PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Timmy]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I feel like the GFS has changed the least in the last 36 hours, though...

That run to run change at hour 102 is just so extreme. But I see what you mean.

[Meatyorologist]

GFS has wayyy too much vorticity advection on the NW flank of the PV lobe. If it's due to friction, that may be a reasonable outcome, actually. We'll find out soon enough in the next 24 hours as our Arctic front continues to advance through BC.

[Meatyorologist]

I mean, what do you even say to this. This is a 60hr forecast. Like, what??

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend) Do I have to keep posting this nauseating run?

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I feel like the GFS has changed the least in the last 36 hours, though...

Yeah, as much as we want it to be wrong we can't discount the possibility that the northern energy develops and puts an end to our fun in a hurry. I think the GFS is still outnumbered with this but we can't ignore its consistency. 

I think the GEM will hold steady though and hopefully the Euro and UKMET are still good.

[Cold Snap]

I feel like it’s never been this hard to get the GFS on board with cold and snow.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 5 (4-run trend) Do I have to keep posting this nauseating run?

No.. take a break. Wait for the euro. 

[Kolk1604]

GEM has snow Sunday/Monday 

[Kolk1604]

[Meatyorologist]

The details in the PNW are flailing, but in truth the GFS has been slowly caving to the Euro over the last 24+ hours. SE ridge has grown stronger and further west. Our Pacific block has grown stronger. -NAO has dived south, and our PV has consolidated and closed the distance gap.

If these trends continue, a flip to a Euro-like solution is inevitable. It may occur as soon as the 06z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is pretty much the same as the 12z through hour 120. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

I am officially not onboard if we lose the JMA.  The JMA is the best model for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

GEM Day 4

[Timmy]

Jma looks a lot more like the gem than the gfs. I don’t know how to read that crazy map it puts out well, but it’s much better than the gfs.

[Gradient Keeper]

The differences between the GFS and GEM at just HR 36 is bizarre. What the heck...

[Kolk1604]

Temps dropping, snow increasing 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gem is golden!

[Perturbed Member]

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM is pretty much the same as the 12z through hour 120. 

Yes, the GEM doesn't develop that low pressure by Haida Gwaii.  

[Timmy]

Holy GEM! The battle continues. Unreal

[FroYoBro]

GEM looks cold af.

Insanely different from the GFS on Wednesday. 

Edited December 17, 2022 by FroYoBro

[mtep]

6 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

GEM has snow Sunday/Monday 

Is that convergence over whatcom county? Sexy. 

[Gradient Keeper]

GEM Day 5 850s

[Kolk1604]

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

I love you Canada 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

GEM Day 5 850s

Holy Shiite 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Temps dropping, snow increasing 

00z GEM not backing down.

[Kolk1604]

[Gradient Keeper]

Unreal. This is the craziest model riding in recent memory.

[Cloud]

The GFS is trolling. 

[Timmy]

The gem looks like it’s about to unleash the ice storm of the century, 23f out to seaside 

[Timmy]

There it is

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anyone with a WB map of the coldest GEM 850s? I want to compare to the 12z. 

[lowlandsnow]

Temps in the teens in the afternoon

[Perturbed Member]

00z GEM vs 12z UKMET and Euro

Team cold

 

Compare to 00z GFS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

The gem looks like it’s about to unleash the ice storm of the century, 23f out to seaside 

BRUTAL

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Unreal. This is the craziest model riding in recent memory.

Ever. I have never in my life seen anything like this. Absolutely unfathomable.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Anyone with a WB map of the coldest GEM 850s? I want to compare to the 12z. 

Wednesday 1pm. 

[Timmy]

All in all Thursday- Friday look interesting, less scouring of the low level cold. Less precip as well compared to the 12z

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

There it is

With a PDX-DLS of -12mb. Could you imagine the destruction with 50-60mph east winds and ice accumulating on power lines, trees, etc.