PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Dave]

6 minutes ago, MWG said:

Let's be real the biggest losers for snow are the towns in Southern Oregon lol  but that makes it even more fun  of what to expect every winter around here. 

I've always been surprised at how little snow Medford and Ashland get given their decent elevation. I'm guessing that the beefy coastal/Siskiyou mountains to the west are a factor and of course being farther south. 

[Deweydog]

Might be a good night to put down the phone and watch Ernest Saves Christmas.

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z ICON could not be more opposite of the ECMWF for the middle of next week.    Just ridiculous.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Icon goes full Canadian

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Losing the ICON this early is the equivalent of Hillary losing Florida right off the bat in 2016. 

[snow_wizard]

I think it's possible we won't know for sure for another 2 days or so as delicate as this situation is.  Even the runs that fail look very promising earlier in the run.  The stuff after the block is fully set up is totally theoretical at this point.

[Meatyorologist]

Out to hour (nice) on Pivotal.

Blauck is looking bedder.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Losing the ICON this early is the equivalent of Hillary losing Florida right off the bat in 2016. 

That model has been all over the place the last few days.

[MWG]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

I've always been surprised at how little snow Medford and Ashland get given their decent elevation. I'm guessing that the beefy coastal/Siskiyou mountains to the west are a factor and of course being farther south. 

The high terrain around just makes it more difficult. Feels like it has to be very specific scenarios for snow to fall heck even just rain. Rain shadow for the win! 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Out to hour (nice) on Pivotal.

Blauck is looking bedder.

Are you talking GFS?

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Chris said:

I got over a foot with that one last April.  It was one of my all time favorites despite wiping out all my apples, cherries, pears, plums and peaches for the year.

That was by far the costliest snowstorm we’ve experienced. Ended up replacing a lot of landscape and we only got about 4.5 inches.

[OysterPrintout]

model riding the ICON really says more about the GFS than it does the ICON

[MWG]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Might be a good night to put down the phone and watch Ernest Saves Christmas.

Or the best Christmas movie besides National Lampoon. Die Hard! 

[Terreboner]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That model has been all over the place the last few days.

They all have.  If the Euro shows complete pullback tonight then I will definitely believe.  That being said, and knowing this place as well as I do, we could all be waking up to amazing model agreement across the board.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Out to hour (nice) on Pivotal.

Blauck is looking bedder.

The Bloch is healthy as an ox. It’s so healthy it won’t stop sprinting northbound.

[Doinko]

Just now, Deweydog said:

That was by far the costliest snowstorm we’ve experienced. Ended up replacing a lot of landscape and we only got about 4.5 inches.

We had around 2" of very slushy snow here. Didn't really stick to roads much and all melted by the end of the day but it was a really amazing event for so late

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think it's possible we won't know for sure for another 2 days or so as delicate as this situation is.  Even the runs that fail look very promising earlier in the run.  The stuff after the block is fully set up is totally theoretical at this point.

I would say losing the EURO would be like a certain ORANGE person losing Georgia and Arizona. No coming back from that. 

[Dave]

I've had Fletch saved on the DVR for a couple of years. Perhaps it's time to check out Dr Rosenrosen again. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How about a sports analogy. The good news is after the 12z EURO we are ahead 28-3. Bad news is Matt Ryan is our QB!

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Are you talking GFS?

I actually slipped a $20 to Penelope Endersby for an exclusive sneak peak at the 00z Euro. Watching it roll out in person at at a specially sanctioned showing at the West End Theatre, snuggling with my giant stuffed downvote.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, Dave said:

I've always been surprised at how little snow Medford and Ashland get given their decent elevation. I'm guessing that the beefy coastal/Siskiyou mountains to the west are a factor and of course being farther south. 

Part of it is they are much drier. Medford averages 18.4"/year, Ashland 19.5 (rainfall, not snowfall). Roughly half of what SEA and PDX get.

[GHweatherChris]

3 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

They all have.  If the Euro shows complete pullback tonight then I will definitely believe.  That being said, and knowing this place as well as I do, we could all be waking up to amazing model agreement across the board.

I have a feeling we will wake up to some form of model agreement, but.....  things have to start amazing and that isn't happening so.....

[snow_wizard]

The block is a tad beefier on this GFS run.  That's a big deal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The block is a tad beefier on this GFS run.  That's a big deal.

I see some minor improvements... But I thought that early on with the 18z, so don't trust me.

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How about a sports analogy. The good news is after the 12z EURO we are ahead 28-3. Bad news is Matt Ryan is our QB!

 

[Dave]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Part of it is they are much drier. Medford averages 18.4"/year, Ashland 19.5 (rainfall, not snowfall). Roughly half of what SEA and PDX get.

Roughly Eugene too if you look at the latest 30 year running average. 

[Slushy Inch]

So far so good.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The block is a tad beefier on this GFS run.  That's a big deal.

Knew I had a purpose here..

Take that, Mom!

[Slushy Inch]

Pretty big improvement so far...

[LowerGarfield]

23 minutes ago, MWG said:

Let's be real the biggest losers for snow are the towns in Southern Oregon lol  but that makes it even more fun  of what to expect every winter around here. 

When was the last time you had measurable snow?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At hour 96 the improvements are more noticeable. Not sure they are enough. 

[Slushy Inch]

Pretty big shift for less than 5 days out.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This run is better. Block is stronger, further south. Looks like it might dig better.

[Kolk1604]

Cold air looks further along 

[lowlandsnow]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Winter cancel

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I actually slipped a $20 to Penelope Endersby for an exclusive sneak peak at the 00z Euro. Watching it roll out in person at at a specially sanctioned showing at the West End Theatre, snuggling with my giant stuffed downvote.

I really hope the Euro sticks to what it's showing but it's such a weird outcome

[SouthHillFrosty]

Oh shiit

[snow_wizard]

Maybe....just maybe.

[Meatyorologist]

If it weren't for that lewd vorticity orgy south of the Aleutians, that block might have actually sent us the business end of that TPV towards the last legs of its life. All in all it's a slight move towards the Euro, annotated by some hockey-playing dillwads.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I see some minor improvements... But I thought that early on with the 18z, so don't trust me.

It's certainly better.