PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Gross spring come Saturday evening 

Tiger gets a 50-burger for Christmas!

This is actually significantly cooler than modelled at this time 36 hours ago.

[TacomaWx]

38 here…pretty good chance we won’t hit 40 degrees again until Thursday night  or Friday. Our 5th sub 40 high this season today. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Terreboner said:

Pretty similar but a lot of the bands were just north of you.  Of course I don't have to tell you the difference between Woodinville and Redmond.  Microclimates are so much fun.

They really are, PSCZ is my favorite weather feature.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

24 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Yes!!! More! though this would be very disruptive! 

Jim is not going to like that warm nose/sleet into his area while Fed Way is still getting snow. My MIL is not going to like it either if it ends up zr instead of sleet.

[snow_wizard]

It certainly appears the long streak of sub 50 highs may end after the cold wave.  Interestingly brief temp spikes and AR events are typical in this type of winter at some point.  Cold can easily come right back.

[Terreboner]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

They really are, PSCZ is my favorite weather feature.

I lived at 230' in Lake Stevens and one time I had 6 inches and sea level had sleet.  

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

Pretty similar but a lot of the bands were just north of you.  Of course I don't have to tell you the difference between Woodinville and Redmond.  Microclimates are so much fun.

Yes... often the PSCZ stalls just north of me. Or is pushed east. But I get hit a decent amount of the time.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Thanks, @Kolk1604.  With Tim not posting I was wondering when the warm up would be posted.

Fell asleep.

Looks like the I-90 corridor might get close to a foot snow by Wednesday... 3 or 4 inches tomorrow night and 6-8 inches on Tuesday.    Then no melting through Friday.   Should be a beautiful week in King County.

Also... at the 500mb level it seems like every ECMWF run goes more towards what the GFS was showing.   I haven't read through what I missed the last couple of hours but that seems pretty obvious.   The GFS is not great with surface details but it didn't do that bad at the 500mb level.   Something to keep in my mind in the future.   The upgrade was probably not a total failure but they might have overcompensated with surface details.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Jim is not going to like that warm nose/sleet into his area while Fed Way is still getting snow. My MIL is not going to like it either if it ends up zr instead of sleet.

I don't care about that end event.  Too much good stuff before it.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Tiger gets a 50-burger for Christmas!

This is actually significantly cooler than modelled at this time 36 hours ago.

The only silver lining I can find for this is that in 1950, there was a big warm up after the first cold wave before plunging into the deep freeze.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Terreboner said:

I lived at 230' in Lake Stevens and one time I had 6 inches and sea level had sleet.  

So, it was melting into rain and freezing into sleet within 200 feet??

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Does the inevitable warmup keep on getting pushed back?

 

 

[thickhog]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

Pretty similar but a lot of the bands were just north of you.  Of course I don't have to tell you the difference between Woodinville and Redmond.  Microclimates are so much fun.

Lived up on the hill in Woodinville for six years. Very good spot for snow.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Terreboner said:

I lived at 230' in Lake Stevens and one time I had 6 inches and sea level had sleet.  

I remember Lake Stevens doing really well one time when I was living in Woodinville.  I drove up there and was jealous.  Had to have been somewhere in the 1992 to 1995 time frame I think.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yep, ain't easy being a Portland area weanie the past few years. Didn't you get at least a few inches this season being on the west hills though?

Eventually we will get a 1/2004, 12/2008, 2/2014 or 1/2017 caliber event again....

Let’s keep an eye on the period around new years. Maybe once we go through this reset things will start to favor areas further south. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

So, it was melting into rain and freezing into sleet within 200 feet??

Cold ground, a 200' warm layer.  Probably freezing rain but sleet was mixed in too.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

The only silver lining I can find for this is that in 1950, there was a big warm up after the first cold wave before plunging into the deep freeze.

It happens all the time in good winters.  I mean to say most good winters have one or two rounds of that.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It certainly appears the long streak of sub 50 highs may end after the cold wave.  Interestingly brief temp spikes and AR events are typical in this type of winter at some point.  Cold can easily come right back.

I cannot think of a single winter without a Pineapple Express that brings mild rain and temperatures in the 50’s. Such things are just part of our climate. (And more so than arctic blasts; Pineapple Expresses happen more frequently.)

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Does the inevitable warmup keep on getting pushed back?

 

 

Yes

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Let’s keep an eye on the period around new years. Maybe once we go through this reset things will start to favor areas further south. 

Could well be.  Deeper into the winter we might see things get more suppressed.  

[Parrot]

5 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

I lived at 230' in Lake Stevens and one time I had 6 inches and sea level had sleet.  

With November's event, i was at 80' in Edmonds, got nothing. 3 blocks up had 2" and 3 blocks up from that had 4". Elevation matters lol

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I don't care about that end event.  Too much good stuff before it.

Man has his priorities figured out

[Terreboner]

Name the song.  Reminds me a lot of you guys, lol.

 

Foolish heart, hear me calling
Stop before you start falling
Foolish heart, heed my warning
You've been wrong before
Don't be wrong anymore

Foolish heart
Foolish, foolish heart
You've been wrong before

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I don't care about that end event.  Too much good stuff before it.

I could care less about what happens after Thursday. Really hope Tomorrow night can start with a bang. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, thickhog said:

Lived up on the hill in Woodinville for six years. Very good spot for snow.

Same, but for 13 years, at 500 feet, off Woodinville Duvall Road. Very good location for snow.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

24 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 7

Ooh, we all get a Hawaiian Christmas. Would prefer that it was in Hawai'i than in WA, however.

[Kolk1604]

[Christensen87]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

Name the song.  Reminds me a lot of you guys, lol.

 

Foolish heart, hear me calling
Stop before you start falling
Foolish heart, heed my warning
You've been wrong before
Don't be wrong anymore

Foolish heart
Foolish, foolish heart
You've been wrong before

Steve Perry! 

[TT-SEA]

This is the 4th or 5th ECMWF run in a row to shift northward and less deep for the Tuesday time frame.    Of course that means more snow for the Seattle area.   But in general the ECMWF was way too aggressive and has been correcting since.

[Nov1985]

ECMWF keeps moderating slightly as a given day gets closer, especially 70 to 80 hrs out. Tuesday temps up slightly with this run. Tomorrow night we'll probably see moderation of those Wed temps. And then again Mon night for Thu temps. Still going to be cold, but probably not THAT cold IMO.

[Meatyorologist]

Kind of nice seeing some real winter weather chances before February again.

I wa so used to recent years that I had the passing thought that "Too bad winter is almost over", then I realized we haven't even reached the solstice yet.

[Terreboner]

Just now, Christensen87 said:

Steve Perry! 

He's the man.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Parrot said:

With November's event, i was at 80' in Edmonds, got nothing. 3 blocks up had 2" and 3 blocks up from that had 4". Elevation matters lol

Late November-Early December there was like 1”-2” total at sea level over the course of that week here in Tacoma. Was 5” here and probably closer to 6 or 7 inches a couple miles south away from the water 100’ higher in elevation. 

[snow_wizard]

I'm also thankful precip amounts are light during the potential ice window.  Looks like this will be very enjoyable overall if this run is correct.

[Requiem]

An ice storm seems the likeliest for PDX at this current moment-- the cold layer could trend more favorably but I can't see any significant snowfall 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Quite the bump up isn't it?

[Kolk1604]

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Late November-Early December there was like 1”-2” total at sea level over the course of that week here in Tacoma. Was 5” here and probably closer to 6 or 7 inches a couple miles south away from the water 100’ higher in elevation. 

Similar deal here. Around an inch or so on the ground at my place. 2-3" at my friend's house on Maple Leaf hill around 400'.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm also thankful precip amounts are light during the potential ice window.  Looks like this will be very enjoyable overall if this run is correct.

Ice is one of those things though where even a tiny amount causes huge issues.