PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Meatyorologist]

The GEM is notorious for spawning Arctic bowling balls. I love those little suckers but they're hard to get in practice.

[Slushy Inch]

I think Euro holds or gets better and 6z GFS is a big improvement.

[snow_wizard]

GEM is trying to shove it south at day 6.

[Perturbed Member]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Gonna get stopped by customs for having 100 grams of cocaine (disguised as snow) hidden under the floorboards. Will try valiantly to escape, only to be mauled by 6 angry German Shepherds and ultimately emasculated by a taser. 

Slightly different topic than cocaine. 

Since you are in SW WA. What do you think of the climate of Camas/Washougal up around 1k ft in the hills to the NE? Any thoughts on the typical snow per season? 

Seems like it would be a nice spot. Any obvious downsides from a climate perspective? Annoyingly high amounts of precip? Damaging east winds?

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

GEM is trying to shove it south at day 6.

Gets very wet and snowy north of Portland but then warms up fast

[snow_wizard]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I think Euro holds or gets better and 6z GFS is a big improvement.

Usually I would have a sinking feeling at this point, and I just don't this time.  Maybe it's because we still have so much time or that we've already scored, but I don't feel impending doom.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Meanwhile the GEM is better tonight.  Not perfect, but better.  This is still too close to call.

I think this GEM run indicates that models will cave to EURO.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Usually I would have a sinking feeling at this point, and I just don't this time.  Maybe it's because we still have so much time or that we've already scored, but I don't feel impending doom.

Because we are holding on hope to the Euro not the GFS probably.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Gets very wet and snowy north of Portland but then warms up fast

It's a big step in the right direction.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS could not be farther apart late next week.    The complete opposite pattern.

[Phishy Wx]

curious why people are so hell bent on thinking GFS is somehow the correct one even though it's been the least consistent?  is it just overall westside pessimism?  shellshock from getting burned in the past. what is it? 

I guess we'll know soon enough with the euro.  such a weird setup indeed

 

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Canadian definitely sorta gets there, after some mucky Pacific backwash. At least it's trying unlike the bloody Yanks.

Or Hitler's ICON. 

Hopefully the Euro somehow ends up schooling them both and we can safely relegate both GFS and ICON to the trash bin.

[Gummy]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Because we are holding on hope to the Euro not the GFS probably.

I would feel much better about all of this is the EPS was closer to the control/op

[Slushy Inch]

Run to run comparison just to see how much of shift GEM run is towards EURO.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

curious why people are so hell bent on thinking GFS is somehow the correct one even though it's been the least consistent?  is it just overall westside pessimism?  shellshock from getting burned in the past. what is it? 

I guess we'll know soon enough with the euro.  such a weird setup indeed

 

It’s the flagship model in the US. It use to be a lot more right…. It’s still the #2 model behind the Euro…….ish

[GHweatherChris]

I prefer no legit arctic blast, I just want to have multiple snow possibilities, I don't need the snow to stick around for days on end.  To me it is the most fun when it is actually snowing, not the boring days of dying snow afterwards.

P.S.---This is my opinion only, which I am allowed to have as a human being.

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I think Euro holds or gets better and 6z GFS is a big improvement.

Some sick, twisted, vile part of me agrees.

[Front Ranger]

11 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Gem made some improvements but still wants to move that trough west instead of continuing to dig

The ridge ballooning up north so fast has been a red flag for a couple days now...in all models, even the ones that eventually deliver.

Gotta have a legit forcing mechanism to push that Arctic air south.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Run to run comparison just to see how much of shift GEM run is towards EURO.

Less of a shift, and more of an entirely different solution. Immense volatility.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEFS is out to hour 120 and it looks worse so far...

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I think this GEM run indicates that models will cave to EURO.

The GFS, GEM, and ICON all show warm 850mb temps later next week... as do the EPS and GEFS.   

Meanwhile the ECMWF is showing one of the greatest arctic blasts in history at the same time.    Pretty crazy.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It’s the flagship model in the US. It use to be a lot more right…. It’s still the #2 model behind the Euro…….ish

I know this, but it's been a dumpster fire since the most recent upgrade

[Brennan]

WTF IS going on here. This is WILD.

[HuskyMaestro]

5 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I think Euro holds or gets better and 6z GFS is a big improvement.

After the day we've had, all I could ask for is the Euro to hold and bring on a 2013 Seahawks defense.

[Mid Valley Duck]

UKMET much closer to GEM than GFS

[snow_wizard]

That is quite a change!

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

The ridge ballooning up north so fast has been a red flag for a couple days now...in all models, even the ones that eventually deliver.

Gotta have a legit forcing mechanism to push that Arctic air south.

That forcing mechanism is brief, but it's there. I've seen Arctic air seep its way in with worse upper level support. Some models are less aggressive with breaking down that ridge than others, which alters potential beyond day 6.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS could not be farther apart late next week.    The complete opposite pattern.

The GEM made a big step toward the ECMWF tonight.  This is far from over.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Less of a shift, and more of an entirely different solution. Immense volatility.

Well with such model disagreement that can be expected, one has to win.

[yellowstone]

11 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

curious why people are so hell bent on thinking GFS is somehow the correct one even though it's been the least consistent?  is it just overall westside pessimism?  shellshock from getting burned in the past. what is it? 

I guess we'll know soon enough with the euro.  such a weird setup indeed

 

My 2 cents is it’s because the Euro is so different from its own ensembles so we’re prepared for that to cave so we want GFS to be something good it can cave to, or provide support for EURO’s solution. If EURO and EPS were in lockstep, we’d be ignoring GFS. 

[Doinko]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

That forcing mechanism is brief, but it's there. I've seen Arctic air seep its way in with worse upper level support. Some models are less aggressive with breaking down that ridge than others, which alters potential beyond day 6.

What do you think about the pattern behind the Euro's solution?

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is quite a change!

Posted that as well! Can't wait to see what Euro brings. Hard to imagine that our best model loses.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Obviously the EURO is completely out to lunch. That doesn't mean the GFS is right either. The GEM solution is something I could see happening... Though probably not that extreme. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GFS, GEM, and ICON all show warm 850mb temps later next week... as do the EPS and GEFS.   

Meanwhile the ECMWF is showing one of the greatest arctic blasts in history at the same time.    Pretty crazy.

When the operational massively disagrees with the ensemble mean, it undermines confidence.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, yellowstone said:

My 2 cents it’s because the Euro is so different from its own ensembles so we’re prepared for that to cave so we want GFS to be something good it can cave to, or provide support for EURO’s  solutions. If EURO and EPS were in lockstep, we’d be ignoring GFS. 

This a good point.   The GEFS and EPS are the biggest red flags for me.    

And the 00Z GEFS is going nowhere and trending a little warmer again.

But man... I never bet against a consistent ECMWF.    If its the same tonight its going to be hard to discount.  

[snow_wizard]

One thing all models show is serious vodka cold in BC.  That makes the potential that much greater.

[Nov1985]

This is one of my favorite forecast model incidents of all time. I'm saving this GFS Christmas day snowfall fcst map! 

 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

When the operational massively disagrees with the ensemble mean, it undermines confidence.

Yeah to be honest, these situations are exactly what ensembles were made for.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GEM made a big step toward the ECMWF tonight.  This is far from over.

I don't really feel like it did at all. It brings in a very cold maritime airmass in what becomes a very progressive pattern.