PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Doinko]

Trough digs slightly better than the 12z

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Trough digs slightly better than the 12z

Looks quite a bit better.

[Slushy Inch]

[Slushy Inch]

[SouthHillFrosty]

A little better on the 00z……

[Nov1985]

Better early at least.

 

[SnarkyGoblin]

3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

These run to run maps are neat.

[Slushy Inch]

Day 5

[Doinko]

Cold air quite a bit further south compared to 12z and previous 00z

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

[umadbro]

PDX NWS

 

The bottom line is that there
 remain a large range of possibilities early next week both regards to
 cold air and precipitation. Even if the cold and snowy scenarios do
 not pan out, which ensemble guidance would suggest there is a high
 likelihood of happening, would expect at least another couple runs of
 an operational model or two to show a high impact winter weather
 scenario for the region as the operational models bounce around the
 ensemble space. Until the ensembles start to hone in on a scenario,
 deterministic runs of the GFS, ECMWF or GEM will be of limited
 utility and perhaps give you a false sense of confidence in a
 particular scenario panning out. -Neuman

[lowlandsnow]

The GFS was better early too and was a disaster hopefully the ECMWF is different

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, SnarkyGoblin said:

These run to run maps are neat.

I agree, that's why I love posting them

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, umadbro said:

PDX NWS

 

The bottom line is that there
 remain a large range of possibilities early next week both regards to
 cold air and precipitation. Even if the cold and snowy scenarios do
 not pan out, which ensemble guidance would suggest there is a high
 likelihood of happening, would expect at least another couple runs of
 an operational model or two to show a high impact winter weather
 scenario for the region as the operational models bounce around the
 ensemble space. Until the ensembles start to hone in on a scenario,
 deterministic runs of the GFS, ECMWF or GEM will be of limited
 utility and perhaps give you a false sense of confidence in a
 particular scenario panning out. -Neuman

Those colors are awful!

[Slushy Inch]

GFS vs EURO for 4pm Monday

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, umadbro said:

PDX NWS

 

The bottom line is that there
 remain a large range of possibilities early next week both regards to
 cold air and precipitation. Even if the cold and snowy scenarios do
 not pan out, which ensemble guidance would suggest there is a high
 likelihood of happening, would expect at least another couple runs of
 an operational model or two to show a high impact winter weather
 scenario for the region as the operational models bounce around the
 ensemble space. Until the ensembles start to hone in on a scenario,
 deterministic runs of the GFS, ECMWF or GEM will be of limited
 utility and perhaps give you a false sense of confidence in a
 particular scenario panning out. -Neuman

I’m in the 10th shade of blue!! 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

The GFS was better early too and was a disaster hopefully the ECMWF is different

GEM and GFS are bad for different reasons-- I'm not entirely sure the early changes were the cause of the trainwreck. I think the GFS just resolves small synoptic differences that have huge ramifications downstream differently.

[OysterPrintout]

well this is new 

[Nov1985]

A bit more, a quick pscz, and farther south.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Portland gets on the board before Seattle!!

[Front Ranger]

18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

JAYA says no. 

JANO

[Doinko]

Just now, OysterPrintout said:

well this is new 

It was actually on yesterday's 00z run as well. Much heavier snow on that run but nice to see this at least

[MikeInEverett]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I’m in the 10th shade of blue!! 

Definitely somewhere between 5.5-6”! Pretty solid.

[MossMan]

I find it interesting that some of the pro Mets always default to the GFS over the other models, even the Euro….

[Slushy Inch]

Day 6... Looks ok for WA I guess

[lowlandsnow]

When does the operational become more important than ensembles?

[lowlandsnow]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Day 6... Looks ok for WA I guess

I think WA will get a lot of snow from this first system

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Day 6... Looks ok for WA I guess

Nope, 40’s and rain. 
 

JAYA

[lowlandsnow]

Looks good further south than GEM and GFS

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

I think WA will get a lot of snow from this first system

The Sunday one? I am in the PSCZ and hope to get a couple inches.

[Nov1985]

The invisible fence holds a bit here.

[Requiem]

No clue if this EURO run will be kind to PDX or give us any kind of offshore flow-- that being said just looking at it it is far cleaner synoptically. Some weird and messy cyclogenesis that's present on the GFS isn't here.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

When does the operational become more important than ensembles?

Generally within 4-5 days.

[lowlandsnow]

3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

The Sunday one? I am in the PSCZ and hope to get a couple inches.

I was wrong but I thought this run would have a lot of snow for the Tuesday-Wednesday one

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

The invisible fence holds a bit here.

No forcing mechanism...block is up past Santa.

[Slushy Inch]

Day 7 Our block floats into the great beyond. Plenty of time to change.

[Cold Snap]

[lowlandsnow]

Wow gfs, gem, ecmwf, gefs, and the icon were all bad

[BLI snowman]

Definitely could be a poor man's January 2012 from the looks of things. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z runs tonight