August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[GobBluth]

All the models took a nasty turn.

since it looks like the tropical goodness out in the west/central pacific isn't going to be caught up in the jet it seems a stagnant pattern is in our future.

[Jesse]

12z ensembles still pretty solid on a cooldown starting in about a week. The operational appears to have been an outlier. For now...

[Phil]

12z ensembles still pretty solid on a cooldown starting in about a week. The operational appears to have been an outlier. For now...

The PNA/heatwave cycle has been following the MJO periodicity into the WPAC. There will be a cooldown during the second half of August, then forcing re-enters the WPAC sometime in September.

[stuffradio]

CFS has SSTs warming in September.

[stuffradio]

The GEPs weekly is torchy through all August.

[wx_statman]

1977 is actually looking like a pretty decent analog for this event. The 90+ warmth even started on the same date (7/31).

 

13 of the next 18 days went on to be 91 or warmer, with 5 at 100 or warmer. This stretch has the potential to be pretty similar, sans the occasional dips into the 80s, perhaps.

 

After that, the pattern crashed and fall basically started after 8/17. Would be nice to follow that piece of it as well.

 

That was such an epic pattern/seasonal flip. The marine push on 8/17 dropped SLE from 105 to 68 by 9pm. Essentially transitioned from summer to fall in about 4-5 hours, since this was also the last day that year with any meaningful heat. 

[Front Ranger]

Are we about to party like its August '77?

 

#septembericebox

[Jesse]

12z Euro wildly different from the 00z. Seems to be struggling with the pattern transition.

 

The good news is it starts taking the edge off the heat by Thursday.

[Deweydog]

#septembericebox

Get your own catch phrase!

[epiceast]

1977 is actually looking like a pretty decent analog for this event. The 90+ warmth even started on the same date (7/31).

 

13 of the next 18 days went on to be 91 or warmer, with 5 at 100 or warmer. This stretch has the potential to be pretty similar, sans the occasional dips into the 80s, perhaps.

 

After that, the pattern crashed and fall basically started after 8/17. Would be nice to follow that piece of it as well.

I'd prefer a solid week of fall and then back to camping and hiking weather sans burn ban until October.

[Front Ranger]

Get your own catch phrase!

 

Hashtags are meant to be shared.

 

#trending

[wx_statman]

Sunday looks like it might make a run at 100 in the Portland area. From the AFD this morning:

 

By 00Z Sun the upper ridge axis shifts inside 125W and a
nebulous upper low forms off the North California coast. Expect the
onshore low-level FLOW to weaken Sat night. Sun gets interesting as
the upper ridge moves inland over the forecast area. The latest
heat-risk guidance suggests an advisory may be needed for the
interior valleys and Columbia Gorge Sun.

 

With 850's at 22-23C and dead gradients, we should at least get up to 98 or thereabout. 

[TT-SEA]

Just got the car unpacked here and heard several loud claps of thunder and the sky opened up in a massive downpour.

[Deweydog]

Just got the car unpacked here and heard several loud claps of thunder and the sky opened up in a massive downpour.

What kind of car???

[Front Ranger]

Just got the car unpacked here and heard several loud claps of thunder and the sky opened up in a massive downpour.

 

Is it a purple rain?

[Geos]

Already up to 88 at home. Today might beat out yesterday's temperature due to the thinner smoke levels.

[Abbotsford_wx]

The smoke is so thick here today that I've recorded a maximum UV of 0.0. The last time I recorded no UV at all was on March 28th.

Interestingly, the smoke hasn't affected solar radiation as much. I recorded a max of 367 w/m2 so far today. A completely sunny day at this time of the year produces an average of about 875 w/m2, at least on my Davis.
 

The smoke has really taken the edge of this heatwave. We had just one really hot day in the mid 90's, and a couple of days near or just below 90. My high so far today is only 80F.

 

I'm a bit bummed because I would much rather be setting heat records right now than dealing with all this smoke.

[Front Ranger]

It's actually a little smoky all the way down here today.

[luminen]

Alright mother nature...Uncle!

 

Sunrise pic from two days ago and a late afternoon pic from today. This morning the sun did not have any rays whatsoever, it was just an opaque red/orange disc in the sky. I have never seen that. Still hurt to look at even with sunglasses though.

[ShawniganLake]

Smoke here is as thick as I've ever seen it. Pretty much looked like a cloudy afternoon here.

[stuffradio]

It's been "dark" much of the day today here.

[Dave]

A bit of a marine push here from the SW.  The smoke is basically gone and it definitely feels like a "heat wave over" moment.  It's a comfortable 80 degrees out.  A/C will be turned off finally and windows will be opened.  I wouldn't be surprised if we don't crack 90 tomorrow, which will be terrific if that happens.

[Jesse]

A bit of a marine push here from the SW. The smoke is basically gone and it definitely feels like a "heat wave over" moment. It's a comfortable 80 degrees out. A/C will be turned off finally and windows will be opened. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't crack 90 tomorrow, which will be terrific if that happens.

Don't know if we will be so lucky up here tomorrow, but it would definitely be nice.

[Deweydog]

Smoke has cleared here considerably.

[Jesse]

Smoke has cleared here considerably.

Crossing the Glenn Jackson earlier you could see a distinctive back edge to the smoke off to the NW. Seems that is moving over us now.

[Jesse]

Kelso down to 66. Nice nwrly push underway as well.

 

Would be nice to see even a weak intrusion of marine clouds down here in the morning.

[Dave]

If Oregon doesn't get some decent rainfall soon, I'm fearful a good chunk of the state will burn up due to the eclipse influx (500,000 to 1,000,000 people?).  Jesse, are you still planning on heading to central Oregon?  My tentative plan is to wait for the weather forecast a couple of days out and make a last minute bid for Lebanon or thereabouts if the weather looks good, or to leave a couple of days in advance to central/eastern Oregon if there might be cloud cover.  

 

One other option is to drive endlessly until I find Andrew's house in the Silver Falls area.  I'll try to find it based on the snow photos he's posted over the years and camp in the decently maintained backyard.

[Jesse]

The pattern shown on the 00Z GFS in the long range would be an absolute godsend.

[Jesse]

If Oregon doesn't get some decent rainfall soon, I'm fearful a good chunk of the state will burn up due to the eclipse influx (500,000 to 1,000,000 people?).  Jesse, are you still planning on heading to central Oregon?  My tentative plan is to wait for the weather forecast a couple of days out and make a last minute bid for Lebanon or thereabouts if the weather looks good, or to leave a couple of days in advance to central/eastern Oregon if there might be cloud cover.  

 

One other option is to drive endlessly until I find Andrew's house in the Silver Falls area.  I'll try to find it based on the snow photos he's posted over the years and camp in the decently maintained backyard.

 

Yes, we have campsites reserved near Madras. Planning on getting there several days early.

[Dave]

Yes, we have campsites reserved near Madras. Planning on getting there several days early.

It must be nice to have a concrete plan.  I have some family and friends that are really clueless about the apoceclipse and I'm expected to guide them into the totality zone.  I'm not happy about it because I've been warning them for months.  One way or the other, at least I will see it.  I don't care if I get stuck in gridlock on the way back.

[Jesse]

It must be nice to have a concrete plan.  I have some family and friends that are really clueless about the apoceclipse and I'm expected to guide them into the totality zone.  I'm not happy about it because I've been warning them for months.  One way or the other, at least I will see it.  I don't care if I get stuck in gridlock on the way back.

 

Getting a head start on the crowds is key I would think. There is talk of possible 12+ hour traffic jams directly before and after the event.

 

Tuesday the 22nd is my first day of classes at WSU Vancouver, with my first class at 9am. Going to be close, but I think if we hang out in Madras all day after the eclipse, then drive home in the middle of the night when traffic is lighter (possibly taking highway 197 as opposed to the busier highway 26) I will be able to make it on time.

[stuffradio]

The pattern shown on the 00Z GFS in the long range would be an absolute godsend.

Wow, the 00z is insane in the eye-candy range, over 2 inches of rain!

[Dave]

Getting a head start on the crowds is key I would think. There is talk of possible 12+ hour traffic jams directly before and after the event.

 

Tuesday the 22nd is my first day of classes at WSU Vancouver, with my first class at 9am. Going to be close, but I think if we hang out in Madras all day after the eclipse, then drive home in the middle of the night when traffic is lighter (possibly taking highway 197 as opposed to the busier highway 26) I will be able to make it on time.

D**n.  You'd think they would have foreseen this as an issue for the first day of classes.  My suggestion is to consider taking the first day off.  Of course, who really knows what the traffic will really be like.  My guess is terrible, but Y2K was supposed to be terrible as well.

[stuffradio]

There are only 2 or 3 members supporting 2+" of rain.

 

[Timmy]

Yes, we have campsites reserved near Madras. Planning on getting there several days early.

I have my Airbnb home open for those dates! My guest just backed out cause he said it was gonna be too packed in bend.

[ShawniganLake]

There are only 2 or 3 members supporting 2+" of rain.

 

MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

To me it looks like the wettest member is showing something closer to 1/4". (6mm).

[Dave]

I have my Airbnb home open for those dates! My guest just backed out cause he said it was gonna be too packed in bend.

What is the location of your Airbnb home?  Bend?

[stuffradio]

To me it looks like the wettest member is showing something closer to 1/4". (6mm).

I'm talking about total accumulation. 00Z GEM is not bad either though.

[Jesse]

There are only 2 or 3 members supporting 2+" of rain.

 

 

Thank goodness. Would hate to see any flooding.

[stuffradio]

Thank goodness. Would hate to see any flooding.

You really need to stop posting your interpretations of what you think others are saying, you're bad at it.