July 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[wx_statman]

Good old MRF-MOS guidance (which I can't believe is still around) is spitting out 107's for SLE and EUG next Wednesday. Also 98 for Sexton Summit which would break their all-time record.

 

This guidance has been known to be wrong before. 

[wx_statman]

You're getting lumped in with me and HRC. Not a good place to be.

 

It was certainly starting to look that way. 

[Deweydog]

Good old MRF-MOS guidance (which I can't believe is still around) is spitting out 107's for SLE and EUG next Wednesday. Also 98 for Sexton Summit which would break their all-time record.

 

This guidance has been known to be wrong before.

Cold bias.

[Jesse]

I don't have a point of view on this. All I know is that wavelengths change as we transition from Aug to Sep, a sequence that can shake up the prevailing pattern that had dominated JJA (or JA).

Oh for sure. I'm not arguing against that. This tendency can clearly lead to a lot of different types of outcomes though. It's not as simple as "cool midsummer = hot September".

[Jesse]

18Z GFS is certainly not backing down... and maybe extending the heat.

 

We will be in Minnesota one week from today... looks chilly there while its baking here.

 

 

Your relatives are going to be absolutely furious.

[TT-SEA]

Your relatives are going to be absolutely furious.

 

I am aware.

 

65 with showers is less than ideal... but so is 105 and sunny.

[BLI snowman]

True July has been amazing and June was fine outside those two days. If this can be a 2-3 day heatwave with a crash I'll be okay. Would be nice to make it through 2-3 summers in a row and not hit 100, but apparently that is to much to ask for these days. 

 

Are you forgetting that PDX didn't hit 100 in 4/5 summers from 2010-2014?

 

PDX hit 100 in every summer between 1977 and 1988. We have a long ways to go to catch that.

[wx_statman]

Oh for sure. I'm not arguing against that. This tendency can clearly lead to a lot of different types of outcomes though. It's not as simple as "cool midsummer = hot September".

 

It certainly isn't.

[wx_statman]

Are you forgetting that PDX didn't hit 100 in 4/5 summers from 2010-2014?

 

PDX hit 100 in every summer between 1977 and 1988. We have a long ways to go to catch that.

 

And then we had 4 straight summers reach 105+ in the I-5 corridor from 1925-28. These heat waves are nothing new at least in the last 100 years. Different story before 1920 though.

[TT-SEA]

Ironically... Phil is leaving town just as the heat wave is starting.   That is the opposite of what he predicted.    A recurring theme this summer.  

[BLI snowman]

And then we had 4 straight summers reach 105+ in the I-5 corridor from 1925-28. These heat waves are nothing new at least in the last 100 years. Different story before 1920 though.

 

And it's even more difficult for Salem people to avoid an episode or two of triple digits. Probably the hottest part of the valley between Corvallis and there. Even a frigid summer like 1993 still managed a 100 degree reading at SLE in August.

[Front Ranger]

Are you forgetting that PDX didn't hit 100 in 4/5 summers from 2010-2014?

 

PDX hit 100 in every summer between 1977 and 1988. We have a long ways to go to catch that.

Way to spoil the narrative, dude.

[Front Ranger]

Ironically... Phil is leaving town just as the heat wave is starting. That is the opposite of what he predicted. A recurring theme this summer.

Assuming he survives his Perfect Storm fishing voyage.

[TT-SEA]

Assuming he survives his Perfect Storm fishing voyage.

 

55 and raining there... wind is not that strong though.

[TT-SEA]

Perfect day today... mostly sunny and 80 here.    Persistence would be nice.  

[luminen]

Tuktoyaktuk at 69.4N on the Arctic coast progged for a 78F/64F day on Monday. 

 

Even Deadhorse, AK at 70N was 76F today.

[Kayla]

For PDX, the 18z GFS tops out at 107 on the 2nd and 109 on the 3rd. Stays above 100 through the 5th. 

 

12z EPS continues it's trend upward as well, now up to 106 on the 2nd. A lot of members are literally off the charts above 30c @850mb which I haven't seen before in the PDX area.

 

I'm not a big fan of heat and I'm 800 miles away (and benefit from the western progression of the ridge over the last 36 hours) but this could be a fun one to track when you're threatening the all-time record.

[Deweydog]

Contest time!

[High Desert Mat!]

Contest time!

We'll use the honor system. Kramers out first.

[TT-SEA]

Phil is missing a big rain event at home while enjoying the endless light rain off the coast of BC.     DCA is approaching 3 inches since this afternoon.  

[Karl Bonner]

What I'd like to see is upper-level retrogression in late August (like right after the eclipse), so that we might get a cool early-season Canadian airmass from the NE.  That's always a fun one whenever it happens real early (or late)...

[Deweydog]

We'll use the honor system. Kramers out first.

[Deweydog]

Shades of July 2006 with current runs.

 

#highcloudshocker?

[ShawniganLake]

And then we had 4 straight summers reach 105+ in the I-5 corridor from 1925-28. These heat waves are nothing new at least in the last 100 years. Different story before 1920 though.

Shawnigan lake hasn't set a monthly record high during JJA since July 1941. Seems hard to believe.

[wx_statman]

Shawnigan lake hasn't set a monthly record high during JJA since July 1941. Seems hard to believe.

 

Yeah, it's hard to believe at first glance. But the reality is that we haven't seen an increase in the magnitude of our biggest heat waves over the past 100 years. Long term warming has manifested itself in the averages and in a reduction of extreme cold waves...but the top end has remained virtually unchanged. We've yet to match some of the biggest heat waves of the 1930s and 1940s across the US and Canada, including along the west coast.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Tuktoyaktuk at 69.4N on the Arctic coast progged for a 78F/64F day on Monday. 

 

Even Deadhorse, AK at 70N was 76F today.

 

Barrow, AK (which has a new name of Utqiaġvik) reached a balmy 65 F. That's warmer than Newport, OR and Morro Bay, CA.

1MB  :     Morro Bay             :     59 /  55 /  0.00

[BLI snowman]

Shades of July 2006 with current runs.

 

#highcloudshocker?

Friday may see some patented 87 degree lows near 181st in SE Portland.

[TT-SEA]

 

Barrow, AK (which has a new name of Utqiaġvik) reached a balmy 65 F. That's warmer than Newport, OR and Morro Bay, CA.

1MB  :     Morro Bay             :     59 /  55 /  0.00

 

Lovely evening there... surprised more people are not outside enjoying it.

 

[Deweydog]

36c at 925mb for Wednesday on the WRF.

 

#DEADBALLSACCURATE

[TT-SEA]

36c at 925mb for Wednesday on the WRF.

 

#DEADBALLSACCURATE

 

Don't walk around barefoot on the pavement that day... white hot.

 

[seattleweatherguy]

Don't walk around barefoot on the pavement that day... white hot.

 

Looks like upper 80s low 90s for seattle on that map

[stuffradio]

The 00z is insane... 100F for me next week.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, it's hard to believe at first glance. But the reality is that we haven't seen an increase in the magnitude of our biggest heat waves over the past 100 years. Long term warming has manifested itself in the averages and in a reduction of extreme cold waves...but the top end has remained virtually unchanged. We've yet to match some of the biggest heat waves of the 1930s and 1940s across the US and Canada, including along the west coast.

 

Thinking about this some more, July 2009 is pretty much the only heat wave in the past three decades that has really pushed the envelope west of the Cascades. Specifically for western WA.

[ShawniganLake]

Thinking about this some more, July 2009 is pretty much the only heat wave in the past three decades that has really pushed the envelope west of the Cascades. Specifically for western WA.

We had a deck of high clouds move over on the hottest day of July 2009. Happened during mid afternoon too and capped the temps around 2pm.

[wx_statman]

We had a deck of high clouds move over on the hottest day of July 2009. Happened during mid afternoon too and capped the temps around 2pm.

 

We got socked in with high clouds from t-storms on 7/22/2006. 850's of 25-27C and we only managed 93...could have hit 105 otherwise.

[Kayla]

12z GFS shoots out 113 on Thursday at PDX!

 

[Brennan]

I have an entirely new perspective on heatwaves now. Part of me is excited for the extreme, but the other part is like, ok my 7 month old is going to be miserable when it's grossly hot and he can't sleep. . .

[wx_statman]

12z GFS shoots out 113 on Thursday at PDX!

 

Screen Shot 2017-07-29 at 10.18.59 AM.png

 

I'm wondering if the GFS has gone completely off the rails. Even the MRF-MOS (based on the GFS) is spitting out 109-108 for EUG and 108-108 for SLE, although it's only showing 102-104 for PDX. 

[James Jones]

12z GFS shoots out 113 on Thursday at PDX!

 

Screen Shot 2017-07-29 at 10.18.59 AM.png

 

What's the Euro showing?

[TT-SEA]

What's the Euro showing?

 

ECMWF peaks at 110 on Thursday for PDX.

 

#runofthemill