PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Requiem]

I cannot fathom how difficult it is these days to get some cold offshore flow. Seems like it was all the rage in years pre-2019...

[SouthHillFrosty]

Yea….um…..no

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Definitely could be a poor man's January 2012 from the looks of things. 

Very poor man.

[Christensen87]

Welp. Gotta give this one to GFS. 

[umadbro]

King GFS it is!

[Requiem]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea….um…..no

The one time the EURO was consistent... I s'pose that's one less model to trust...

[Gradient Keeper]

[ShawniganLake]

Euro tends to like to dig energy to the SW more so than other models. 

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

I cannot fathom how difficult it is these days to get some cold offshore flow. Seems like it was all the rage in years pre-2019...

Even our fake cold has gotten incredibly pedestrian.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea….um…..no

If this comes to fruition, I'll run through my sprinklers.

[umadbro]

actually, all of the models really suck out here

 

[Gummy]

Well, this has been fun (not really). I think I am going to take tomorrow off.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Very poor man.

Yeah, even Euro yanks it back pretty quick mid-week to where low level arctic air never gets very established. On either side of the mountains.

[MikeInEverett]

Devastating trends, winter cancel, IT’S OVER.

 

Ok I think I got the top three classic lines in there

[Deweydog]

Those pot shots at the GFS circa last Sunday are starting to look kinda silly.

[lowlandsnow]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Anyone south of whatcom county should be getting nervous about this right now. 

Anyone south of whistler should be nervous now

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Even our fake cold has gotten incredibly pedestrian.

Might just be bad luck... but there is a part of me that feels as if there has been more than just a gradual shift in things lately. 

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Definitely could be a poor man's January 2012 from the looks of things. 

Yep. Another event that will fall under the "snowy for some, but not Arctic cold" side of things.

[TT-SEA]

Wow... appears the overrunning event is basically gone now.

The ECMWF went from showing 26 inches of snow in Seattle on the 00Z run last night... to 11 inches on the 12Z run... and now down to maybe an 1-2 inches on the 00Z run.    Unbelievable for the ECMWF.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Even our fake cold has gotten incredibly pedestrian.

I mean, you have to get the pattern to support it.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Nov1985]

850T to Thu afternoon

 

[Requiem]

Color me surprised-- I really did think Olympia north was relatively safe. 

[Cold Snap]

Well even though the Euro caved to the GFS. We know very well the next time the GFS is showing cold and snow and the Euro isn’t who’s caving to who.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Requiem said:

Color me surprised-- I really did think Olympia north was relatively safe. 

Nobody is safe. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

And like that, the ECMWF is now the worst looking model mid-to-late next week (sans ICON).

[lowlandsnow]

Maybe EPS will be better

[TT-SEA]

Just yesterday morning the ECMWF was showing a historic arctic blast for second half of next week.   Yesterday.   

And now this... total failure for the king.

[Cold Snap]

I think I need to go out and smoke a bowl after these 00z runs tonight.

[lowlandsnow]

Very cold in the central US

[Hawksfan2008]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nobody is safe. 

Not good…

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nobody is safe. 

Interestingly enough there IS a minor push of cold air into the basin that makes it possible for the metro area to stay as ZR... which is unfortunate. It is winter weather I suppose! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

I am taking a step back from model riding for a bit. I will let this pattern sort itself out. 

[SnowWillarrive]

I suppose we can only be happy if we get some snow on Monday-Wednesday 

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... appears the overrunning event is basically gone now.

The ECMWF went from showing 26 inches of snow in Seattle on the 00Z run last night... to 11 inches on the 12Z run... and now down to maybe an 1-2 inches on the 00Z run.    Unbelievable for the ECMWF.

Just goes to show - when a pattern looks tenuous due to fluid/unstable blocking (which ALL models have shown for days now), no model can be trusted really for cold and snow.

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

Very cold in the central US

And a snowstorm for the North East

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm rooting for an ice storm! Get some kind of fun weather action out of this! C'MON!!!! MBG!

[ShawniganLake]

Christmas was also very warm in 2005.