Dave Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, MWG said: Let's be real the biggest losers for snow are the towns in Southern Oregon lol but that makes it even more fun of what to expect every winter around here. I've always been surprised at how little snow Medford and Ashland get given their decent elevation. I'm guessing that the beefy coastal/Siskiyou mountains to the west are a factor and of course being farther south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Might be a good night to put down the phone and watch Ernest Saves Christmas. 7 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 The 00Z ICON could not be more opposite of the ECMWF for the middle of next week. Just ridiculous. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mid Valley Duck Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Icon goes full Canadian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Losing the ICON this early is the equivalent of Hillary losing Florida right off the bat in 2016. 2 2 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 I think it's possible we won't know for sure for another 2 days or so as delicate as this situation is. Even the runs that fail look very promising earlier in the run. The stuff after the block is fully set up is totally theoretical at this point. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Out to hour (nice) on Pivotal. Blauck is looking bedder. 3 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Losing the ICON this early is the equivalent of Hillary losing Florida right off the bat in 2016. That model has been all over the place the last few days. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Dave said: I've always been surprised at how little snow Medford and Ashland get given their decent elevation. I'm guessing that the beefy coastal/Siskiyou mountains to the west are a factor and of course being farther south. The high terrain around just makes it more difficult. Feels like it has to be very specific scenarios for snow to fall heck even just rain. Rain shadow for the win! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Out to hour (nice) on Pivotal. Blauck is looking bedder. Are you talking GFS? 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chris said: I got over a foot with that one last April. It was one of my all time favorites despite wiping out all my apples, cherries, pears, plums and peaches for the year. That was by far the costliest snowstorm we’ve experienced. Ended up replacing a lot of landscape and we only got about 4.5 inches. 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 model riding the ICON really says more about the GFS than it does the ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Might be a good night to put down the phone and watch Ernest Saves Christmas. Or the best Christmas movie besides National Lampoon. Die Hard! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: That model has been all over the place the last few days. They all have. If the Euro shows complete pullback tonight then I will definitely believe. That being said, and knowing this place as well as I do, we could all be waking up to amazing model agreement across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Out to hour (nice) on Pivotal. Blauck is looking bedder. The Bloch is healthy as an ox. It’s so healthy it won’t stop sprinting northbound. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, Deweydog said: That was by far the costliest snowstorm we’ve experienced. Ended up replacing a lot of landscape and we only got about 4.5 inches. We had around 2" of very slushy snow here. Didn't really stick to roads much and all melted by the end of the day but it was a really amazing event for so late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I think it's possible we won't know for sure for another 2 days or so as delicate as this situation is. Even the runs that fail look very promising earlier in the run. The stuff after the block is fully set up is totally theoretical at this point. I would say losing the EURO would be like a certain ORANGE person losing Georgia and Arizona. No coming back from that. 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 I've had Fletch saved on the DVR for a couple of years. Perhaps it's time to check out Dr Rosenrosen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 How about a sports analogy. The good news is after the 12z EURO we are ahead 28-3. Bad news is Matt Ryan is our QB! 2 4 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: Are you talking GFS? I actually slipped a $20 to Penelope Endersby for an exclusive sneak peak at the 00z Euro. Watching it roll out in person at at a specially sanctioned showing at the West End Theatre, snuggling with my giant stuffed downvote. 1 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, Dave said: I've always been surprised at how little snow Medford and Ashland get given their decent elevation. I'm guessing that the beefy coastal/Siskiyou mountains to the west are a factor and of course being farther south. Part of it is they are much drier. Medford averages 18.4"/year, Ashland 19.5 (rainfall, not snowfall). Roughly half of what SEA and PDX get. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Terreboner said: They all have. If the Euro shows complete pullback tonight then I will definitely believe. That being said, and knowing this place as well as I do, we could all be waking up to amazing model agreement across the board. I have a feeling we will wake up to some form of model agreement, but..... things have to start amazing and that isn't happening so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 The block is a tad beefier on this GFS run. That's a big deal. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: The block is a tad beefier on this GFS run. That's a big deal. I see some minor improvements... But I thought that early on with the 18z, so don't trust me. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: How about a sports analogy. The good news is after the 12z EURO we are ahead 28-3. Bad news is Matt Ryan is our QB! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Part of it is they are much drier. Medford averages 18.4"/year, Ashland 19.5 (rainfall, not snowfall). Roughly half of what SEA and PDX get. Roughly Eugene too if you look at the latest 30 year running average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 So far so good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: The block is a tad beefier on this GFS run. That's a big deal. Knew I had a purpose here.. Take that, Mom! Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Pretty big improvement so far... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 23 minutes ago, MWG said: Let's be real the biggest losers for snow are the towns in Southern Oregon lol but that makes it even more fun of what to expect every winter around here. When was the last time you had measurable snow? Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 At hour 96 the improvements are more noticeable. Not sure they are enough. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Pretty big shift for less than 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 This run is better. Block is stronger, further south. Looks like it might dig better. 4 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Cold air looks further along 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Winter cancel 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: I actually slipped a $20 to Penelope Endersby for an exclusive sneak peak at the 00z Euro. Watching it roll out in person at at a specially sanctioned showing at the West End Theatre, snuggling with my giant stuffed downvote. I really hope the Euro sticks to what it's showing but it's such a weird outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Oh shiit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Maybe....just maybe. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 If it weren't for that lewd vorticity orgy south of the Aleutians, that block might have actually sent us the business end of that TPV towards the last legs of its life. All in all it's a slight move towards the Euro, annotated by some hockey-playing dillwads. 1 4 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I see some minor improvements... But I thought that early on with the 18z, so don't trust me. It's certainly better. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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