PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Cloud]

[TT-SEA]

EPS and control run continued southward trend!

[Poulsbo Snowman]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Cold will be trapped at the surface but snow is almost impossible with 850mb temps well above freezing.     At least that is what this run shows for Friday morning.    

Oh, oh.  Wouldn't want to be where you are or at Hood Canal during this transition.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

***** IT! I AM 100% ONBOARD.  I BELIEVE, I BELIEVE.

Yep.   Time to get on board.   

[Cloud]

Colder runs ahead to the finish line!

[Darrington Troll]

There is so much mental instability on this forum, I am in love

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Oh, oh.  Wouldn't want to be where you are or at Hood Canal during this transition.

Might be rough.   Best hope is precip is generally light which is what ECMWF shows.   

[Meatyorologist]

ICON has highs in the mid 20s on Wednesday for you, @TigerWoodsLibido

[Deweydog]

27 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'd like to say hi Mark Nelson.

If you’re talking about Mark Nelsen, he’s a really nice guy.

[MossMan]

I thought February 2019 was the biggest last minute change for the great after most hope was lost…This one might be the new winner in that regard! Fun! 

[Meatyorologist]

Alright. I'm in on this. Ready to have my heart broken.

[Snownerd3000]

13 minutes ago, Cloud said:

HEYOOOOOOOOOOOOO

 

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

SE ridging and that little feature in the SE goes away pretty quickly 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Colder runs ahead to the finish line!

Seems to be a recurring pattern.   Crazy good runs... then major pullback... then all comes back again.   

You would think we would learn.   Randy tries to tell us every time. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Darrington Troll said:

There is so much mental instability on this forum, I am in love

You are going to get buried out there! 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Colder runs ahead to the finish line!

And wetter!! As in SNOWIER!!! C’MON!! 

Edited December 16, 2022 by MossMan

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Guys this is BONKERS,

[Mid Valley Duck]

The low locations map doesn't show up well because the Tuesday surface low is very weak but if you take a member by member view you can see those are all over the place still. The control has it the same spot as the op.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, MossMan said:

I thought February 2019 was the biggest last minute change for the great after most hope was lost…This one might be the new winner in that regard! Fun! 

The implications of this are huge, too... Difference is, this airmass is leagues better than anything that event had to offer, and it's a much more tenuous setup. February switched from spotty flurries and a warmup to nice climo-bounded snowstorm and a few subfreezing days.

If all goes right this time, we are talking a switch from a couple days around freezing with a skiff of PSCZ slush to multiple days below freezing, a few struggling to reach 20F, and multiple potentially high-impact snow events. MASSIVE shift within 90 hours... That is, if it sticks.

[Cloud]

Good! Through next week. 

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seems to be a recurring pattern.   Crazy good runs... then major pullback... then all comes back again.   

You would think we would learn.   Randy tries to tell us every time. 

Thus, the "mental instability" 

[Doinko]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

The implications of this are huge, too... Difference is, this airmass is leagues better than anything that event had to offer, and it's a much more tenuous setup. February switched from spotty flurries and a warmup to nice climo-bounded snowstorm and a few subfreezing days.

If all goes right this time, we are talking a switch from a couple days around freezing with a skiff of PSCZ slush to multiple days below freezing, a few struggling to reach 20F, and multiple potentially high-impact snow events. MASSIVE shift within 90 hours... That is, if it sticks.

Really liking the strong and cold east wind some of the models are showing. Could keep Portland very cold

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

If you’re talking about Mark Nelsen, he’s a really nice guy.

I'm not afraid to admit my spelling skills are complete crap.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm not afraid to admit my spelling skills are complete crap.

And i appreciate not getting teased about it on here anymore lol.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seems to be a recurring pattern.   Crazy good runs... then major pullback... then all comes back again.   

You would think we would learn.   Randy tries to tell us every time. 

I was actually waiting for the rebound from the pullback. Never bought into the doom and gloom GFS suites, at least initially. Started giving up hope yesterday, since I figured such a major turnaround could not happen at this range, with our modern computing. Guess I was wrong, in a pretty substantial way.

[Slushy Inch]

58 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Wednesday at 10 a.m. 

Looks like an I-90 corridor special.

 

But I bet, and hope PSCZ overperforms for King/Snohomish line.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm not afraid to admit my spelling skills are complete crap.

They’re both right, his is just the weird one. Now if you’d gone with Nelsun…

[Cloud]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Alright. I'm in on this. Ready to have my heart broken.

Shouldn't we all be numb to it by now? It's like being mentally cheated on. 

[Seattle]

What're the fox weather group spellings? Something like MOHRK NELSOHN

[Slushy Inch]

15 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Very good trend

Everyone in WA should be happy this looks like a 5–6-day cold period! With snow cover!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11:12 AM PST Friday 16 December 2022
Special weather statement in effect for:

• Metro Vancouver - central including the City of Vancouver Burnaby and New Westminster
• Metro Vancouver - North Shore including West Vancouver and North Vancouver
• Metro Vancouver - northeast including Coquitlam and Maple Ridge
• Metro Vancouver - southeast including Surrey and Langley
• Metro Vancouver - southwest including Richmond and Delta

Wintry mix of precipitation followed by strong outflow winds, cold temperatures and wind chill this weekend.

Where: Metro Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Howe Sound, Whistler, and Sea to Sky - Squamish to Whistler.

Hazard: Prepare for potentially challenging travel conditions. Check water pipes during the cold period.

Remarks: A series of weather systems will bring periods of snow to the south coast this weekend.

On Saturday, precipitation will fall as light flurries or showers depending on temperature and elevation. In general, 2 up to 4 cm of snow can be expected across the region. For Metro Vancouver, snowfall accumulations are mainly expected over higher terrain.

Saturday night through Sunday, an arctic front from interior BC will move across the south coast and bring a period of heavy flurries to the region. Currently, there is still large uncertainty associated with the timing of this system. Recent model guidance indicates total snowfall amounts near 10 cm are likely for the Fraser Valley, Howe Sound, Whistler, and the Sea to Sky highway. Near 5 cm of snow are possible over Metro Vancouver.

With the passage of the arctic front on Sunday, strong outflow winds will bring in cold arctic air and temperatures falling 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal average.

Please stay tuned to the updated weather forecast and warnings this weekend, and be prepared for changing road conditions and cold temperatures.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #BCStorm.

[yellowstone]

4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

But I bet, and hope PSCZ overperforms for King/Snohomish line.

I’m guessing everyone from Tacoma to Everett will end up pretty happy. Especially those of us who have been on the periphery of the events so far. 

[Cloud]

Looking at the EPS in the short term, I think the trend is very clear and it could potentially be colder. Hard to discount the short range improvements.

[Slushy Inch]

Wow on the snow totals increase!

[Poulsbo Snowman]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm not afraid to admit my spelling skills are complete crap.

Ah, not everyone can spel.  You're good at analyzing this stuff though.  Don't worry about the little stuff.

[Slushy Inch]

Coldest day is Wednesday, highs in the 20s.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[SnowPlz]

We should be getting winter weather warnings at about 11 pm on Tuesday 

[TacomaWx]

Could end up like January 2012. Jim will be here soon always happy to see him be excited I don’t think anyone gets more fired up for this than him. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Ah, not everyone can spel.  You're good at analyzing this stuff though.  Don't worry about the little stuff.

It's on my bucket list to get some help with it when i have the time.

[Nov1985]

We almost got that upper level low following the perfect path down the BC coast with the 12z Euro run. But it gets crushed halfway down from Alaska.