PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

It's not the code

That appears to be the case alright.

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It seems to me we are due for a time where we get the opposite of a rug pull.  Jan 2005 and Jan 2011 need to be made up for.

Or one could say it's been awhile since there was a big one.

Although this would not be up there with either of those, if it fails it did not make it within 5 days of model range.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Or one could say it's been awhile since there was a big one.

Although this would not be up there with either of those, if it fails it did not make it within 5 days of model range.

I agree.  Not nearly as terrible as some past ones.  My point stands though.  Opposite of rug pulls can happen.

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

For the medium-range forecasts an ensemble of 52 individual ensemble members are created twice a day. One member is at a higher spatial resolution than the other members (called the HRES at ECMWF), its initial state is the most accurate estimate of the current conditions and it uses the currently best description of the model physics. 

The HRES provides a highly detailed description of future weather and averaged over many forecasts it is the most accurate forecast for a certain period, which is currently estimated as 10 days for large scale properties of the atmosphere. However for any particular forecast it may not be the most skilful member of the ensemble. Also when viewed in isolation it cannot provide an estimate of forecast uncertainty or confidence.

Another member of the ensemble (CNTL: Control forecast) is at a lower spatial resolution than the HRES but at that lower resolution it utilises the most accurate estimate of the current conditions and the currently best description of the model physics. Its significance for the ensemble is that it provides the unperturbed member to which the perturbations for the remainder of the ensemble members are applied.

The perturbed members (50 members) are similar to the CNTL but their initial states and model physics have been perturbed to explore the currently understood range of uncertainty in the observations and the model. They provide a range of possible future weather states. When averaged over many forecasts (although not necessarily for any particular forecast) these have lower skill than either the HRES or the CNTL.  However they do provide an estimate of the forecast uncertainty or confidence.

I thought there might be some changes to the physics applied.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It seems to me we are due for a time where we get the opposite of a rug pull.  Jan 2005 and Jan 2011 need to be made up for.

This seems a lot like 2011 and 2020 to a lesser extent. Some ridiculous model runs, but none of the models were all on the same page at any one time, and then things just all fell apart. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One wise man at the NWS always liked to say....when all else is equal go with persistence.  We haven't had anything like that in weeks.

On the other hand. Knowing our climate the odds of not getting a stretch like that at some point are pretty low. Trust me, I don't want to blow our cool December with a massive Christmas week torch, but sometimes that's just how the cookie crumbles. 

[GHweatherChris]

Ya, this situation would not even qualify for a minor rug pull.  Rug pulls start at 72 hours out, max.

[Kolk1604]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Ya, this situation would not even qualify for a minor rug pull.  Rug pulls start at 72 hours out, max.

And you have to believe. I'm pretty sure not a lot of people do here right now 

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

On the other hand. Knowing our climate the odds of not getting a stretch like that at some point are pretty low. Trust me, I don't want to blow our cool December with a massive Christmas week torch, but sometimes that's just how the cookie crumbles. 

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

And you have to believe. I'm pretty sure not a lot of people do here right now 

Potential is better than nothing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If I remember the 2011 event correctly, the major rug pull happened like 120-144 hours out, but then after a day or two the models kind of brought the event back only to completely crush our dreams about 12 hours later. 

So it would be like if we have an awesome 12z GFS run on Thursday and then all model support completely collapses on the 00z runs. 

Edited December 14, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Meanwhile a lot of single digits out in S. Central and SE Oregon. 

[Cold Snap]

I honestly don’t know if I’ve ever been so nervous for a Euro run. Knowing how consistent it is though I feel like it will show something similar though not as cold.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If I remember the 2011 event correctly, the major rug pull happened like 120-144 hours out, but then after a day or two the models kind of brought the event back only to completely crush our dreams about 12 hours later. 

So it would be like if we have an awesome 12z GFS run on Thursday and then all model support completely collapses on the 00z runs. 

Sounds about right. There was quite a bit of snow north of here and a sloppy overrunning event. But then we had one of our most impressive late February airmasses the following month.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GEM made a big step toward the ECMWF tonight.  This is far from over.

Good improvements inside a week. Just need to see the EURO hold serve now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Sounds about right. There was quite a bit of snow north of here and a sloppy overrunning event. But then we had one of our most impressive late February airmasses the following month.

What's funny is the late December/early January period that year was actually very chilly to cold across the PNW and almost no one remembers that because of the model fail. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Looking like no matter what happens early/mid-next week, it’s going to be warm leading up to and for Christmas.

[Doinko]

Even though this may not work out, at least we have this run lol

 

[Slushy Inch]

GFS gets there LOL

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If I had to take a guess I'd say euro will come in about 1/2 as cold compared to the 12z. So 850mb around 10. No way it maintains with the gfs so far off. But it is a strange coincidence to see the gfs off in outerspace right after the upgrade.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

GFS gets there LOL

If that verifies, then it's worth it!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

36 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW...there were some members on the 18z EPS that indicated a colder outcome.

Glad to hear that!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If I had to take a guess I'd say euro will come in about 1/2 as cold compared to the 12z. So 850mb around 10. No way it maintains with the gfs so far off. But it is a strange coincidence to see the gfs off in outerspace right after the upgrade.

If the GFS ends up being closest to what happens then maybe the upgrade was worth our hard earned taxpayer dollars. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If the GFS ends up being closest to what happens then maybe the upgrade was worth our hard earned taxpayer dollars. 

nah, not until it can give a worth a shiit snowmap its trash

[Nov1985]

We are just south of the ICON split point. Got to be hard to forecast all the crazy stuff showing up next week.

 

[Nov1985]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If the GFS ends up being closest to what happens then maybe the upgrade was worth our hard earned taxpayer dollars. 

The 40" snow maps alone were worth $1M.

[Perturbed Member]

55 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think you definitely get pretty consistent and noticeable east wind if you're south of Washougal River Road on that little ridge. That particular area has seen some pretty extreme wind events. But the elevation makes a huge difference and you'll be high enough (and wet enough) to get an onshore flow boost and low enough to stay in the low level gorge cold pools with offshore flow. It does make significant ice a bigger concern, but the snowfall averages are likely in the 20"+ range up there at 700-900'.

I think somewhere like Yacolt at a similar elevation gets a fair amount more precip, but also warms up much more quickly so their snowcover days are fewer overall.

Good to know. Sounds pretty solid. I am considering a spot above 800 ft south of Washougal River Road. The biggest worry is that the wind will get old quickly. The wind in Corbett was bad enough to make Mark Nelsen move I think. 

I am also looking at a few spots in the OR Coast Range at 1000 ft and on the Chehalem mountains. 

Friends and family think I am an absolute nutjob for weighing climate so heavily when looking at real estate

but it would be nice to not be a low elevation peasant for once. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Nov1985 said:

We are just south of the ICON split point. Got to be hard to forecast all the crazy stuff showing up next week.

 

Second revision to the counter (and counting) I see. First the time gets pushed back, then the target is Arctic air in Kamloops instead of the lowlands.

At this rate, by tomorrow, it will be tracking the arrival of the arctic front in Prince George.

Not exactly confidence-inspiring in Winter Storm Godot.

[Kolk1604]

00z EMCWF... has initialized 

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[Frontal Snowsquall]

10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Even though this may not work out, at least we have this run lol

 

It’s just hard to go against the EURO and it’s been pretty consistent. I think it holds serve tonight. Maybe not as cold as the 12z but I think it will still show an Arctic Blast for the PNW. Either way, we will know in about an hour or so!  

[Phishy Wx]

hide for pets, hide your wives

[Rubus Leucodermis]

[High Desert Mat?]

If the gfs is right I’ll be fine with it as long as that 384 hr map verified as well. Let’s gooooo eurooooooooo!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Here we go! Sorry for absence for the past 8 hours I have been working on setting up a Christmas display in the kitchen. It takes forever to measure the gold foil paper, then cut it, then the next piece, and so on. I think I've been up/down the ladder 60-70 times. It's all worth it though.

[Gradient Keeper]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Quick check of the list, yup we're all here.

[Terreboner]

Time to roll out the red carpet.  No, not +15 850 colored red.   Perhaps we should call it the blue carpet!!!  All hail the king!!!!

I will be back in 30 to see how crazy you guys really are. 

[Phishy Wx]

Cracked a Sierra Nevada Celebration Ale in anticipation

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Quick check of the list, yup we're all here.

I am out, gotta be up at 2 AM for work tomorrow.

[Cloud]

Breathe!