Niko Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 From what I have been reading and hearing, I believe almost everyone on this forum this Winter stands the chance of seeing a better Winter this year than last year, in terms of more snow and cold. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Joe D's Pioneer model suggests this for DJF... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Joe D's Pioneer model suggests this for DJF... Hmm, so the usual SE ridge via the Nina is trumped by the strong -QBO I presume? EDIT: BAMwx's thoughts seemed to retain it.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Hmm, so the usual SE ridge via the Nina is trumped by the strong -QBO I presume?Could be a plausible scenario. I sure hope there is more blocking this year bc if not, it will turn out very similar to last year but cooler. If the severe winter scenario were to happen, we would def need the blocking. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Joe D's Pioneer model suggests this for DJF... I thought this map looked familiar..here's what was posted before based on a weak Nina and -QBO. His just takes it to another level of brutal. LOL @ Niko's place - the big freeze! Remember, that's an avg all winter (-3ºF in spots), peak cold waves would be perhaps MUCH COLDER. Could be a plausible scenario. I sure hope there is more blocking this year bc if not, it will turn out very similar to last year but cooler. If the severe winter scenario were to happen, we would def need the blocking. Yep, always said 1st priority has to be "cold", then moisture, then storm track(s), then lastly for a truly historic winter, it usually comes down to how active it is. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Hmm, so the usual SE ridge via the Nina is trumped by the strong -QBO I presume? EDIT: BAMwx's thoughts seemed to retain it.. 20170928 BAMwx DJF 2018 precip chgs y-t-y.PNGPerfect! That is what we need. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Anyone here know if Jim Flower's commented on this upcoming winter season? I always enjoyed listening to his video's on FB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Anyone here know if Jim Flower's commented on this upcoming winter season? I always enjoyed listening to his video's on FB.He retired after last year, will no longer be doing his videos. Pretty disappointing!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 He retired after last year, will no longer be doing his videos. Pretty disappointing!! Not as disappointing as his winter forecast though amirite? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 CanSIPS suggesting a stronger ridge to the S/SE for Winter... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Not as disappointing as his winter forecast though amirite? Haha. It's a d**n shame though, I really did enjoy his videos. He busted BAD and I guarantee that's why he deleted his page. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Haha. It's a d**n shame though, I really did enjoy his videos. He busted BAD and I guarantee that's why he deleted his page.If you mean last winter, who didn't?? I wouldn't be to hard on the guy. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Haha. It's a d**n shame though, I really did enjoy his videos. He busted BAD and I guarantee that's why he deleted his page.I agree 100%. His winter forecast was atrocious last year, and he definitely caught flack for it. I feel bad for the guy, but that's part of the game of being a meteorologist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 I like what I saw today on the Euro Weeklies as it lines up with what is happening in the N PAC. After a back and forth pattern through the 24th, the trough in the NE PAC retrogrades west towards the Aleutians and Bearing Sea through the middle of November as a winter like pattern sets in. Lot's of ridging in the west and across NW NAMER to close out October and into November. This fits the Bearing Sea Rule which shifts towards a +PNA pattern to close out the month of October. Overall, the pattern is wet/active from the Plains/Midwest/Lakes/OV...cold pattern really takes over by middle of Nov heading into Thanksgiving week where the Lakes become active and ensembles are seeing a wintry pattern around the 17th through end of run (20th). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 Euro Weeklies Week 2-4 showing the ridging out west and troughy look out east...FWIW, this model has trended cooler overall for November over the last couple runs. I find it warm biased due to its bias out west with holding to much troughs and knowing that the waters are warming along NW NAMER coastline. Need to pay attention to modeling behavior Week 2 and beyond as we continue the path deeper into the cold season as their bias is to keep troughs hugging the coastline. CFSv2 is on the right track as far as what is happening in the NE PAC... 7-day SST change... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 6, 2017 Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 In the past 2 days, another round of tree turning has commenced - some fantastic colors breaking now. Also, looking at this morning's Lwr 48 hazards map, I couldn't help but see a tiny hint of a microcosm reflection of our winter ahead?? Cold dropping in from Canada, moist systems coming up through the central plains, and the systems cranking in the GL's (gale watches). Liking it! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 6, 2017 Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 So, there seems to be 2 camps in the analog dept. One group is reaching for 56-57, 81-82, & 13-14 based on a more La Nada ENSO state this winter. The other group is reaching for at least a weak if not mod Nina. For mby personally, both would (could) be winning combo's As for the west end of the sub, there's undoubtedly a difference. Not sure which is best for NE peeps tbh? This is from a Met in OH who is leaning weak (east based) Nina with a -QBO in his list of analogs, again limited to DJF: Ofc, this makes me salivate, especially the moisture anom's 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 6, 2017 Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 So, there seems to be 2 camps in the analog dept. One group is reaching for 56-57, 81-82, & 13-14 based on a more La Nada ENSO state this winter. The other group is reaching for at least a weak if not mod Nina. For mby personally, both would (could) be winning combo's As for the west end of the sub, there's undoubtedly a difference. Not sure which is best for NE peeps tbh? This is from a Met in OH who is leaning weak (east based) Nina with a -QBO in his list of analogs, again limited to DJF: 20171006 OHWeather winter analog composites.PNG Ofc, this makes me salivate, especially the moisture anom's This is exactly what I think and like to see. I'd say that is as close to what I think as anything I've seen, actually. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 6, 2017 Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 So, there seems to be 2 camps in the analog dept. One group is reaching for 56-57, 81-82, & 13-14 based on a more La Nada ENSO state this winter. The other group is reaching for at least a weak if not mod Nina. For mby personally, both would (could) be winning combo's As for the west end of the sub, there's undoubtedly a difference. Not sure which is best for NE peeps tbh? This is from a Met in OH who is leaning weak (east based) Nina with a -QBO in his list of analogs, again limited to DJF: 20171006 OHWeather winter analog composites.PNG Ofc, this makes me salivate, especially the moisture anom's 56-57 was ever so slightly above average here thanks to a 10" storm late in the season. Right now, 1956-57 seems like the most likely year of the 3 you listed. 2013-14 and 1981-82 both featured cold Octobers here, which we are not seeing right now. We are seeing an ever so slightly above average October ATM, similar to 1956-57. However, 1956-57 was VERY dry here, only recording .15" of precip the whole month. Considering the fact that on the 6th of the month here we're ALREADY an inch above normal for the month here, yeah that's not happening. How much precipitation we are getting now is really encouraging to me. Last year, the bulk of our precipitation in our very warm October came with 2 severe thunderstorms early on. This rain right now is coming on legitimate low pressure systems. If this keeps up, even with the above average temp anomalies, we will have no problem achieving above normal snowfall. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_3ae5450d457f40a38c38109956034877~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_508,h_406,al_c,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01/0d40d5_3ae5450d457f40a38c38109956034877~mv2.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 This could be helpfull https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_cb8c728a51a64745a77191e5b3bccd7a~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_508,h_368,al_c,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01/0d40d5_cb8c728a51a64745a77191e5b3bccd7a~mv2.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_3ae5450d457f40a38c38109956034877~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_508,h_406,al_c,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01/0d40d5_3ae5450d457f40a38c38109956034877~mv2.png https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_d0468c3ef41c407582ddd3c59da2ce58~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_508,h_406,al_c,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01/0d40d5_d0468c3ef41c407582ddd3c59da2ce58~mv2.png. This would be perfectSpot on! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 That's exactly what is going to happen in my opinion. The progression we are in right now leads to that map in DJF.I found it interesting that he's got both 89-90 and 00-01. I know you were keen on 00-01, and I have very fond memories of the bliz in NMI on day two of deer camp 11/16/89, which also delivered enough snow to SEMI to run my snowmobile a few days later when I got back home. What I didn't remember is the 71 degs on the 13th! And it was 82 a few days before the freak snow on 10/19/89! That autumn was a memorable one for myself. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 By November, we should be getting the final Winter Outlooks coming in. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 By November, we should be getting the final Winter Outlooks coming in.Yeah, a lot of the video makers state that. Hopefully, we'll have a better feel on whether La Nina or La Nada is most likely. Something half-way between May actually be best for you and I 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Yeah, a lot of the video makers state that. Hopefully, we'll have a better feel on whether La Nina or La Nada is most likely. Something half-way between May actually be best for you and IYup, I am more confident this year than last year about a more active, colder Winter. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Yeah, a lot of the video makers state that. Hopefully, we'll have a better feel on whether La Nina or La Nada is most likely. Something half-way between May actually be best for you and IHere is a list of weak La Nina years since 1950 and total seasonal snow fall at Grand Rapids1. 1954/55 78.3”2. 1964/65 101.4”3. 1971/72 79.8”4. 1974/75 68.9”5. 1983/84 71.4”6. 1984/85 69.6”7. 2000/01 98.1”8. 2005/06 69.2”9. 2008/09 104.4”10. 2016/17 60.1”The long term mean for Grand Rapids is 75.7” the range (since 1950) is between 35.9: and 116.0” and the average of the weak La Nina years is 80.1” with a range between 60.1 and 104.4”And here is a list of neutral years (as best as I can tell)1. 1959/60 90.7”2. 1960/61 87.9”3. 1962/63 89.7”4. 1966/67 91.8”5. 1967/68 55.1”6. 1978/79 96.0”7. 1980/81 51.5”8. 1981/82 74.5”9. 1985/86 79.1”10. 1989/90 89.8”11. 1990/91 60.6”12. 1992/93 65.3”13. 1993/94 76.6”14. 1996/95 79.7”15. 2001/02 105.2”16. 2003/04 74.0”17. 2012/13 66.0”18. 2013/14 116.0”In the neutral years the range has been between 60.6” and 116.0” and the average is 72.3” So bottom line is that based on a weak La Nina or neutral West Michigan has a good chance of seeing snow fall in the average to above average with a range of 51.5” to 116.0” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
possum Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 can anyone give a regional run down of the 88-89 winter. its the year it stayed bitter cold here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 8, 2017 Report Share Posted October 8, 2017 Here is a list of weak La Nina years since 1950 and total seasonal snow fall at Grand Rapids1. 1954/55 78.3”2. 1964/65 101.4”3. 1971/72 79.8”4. 1974/75 68.9”5. 1983/84 71.4”6. 1984/85 69.6”7. 2000/01 98.1”8. 2005/06 69.2”9. 2008/09 104.4”10. 2016/17 60.1”The long term mean for Grand Rapids is 75.7” the range (since 1950) is between 35.9: and 116.0” and the average of the weak La Nina years is 80.1” with a range between 60.1 and 104.4”And here is a list of neutral years (as best as I can tell)1. 1959/60 90.7”2. 1960/61 87.9”3. 1962/63 89.7”4. 1966/67 91.8”5. 1967/68 55.1”6. 1978/79 96.0”7. 1980/81 51.5”8. 1981/82 74.5”9. 1985/86 79.1”10. 1989/90 89.8”11. 1990/91 60.6”12. 1992/93 65.3”13. 1993/94 76.6”14. 1996/95 79.7”15. 2001/02 105.2”16. 2003/04 74.0”17. 2012/13 66.0”18. 2013/14 116.0”In the neutral years the range has been between 60.6” and 116.0” and the average is 72.3” So bottom line is that based on a weak La Nina or neutral West Michigan has a good chance of seeing snow fall in the average to above average with a range of 51.5” to 116.0” Nice work!! At a glance I'm thinking the edge goes to neutral winters as I suspected tbh. Now, while there's not a lot of real duds in there, GR & Marshall share many good years but not all. 2001-02 is a classic example where the SW flow LES gave that area a great season and did little down here. Last winter featured a lot of WNW LES events which is ideal here, and a major reason I avoided a sub-par winter. Take away those two wks in Dec and I had a 25" season, half my avg. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 8, 2017 Report Share Posted October 8, 2017 Here is a list of weak La Nina years since 1950 and total seasonal snow fall at Grand Rapids1. 1954/55 78.3”2. 1964/65 101.4”3. 1971/72 79.8”4. 1974/75 68.9”5. 1983/84 71.4”6. 1984/85 69.6”7. 2000/01 98.1”8. 2005/06 69.2”9. 2008/09 104.4”10. 2016/17 60.1”The long term mean for Grand Rapids is 75.7” the range (since 1950) is between 35.9: and 116.0” and the average of the weak La Nina years is 80.1” with a range between 60.1 and 104.4”And here is a list of neutral years (as best as I can tell)1. 1959/60 90.7”2. 1960/61 87.9”3. 1962/63 89.7”4. 1966/67 91.8”5. 1967/68 55.1”6. 1978/79 96.0”7. 1980/81 51.5”8. 1981/82 74.5”9. 1985/86 79.1”10. 1989/90 89.8”11. 1990/91 60.6”12. 1992/93 65.3”13. 1993/94 76.6”14. 1996/95 79.7”15. 2001/02 105.2”16. 2003/04 74.0”17. 2012/13 66.0”18. 2013/14 116.0”In the neutral years the range has been between 60.6” and 116.0” and the average is 72.3” So bottom line is that based on a weak La Nina or neutral West Michigan has a good chance of seeing snow fall in the average to above average with a range of 51.5” to 116.0” Nice work!! At a glance I'm thinking the edge goes to neutral winters as I suspected tbh. Now, while there's not a lot of real duds in there, GR & Marshall share many good years but not all. 2001-02 is a classic example where the SW flow LES gave that area a great season and did little down here. Last winter featured a lot of WNW LES events which is ideal here, and a major reason I avoided a sub-par winter. Take away those two wks in Dec and I had a 25" season, half my avg. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 8, 2017 Report Share Posted October 8, 2017 October will end up with above normal temps in SEMI. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 8, 2017 Report Share Posted October 8, 2017 October will end up with above normal temps in SEMI. That's ok, per BAMwx, it follows the AAM perfectly. Tbh, not sure if that's a model or some tele-connection? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 8, 2017 That's ok, per BAMwx, it follows the AAM perfectly. Tbh, not sure if that's a model or some tele-connection?Atmospheric Angular Momentum... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 8, 2017 Report Share Posted October 8, 2017 That's ok, per BAMwx, it follows the AAM perfectly. Tbh, not sure if that's a model or some tele-connection?That's fine with me. I usually like warm Octobers. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted October 8, 2017 Report Share Posted October 8, 2017 Will the Midwest see a very cold and snowy winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 8, 2017 Here's an update on the expansion of the Northern Hemisphere snow cover as Russia/Siberia is onto a fast start in the snow advance dept... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif Northern Hemisphere... Eurasia... 00z GFS showing a lot of snow expanding westward in the coming 10 days... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 8, 2017 Report Share Posted October 8, 2017 Atmospheric Angular Momentum...Thx for breaking down the acronym though I'm still not clear what that is/means exactly, but I'll check it out when I get a moment. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 8, 2017 Report Share Posted October 8, 2017 can anyone give a regional run down of the 88-89 winter. its the year it stayed bitter cold hereI can remember 88-89 from an Okie standpoint. It was a really harsh winter here. I remember it distinctively being the first time in my life saw the news talking about subzero temps in Oklahoma City while reporting during a ground blizzard. A large, heavy snowfall ended the winter in March with over 18-24 inches in 24 hours of wet heavy snow over eastern Oklahoma. One of the most varied and extreme winters I've known about. I'm going to assume that it was pretty insane further north and west of here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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