PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[fubario]

from the actual professionals at the sea nws this morning..

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...One last dry and cool day is
forecast on Friday as the offshore ridge axis arcs well north and
into AK. The forecast then turns cool and wet with a threat of
lowland snow over the weekend. By then a front tracks down the
eastern periphery of the ridge (through B.C.) and into western WA
Saturday or Saturday night. Snow levels will be low, especially
near the Canadian border, with possible Fraser River outflow
winds. Snow levels will be near the surface on Sunday as the
trailing deep/cold upper low drops in - with additional lowland
snow threats for much of the region. There`s little overall
progression of the the front and upper low on Monday and the Pac
NW and western WA will remain in a cool and wet pattern with more
lowland snow possible. 33

&&

[Phishy Wx]

drier but colder

 

could be worse

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

 

 

 

The conflicting reports are all coming from the same person!

 

[TT-SEA]

Being delayed by a day on this run did absolutely nothing to water down the insane cold that comes next week.   

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow... and this is going into record setting cold.   

I just got in the light grey!!! 

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol you dudes are an emotional rollercoaster

 

euro doubling down

Welcome to winter here at TWF! 

[TT-SEA]

That was truly an incredible run.   I need to get back to work now.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Being delayed by a day on this run did absolutely nothing to water down the insane cold that comes next week.   

The snow totals will be impossible to predict even 24 hrs out. 

[yellowstone]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is the coldest Euro run for western Washington We've ever seen.

Can’t wait till the 18z GFS acts like a blindfolded monkey trying to type Shakespeare, still lands on cold and snow and everyone around here panics again 

[Snownerd3000]

Are we sure the EURO and GFS didn't get switched? WTAF!?

Not complaining but holy sh!t the trends are amazing

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, fubario said:

from the actual professionals at the sea nws this morning..

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...One last dry and cool day is
forecast on Friday as the offshore ridge axis arcs well north and
into AK. The forecast then turns cool and wet with a threat of
lowland snow over the weekend. By then a front tracks down the
eastern periphery of the ridge (through B.C.) and into western WA
Saturday or Saturday night. Snow levels will be low, especially
near the Canadian border, with possible Fraser River outflow
winds. Snow levels will be near the surface on Sunday as the
trailing deep/cold upper low drops in - with additional lowland
snow threats for much of the region. There`s little overall
progression of the the front and upper low on Monday and the Pac
NW and western WA will remain in a cool and wet pattern with more
lowland snow possible. 33

&&

They are on board. Hoping we get a wonky Kovacik discussion this week! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is the coldest Euro run for western Washington We've ever seen.

I remember a pretty cold one last December too. A few folks here started worrying about their pipes based on some ten day temp maps.

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Being delayed by a day on this run did absolutely nothing to water down the insane cold that comes next week.   

That might be a good thing... set up for a majestic Christmas!

[joelgombiner]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I remember a pretty cold one last December too. A few folks here started worrying about their pipes based on some ten day temp maps.

My neighbors' pipes froze last December... 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow... and this is going into record setting cold.   

Portland snow doughnut

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The snow totals will be impossible to predict even 24 hrs out. 

Or maybe even 4 hours out. The first snow that fell IMBY this season was totally unforecast. No models showed moisture getting anywhere near this far north that evening.

[Kolk1604]

So when do we warn people? Our best model has been very consistent with extreme cold next week. 

I don't even know what to say... this is just stupid 

[Snownerd3000]

Check out how deep this goes.  20s down into the Baja

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Interesting that it is colder for the West side compared to 00Z, but actually not as cold for the Eastern WA than the 00Z, though still extremely cold.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

My neighbors' pipes froze last December... 

He must live at least couple hundred miles north of here then.

Edited December 13, 2022 by Cascadia_Wx

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I remember a pretty cold one last December too. A few folks here started worrying about their pipes based on some ten day temp maps.

I was worried about pipes bursting last December because we were going to be out of town.    Similar concern for next week but at least we will be home.     

[Cloud]

Just an absurd amount of cold being shown. Jaw dropping run. 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Portland snow doughnut

Don't worry about the snow maps this far out but

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I remember a pretty cold one last December too. A few folks here started worrying about their pipes based on some ten day temp maps.

Our neighbor's pipe broke and they didn't took care of it, the whole drive way ended up being a skating rink. We had to call the city to come shut down their water. lol

[Terreboner]

C'mon guys, no snow maps!!!  We know that is like High Desert Mat throwing at my dartboard on Sunday.

[Mid Valley Duck]

10 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

GFS needs to cave to EMCWF soon, come on Druncle! 

GFS and Euro arent that far off. The big difference is the incoming ridge around day 6. The GFS has it weaker so its more of a glancing blow day 7+ but the Euro has it stronger and pushes the arctic air across the border to the south.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was worried about pipes bursting last December because we were going to be out of town.    Similar concern for next week but at least we will be home.     

Last December was a tad colder than what the Euro just modelled up this way and the contents of my pipes remained liquid through it all.

[joelgombiner]

As long as at least one tap is dripping, your pipes shouldn't freeze. Your home might have un-insulated or poorly insulated sections of pipe that you aren't aware of. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

My neighbors pipes froze too.

[Gradient Keeper]

I do wonder what is the GFS Op and ECMWF Op seeing Day 6.5+ with that secondary ridge development that shoves the PV lobe over us.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I remember a pretty cold one last December too. A few folks here started worrying about their pipes based on some ten day temp maps.

Even for Portland i can't ever remember the euro spitting out numbers like this? Maybe gfs, but this is insane.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Our neighbor's pipe broke and they didn't took care of it, the whole drive way ended up being a skating rink. We had to call the city to come shut down their water. lol

I had to do that on Bainbridge one winter. Walked by a house that was sending water down the driveway and into the street one frosty day.

[Kolk1604]

AHHHHHHHHHHHHH The low next Friday is -13 for me.... lol wut? 

[Guest administrator]

12 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

I just see goatse.

[Dave]

I need a new thumb. Carpal tunnel from too much scrolling. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Even for Portland i can't ever remember the euro spitting out numbers like this? Maybe gfs, but this is insane.

It definitely showed similar penetration of the cold, at least for Oregon, I can’t speak to the Baja stuff on this run. That was the 12z run on 12/21/21 if my memory serves me. 

[yellowstone]

I’d like to see the EPS members get more consistent in showing snow through the period. Also agree the smaller differential between temps west and east of the cascades on this run is odd, but other than those two things, feeling pretty good about this. Wondering if the pullback here is just the delay that will bounce back. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, joelgombiner said:

As long as at least one tap is dripping, your pipes shouldn't freeze. Your home might have un-insulated or poorly insulated sections of pipe that you aren't aware of. 

Doesn't hurt either to leave the doors under your sinks or vanities open to allow for some heat to the pipes.  But moving water is so much harder to freeze, so leaving a tap dripping is really important.   And it should be the one furthest away from the hot water tank.

[AlTahoe]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Being delayed by a day on this run did absolutely nothing to water down the insane cold that comes next week.   

For real. It encompasses the entire west. Jan 1937 ish? 

[fubario]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

I need a new thumb. Carpal tunnel from too much scrolling. 

You scroll w/ your thumb?