PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah, this is gonna be better.

Good run so far!

[GHweatherChris]

I am on hold right now waiting to dispatch on a burglary alarm.

Also, anything past the initialization of the models can be trusted, and that can't be trusted much at all 

Edited December 16, 2022 by GHweatherChris

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Doinko]

Wow

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is now the turning point. Gfs is just wrong.

Yep.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Wednesday at 10 a.m. 

Looks like an I-90 corridor special.

 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Bet this keeps trending south.

I think it will end up being a really decent snow event from PDX to up here. These types of set ups where NW Oregon gets hit hard which is the direction I think this is going are usually pretty good for the south sound when we get on the north side of the precip shield. 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

There she is. Beautiful changes!

[Doinko]

-13c 850s down to Portland

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wow

Omg. January 2004 redux?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Wednesday at 10 a.m. 

Looks like an I-90 corridor special.

 

Bellingham gets a donut.

[Randyc321]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The Tuesday system...

 

@MossMan ain't gonna like this.

[TT-SEA]

The colder air mass holds the overrunning precip much farther west by late Wednesday...

 

[Cloud]

Drunkle is gonna cave.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Bellingham gets a donut.

Not great down here for snow. But I think it’s going to keep trending. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

@MossMan ain't gonna like this.

Nobody with good taste likes it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The colder air mass holds the overrunning precip much farther west by late Wednesday...

 

Honestly I love this. 

[Doinko]

Seattle stays in the low-mid 20s all day Wednesday. Subfreezing highs down to Portland

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Bellingham gets a donut.

Guessing big Fraser outflows

WB the bed on me.  Anyone able to get the wind map?

[Hawksfan2008]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Wednesday at 10 a.m. 

Looks like an I-90 corridor special.

 

I’ve seen enough. Time to follow tradition and purchase a nice whiskey for the winter weather.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Nobody with good taste likes it.

This could actually set up the screw zone right where it was for the last series of snow events.    

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This a powerful airmass, a lot of times everything gets surprised when the models' realize this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My boss keeps calling on me. Sorry the euro… I mean my kids are distracting me. 

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

00z



Much better on this run

It looks like all models except the GFS have moved away from having that low develop to the north by BC. Very good and a complete game changer for keeping the cold and snow chances around. Even the NAVGEM has taken away that pesky BC low. GFS is pretty much on its own. The NAM still hints at a bit of northern energy but hopefully that gets better. 

The ICON/GEM/NAVGEM take this low way south into OR/CA border or even further south. Euro brings it into OR/WA border. Still a pretty wide range of outcomes there but this is all way better than having cyclogenesis way north. 

[Cloud]

GEM and Euro are in LOCK-STEP at this range. 

 

[Front Ranger]

Big step in the right direction. Not as cold or as fast as the GEM/ICON, but couldn't ask for much more at this point.

[Doinko]

Cold east wind sets up

[TT-SEA]

Question now is... does will the ECMWF continue the southward trend on future runs?   Until is stops moving you can't really be sure.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Guessing big Fraser outflows

WB the bed on me.  Anyone able to get the wind map?

That’s a typical snowfail mode up this way. At least it shows metro Vancouver scoring better for the initial event on Sunday.

[Doinko]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Question now is... does will the ECMWF continue the southward trend on future runs?   Until is stops moving you can't really be sure.  

South means colder for everyone!

[Gummy]

Have to think the Ens will not be as far south with the low. It will probably show the central sound getting hammered again.

Very good run so far, and it keeps a nice portion of Oregon in the game.

[TT-SEA]

Interesting comparion using the Tropical Tibits previous runs feature... the 12Z ECMWF run this morning is actually quite bit east of the 12Z run from Wednesday morning.    Its just going back to previous solutions.

12Z run today on top and 12Z run from Wednesday on the bottom... the run from Wednesday looks even better.  

[Cloud]

[Kolk1604]

^$^&$&$&$*$##$$#$# 

Tuesday 12z EMCWF Part 2 (This is Thursday 10am) 

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Interesting comparion using the Tropical Tibits previous runs feature... the 12Z ECMWF run this morning is actually quite bit east of the 12Z run from Wednesday morning.    Its just going back to previous solutions.

12Z run today on top and 12Z run from Wednesday on the bottom... the run from Wednesday looks even better.  

It looks like the trough digs deeper and then slides east compared to that 12z run

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This could actually set up the screw zone right where it was for the last series of snow events.    

If the beginning of the run starts off like this…and cold air gets entrenched it’s inevitable that up north will eventually score during the tail end too. Too many details and potential surprises to be worried up north I bet they end up just fine in the end. 

[TT-SEA]

Thursday afternoon per 12Z ECMWF... that trough just rockets eastward but the precip from the west has not really arrived yet. 

[Doinko]

Portland is in the teens all day Thursday with a strong east wind. Wow

And some zr