June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[wx_statman]

Roseburg hit 103 yesterday, one degree short of their legit June record from 1942. Pretty impressive.

 

Impressive reading.

 

However, as a note of caution - the RBG climo record is very disjointed. It only covers 1931-1965 and 1998-present. 

 

The Roseburg KQEN (COOP) was the only operating station in Roseburg from 1965-1998. That station tends to run a couple degrees warmer than RBG, but nevertheless it recorded 106 in June 1992. 

[Front Ranger]

Impressive reading.

 

However, as a note of caution - the RBG climo record is very disjointed. It only covers 1931-1965 and 1998-present. 

 

The Roseburg KQEN (COOP) was the only operating station in Roseburg from 1965-1998. That station tends to run a couple degrees warmer than RBG, but nevertheless it recorded 106 in June 1992. 

 

Good catch. However, it seems that COOP station is more prone to really extreme readings. For example, 107 in May 2008? 110 in August 2002? Way warmer than what the airport saw.

[wx_statman]

Good catch. However, it seems that COOP station is more prone to really extreme readings. For example, 107 in May 2008? 110 in August 2002? Way warmer than what the airport saw.

 

The differences are 2 and 3 degrees, respectively.

 

RBG hit 105 in May 2008 (for some reason the monthly stats @ WRCC don't reflect this, but the daily records do - completely backwards from the problem we've just been talking about), and Riddle hit 106. That heat wave was off the charts for May, and the 107 at Roseburg KQEN doesn't actually jump out as much as it might seem at first glance. 

 

In August 2002, RBG hit 107 and all-time record highs were set just to the north in both Leaburg (108) and at Fern Ridge Dam (108). 

 

In other words, there's at least some corroboration for the KQEN readings from both of those heat waves. 

 

Having said that, I have noticed that the KQEN readings tend to be conspicuously warm in some heat waves. There's certainly a chance that this sensor is situated around concrete or something to that effect, causing readings that are a couple degrees warmer than what you would expect. I've wondered about that in the past. 

[TT-SEA]

94 here now... noticeable east wind.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Cloudy here. Pretty good chance yesterday was the peak here.

 

Looks like there's a bit of upper level instability today, but it hasn't had much impact on temperature here. Currently 82F, while it was only 78F at the same time yesterday.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Cloudy here. Pretty good chance yesterday was the peak here.

 

 

Been seeing filtered sun for the past hour or so here in Bellingham.  A little bit more of a breeze but still pretty warm at my location.  

[wx_statman]

96 at MMV. No marine push yet. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

In spite of the clouds and increased humidity out here it's already up to 87F, warmer than it got any time yesterday. YYJ is following close behind, looks like there's still a realistic shot at a daily record there.

[BLI snowman]

Probably no monthly record for PDX today.

[wx_statman]

Probably no monthly record for PDX today.

 

We're running 2 degrees behind 6/26/2006...but we didn't have the dry air at our doorstep that day like we do today. 

 

It'll be close. 

[wx_statman]

100 at PDX and 97 at OLM.

[Jbolin]

KSEA just tied the record for June from 1995 at 96F 

[Jesse]

I can report from here on the summit of Mount Hebo that the marine layer is currently starting to creep up the coastal valleys.

[James Jones]

PDX tied the record at 101, so now 6/25 is the only date in June to have hit 100+ more than once.

 

McMinnville down to 85 now. That marine push is going to feel so nice once it hits.

[Geos]

Made it to 95 here a little while ago. Too hot for my liking. Looks like SEA hit 94 today.

[BLI snowman]

Made it to 95 here a little while ago. Too hot for my liking. Looks like SEA hit 94 today.

96 in between obs.

[wx_statman]

Monthly records tied at both SEA and OLM today. 

 

96 at SEA, previously on 6/9/1955 and 6/30/1995. Downtown reached 98 on 6/25/1925, 97 on 6/30/1942, and 96 on 6/8/1903.

 

98 at OLM, previously on 6/18/1982. The previous city station (Priest Point Park) reached 101 on 6/26/1925, 100 on 6/30/1942, and 98 on 6/29/1924.

[Jesse]

Looking NW to the marine layer moving in over Tillamook Bay (from the summit of Mt. Hebo).

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Pretty impressive temperature gradients again over Victoria today, currently 60F at James Bay and 57F at Trial Island, but 84F just 5 miles to the north. Even just 2 miles north around downtown it's still about 80F. The marine layer in this area must be very shallow.

[BLI snowman]

Monthly records tied at both SEA and OLM today.

 

96 at SEA, previously on 6/9/1955 and 6/30/1995. Downtown reached 98 on 6/25/1925, 97 on 6/30/1942, and 96 on 6/8/1903.

 

98 at OLM, previously on 6/18/1982. The previous city station (Priest Point Park) reached 101 on 6/26/1925, 100 on 6/30/1942, and 98 on 6/29/1924.

Yeah, SEA underperformed in the 1955 event. That station was a perpetual cold pocket back then.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, SEA underperformed in the 1955 event. That station was a perpetual cold pocket back then.

 

Yeah, as impressive as the 96 was at SEA that early in June, considering some of the other numbers in the Seattle area for that event (100 at Kent, 98 at UW, 99 at Boeing Field, 100 at Bothell, 100 Seattle City office, 101 in Puyallup), it kind of underrepresented the event.

 

June 1955 was probably the hottest heat wave for the Seattle area from 1926-1980. Though August 1960 was very close.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, SEA underperformed in the 1955 event. That station was a perpetual cold pocket back then.

And now it's a Hot Pocket.

 

I'll be here all week.

[Anti Marine Layer]

What does 90 F feel like to a person living on the Oregon Coast who is accustomed to high temperatures between 55 F and 65 F most of the year?

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is much warmer for next weekend than previous runs.  

[TT-SEA]

99 here today.   

[TT-SEA]

Lake Washington today...

 

[GHweatherChris]

Would you be ok with this being reposted over there? I think it would be more valuable for Mark Nelsen to be aware of this. Perhaps he could make a blog post about the NCEI "scrubbing" process rather than making statements about the coastal climate based on incomplete data.

So nobody reposted this on Mark's blog.....

[Jesse]

So nobody reposted this on Mark's blog.....

Been out all day....

 

.....

 

..

 

Planning to tonight.

[ShawniganLake]

Topped out at 90 here, even with mostly cloudy skies at times. Very mild this evening at 77 currently. Last evening it was in the mid 60s by now.

[Jesse]

Topped out at 90 here, even with mostly cloudy skies at times. Very mild this evening at 77 currently. Last evening it was in the mid 60s by now.

We are running 8-10 degrees cooler than this time last night down here.

[Jesse]

The models seem to want to delay that early July trough forever. My guess is that is that it either doesn't happen or ends up way weaker than currently advertised once it finally makes it in. We seem to be stuck in a warm rut now.

[ShawniganLake]

We are running 8-10 degrees cooler than this time last night down here.

No sea breeze here, yet.

[TT-SEA]

The models seem to want to delay that early July trough forever. My guess is that is that it either doesn't happen or ends up way weaker than currently advertised once it finally makes it in. We seem to be stuck in a warm rut now.

 

Sort of feels like it.

[Jesse]

Sort of feels like it.

 

I'll take it. Maybe if Phil is wrong about June/July being frigid he will be wrong about the latter part of the summer as well. 

[TT-SEA]

I'll take it. Maybe if Phil is wrong about June/July being frigid he will be wrong about the latter part of the summer as well.

Maybe.

 

But sort of feels like a full warm summer in progress... but maybe that is just because of the heat this weekend.

[wx_statman]

I love how my Hot Pocket joke killed the thread earlier.

[Jesse]

Maybe.

 

But sort of feels like a full warm summer in progress... but maybe that is just because of the heat this weekend.

Well your definition of "full warm summers" seem to include ones that saw mid-July frosts and Cascade snows. So not sure if that means much.

[TT-SEA]

Well your definition of "full warm summers" seem to include ones that saw mid-July frosts and Cascade snows. So not sure if that means much.

 

July of 1901 was a very nice month in book.   WAY better than July of 1983 or 1993 for example.   

 

And you know what I meant about this summer.   I am guessing you probably have the same general feeling. 

[ShawniganLake]

Some warmer water building off the coast.

 

In the end, I think this summer ends up a little warm but not scorching like some recent ones.

[Jesse]

July of 1901 was a very nice month in book. WAY better than July of 1983 or 1993 for example.

 

And you know what I meant about this summer. I am guessing you probably have the same general feeling.

That we will see a fifth consecutive above to well above average summer? Well it is statistically unlikely. I can tell you that much.