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Ryan's on board with the polar vortex onslaught! 

 

Does he not know what an outlier is? lol....

[Slushy Inch]

Cliffs latest post... Is he still a meteorologist?

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s funny that’s pretty much how I imagine Jim looking in my head except with more white in the beard.

Me too! LOL

[TT-SEA]

Just a confounding difference between the ECMWF and EPS already by day 7.  

[joelgombiner]

Snow cover a month ago and today. Notice how the Columbia and Snake River basins have now filled in with the recent storm. Wonder what it looks like a week from today? 

[Nov1985]

1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I’ll bet that rip run is a huge outlier. Like Josh in high school. 

Last night's ECMWF operational and control runs were certainly extreme outliers compared to the rather boring ensemble Mean. We'll probably get something in between as usual. If we do get those lows dropping south that will really help midweek cold and snow even in those uninhabited territories south of PDX.  

[Winterdog]

36 after a low of 31.  I'm onboard for it getting cooler late this weekend.  Imagine all the weenies scattered over the entire western U.S. that are going through similar frustrations right along with us.  Particularly those on the margins.

[Doinko]

33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

850mb temp of -20 in Seattle on Wednesday evening.    Incredible.

Is this the coldest 850s get over Portland?

This is a crazy run. I also really like the South Valley snowstorm it shows on Tuesday.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

EPS is quite a bit warmer than the 00z run so far

[TT-SEA]

Control run looks great... just as cold as the operational by next Wednesday.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just a confounding difference between the ECMWF and EPS already by day 7.  

idk the pattern looks the same to me. Maybe the EPS is missing something... 

[TT-SEA]

I can't remember the ECMWF and control run being in such lock step on every run and the EPS completely disagreeing.    Very confusing.   Might speak to the volatility of the pattern but its really hard to discount the ECMWF and control when they are in perfect agreement in the 7-10 day period.

[Snownerd3000]

Looks like the OP is quite a bit warmer than the mean so far.  Also, does anyone know how degraded the resolution is on EPS compared to OP? 

 

Edit, just realized this was for the 6z

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Looks like the OP is quite a bit warmer than the mean so far.  Also, does anyone know how degraded the resolution is on EPS compared to OP? 

Just warmer in short term. Is odd though.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

idk the pattern looks the same to me. Maybe the EPS is missing something... 

The pattern actually looks different as well by the middle of the next week. 

[GobBluth]

22 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

AHHHHHHHHHHHHH The low next Friday is -13 for me.... lol wut? 

The glorious sound of insects dying in the soil...

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Looks like the OP is quite a bit warmer than the mean so far.  Also, does anyone know how degraded the resolution is on EPS compared to OP? 

The high-res model is 9 km resolution and each of the ensemble members are 18 km resolution according to: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support

[Terreboner]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was worried about pipes bursting last December because we were going to be out of town.    Similar concern for next week but at least we will be home.     

What kind of HVAC do you have?  I can give you some tips on preventing it.