PNW December 2022 - Part II

[joelgombiner]

Getting some light snow pellets. Dark clouds to the north and east. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Wow!

[snow_wizard]

Tuesday-ish is looking like a potential big prize for some places.

[Jean Ralphios Ghost]

In Bothell right now and it's finally snowing hard!  Tiny flakes but lots of them.  Starting to cover the beds and cold cars.

[Hawksfan2008]

Let’s go!! 

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wow!

 

[Gummy]

4 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Drop it south 

From a selfish standpoint I would almost prefer that. Stronger CAA for a better shot at a nice overrunning event later in the week, as I am off of work on Friday.  Dump a few inches on Portland with the first system.

[Front Ranger]

1068 high in western MT. Pretty sure I've never seen that within 100 hours.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

The CZ seems to be staying to the north and east of Seattle for now.

[snow_wizard]

I the mean time tonight is full of potential for the East Puget Sound Lowlands.

[TonyP]

Pretty big Friday snow/ice storm being shown on the 18z gfs. Cold is sticking around longer than previous runs it seems.

[WildrootParable]

Been keeping an eye on the Bremerton airport stats (only a few miles away) and the dewpoint is currently 28 degrees over there. 

After a few hours of uninterrupted blue sky and sunshine we've got clouds moving in now. The excitement builds!

[The Winter Warlock]

Convergence up north.

[TacomaWx]

We’ve had some ice pellets but obviously too warm for anything too crazy yet down here. 

[Skagit Weather]

17 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

There used to be a Baskin Robbins inside a Subway on Section St in Mt Vernon. I used to go there a few times when I worked up at the Panera in Burlington. Ah so you're probably more like La Conner area. Makes sense. I used to live in Stanwood so MV was always Mt Vernon for me but some say Marysville. I don't miss driving on Pioneer in the snow though.

Ahhh...makes sense. I think of MV as Maple Valley, but that's just because there's prominent posters on here from there. Yeah, I'm north of La Conner in the Bay View area.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Wow, even the Olympic rain shadow doesn't do too bad on that one.

I am doughnutted pretty badly here. 

[Kolk1604]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wow!

I think the snowmap is hoping for temps where there suppose to be - in the low 30s 

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS

Things are continuing to trend better for the overrunning. The entire event looks to pretty much be right between snow and sleet. Look just how close that sounding is to being entirely snow. The trend is our friend right now.

This is the first time the GFS actually shows accumulating snow for PDX for this overrunning event.

[North_County]

1 hour ago, North_County said:

Ended up with a generous inch before the snow stopped (although accurate snow measurements are impossible here when the wind is blowing like this). Just frigid NE wind for now. Looks to be some juiciness heading this way if the radar is to be believed. Will be interesting to see if it can overcome the outflow.

Outflow appears to be winning quite handily. But at least I get this.....

[Timmy]

9 minutes ago, TonyP said:

Now I’m no meteorologist but I’ve gleaned through my time on the forum is that generally the Kutchera could be used when situations are ideal. If temps/dew points are marginal the rate maybe far lower that 10:1, conversely, if it’s incredibly cold and the precipitation is there the rate can exceed 10:1. All of this is to say, you can use the kutchera, but take it’s outputs with a grain of salt.

Kuchera is overused and rarely comes to fruition.

[TonyP]

Is is even possible for 850’s of -5-8 to support surface temps in the 20’s? Seems like a really weird output. 

[TonyP]

Gross 

[Seattle]

Light flurries here in Ravenna/Roosevelt! Convergence starting to drop south into the city now.

[NWbyNW]

36F.  It has been snowing since 11AM here varying from big flakes to small flakes.  Blustery and still snowing, but nothing sticking at sea level.  Supposed to get down to 26F tonight.  We'll see what happens. 

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, TonyP said:

Is is even possible for 850’s of -5-8 to support surface temps in the 20’s? Seems like a really weird output. 

Cold air trapped at the surface. That's how you get freezing rain

 

[TonyP]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Cold air trapped at the surface. That's how you get freezing rain

 

Makes sense — appreciate the explanation.

[MikeInEverett]

HEAVY Snow in Monroe. Sticking to everything. We decided to drive east instead haha

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, TonyP said:

Is is even possible for 850’s of -5-8 to support surface temps in the 20’s? Seems like a really weird output. 

In this case yes.  Insane low level cold in play.

[Cold Snap]

Temperature dropped 3 degrees while walking the dog along with a shift to north winds. Snow is starting to pick up here. Currently 35.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, TonyP said:

Makes sense — appreciate the explanation.

Or as everyone else here calls it, fake cold. 

The surface in 20s can support snow, but the upper levels are too warm and can't. You freeze your nuts off with nothing to show for it 

[MikeInEverett]

Don’t even want to look at the radar to see if the CZ is slipping away from home. Don’t want it to ruin my mood

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Cold air trapped at the surface. That's how you get freezing rain

 

The GFS number actually show the Thursday night stuff as snow now.  That would be great.

[runninthruda206]

If this doesn’t fill in over Fremont

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MillCreekMike said:

Don’t even want to look at the radar to see if the CZ is slipping away from home. Don’t want it to ruin my mood

I'm like that too.   Once it gets going good I don't look until it really slows down.

[MikeInEverett]

Monroe

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

1 minute ago, runninthruda206 said:

If this doesn’t fill in over Fremont

I feel the same way about West Seattle. Just 10 more miles south...

[WeatherGeek2022]

coming down finally south of tacoma, even got a little kick of wind going with it too.

[joelgombiner]

Here comes the north wind! 

[SnowPlz]

2 minutes ago, runninthruda206 said:

If this doesn’t fill in over Fremont

Just started snowing by Fremont coffee! 

[snow_wizard]

Arctic front making good progress now.  Well into King County.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS number actually show the Thursday night stuff as snow now.  That would be great.

It did look like, starting with last nights runs, that the warming of the 850s would be pushed back. I'm curious if that trend will continue once we get closer.