PNW December 2022 - Part II

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

EPS also looks promising. Aka not mega suck

And being it goes into January not sucking is BIG news.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Up to 29.5º in Everett. No signs of melting and now there is a touch of glaze on the limbs of trees.

[Omegaraptor]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting. It does seem like at worst by New Year's temps will cool back down to around normal. I think it's probably too soon to assume January will suck. My feeling is January will be decent, with temps coming in about normal for the month, maybe even a little below normal. I am afraid from PDX south the cold anomaly will get totally wiped out and December will end up around average. Which is fine, it's overall been a chilly December and we all scored sub-freezing highs, following a very cold November. No complaints. 

I was afraid we were going to go on a runaway blowtorch after Christmas but it’s looking like it only lasts a couple days. After the 27th-28th 850s look average to slightly cool. Should quickly replace any snowpack lost in those couple days.

[BLI snowman]

Have seemingly lucked out here so far. Roads are slick but drivable, as the majority of the sleet is rather compacted and there isn't too much ice over it yet. Having virtually all of Round 1 fall as sleet was a blessing. Precip looks rather anemic still until tomorrow morning, by which point we'll definitely be flirting with the big 32 away from the gorge.

Edited December 23, 2022 by BLI snowman

[NWbyNW]

Happy Christmas Eve Eve to everyone.    <---Christmas Island Flag. 

No sleet or ice rain where I was.  Just snow.  I'm thankfully done working and not leaving the house today, just relaxing.  Avoiding all the nutso things.  Few friends said they had some frozen rain in Kirkland, Duvall, and elsewhere.  None said it seemed that bad though... so who knows? 

Things are quite spotty around the region with the bulk of the storm having done its business.

[joelgombiner]

These are the surge rates Uber is paying drivers right now . The Prius fleet has been brought to its knees. 

 

[snow_wizard]

The 12z ECMWF actually has the month ending with slightly below normal temps, and more freezing mins for SEA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

And being it goes into January not sucking is BIG news.

Yeah I've noticed from an 850mb perspective the ensemble means are essentially climo once we get to the 28th. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I was afraid we were going to go on a runaway blowtorch after Christmas but it’s looking like it only lasts a couple days. After the 27th-28th 850s look average to slightly cool. Should quickly replace any snowpack lost in those couple days.

Yep, and any clear nights will end up with sub-freezing lows in the Western lowlands. 

[MossMan]

Pouring rain and 35 degrees. The ground is still frozen solid however, got the plow and did the steep driveway portion since it was glazed ice. With enough passes I was able to break up some of the ice (the tire chains helped as well) so it should start thawing quickly now. My wife informed me we need to go out and not an option since she still has some stocking stuffers to get. Looks like the county dumped enough sand/salt down to choke a horse so the main roads should be pretty good now. At least passable. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Have seemingly lucked out here so far. Roads are slick but drivable, as the majority of the sleet is rather compacted and there isn't too much ice over it yet. Having virtually all of Round 1 fall as sleet was a blessing. Precip looks rather anemic still until tomorrow morning, by which point we'll definitely be flirting with the big 32 away from the gorge.

This one worked out remarkably well here.  Avoided damaging winds and the ice was just light enough to avoid tree damage.  Yesterday's max of 21 (with wind) was amazing.  Undoubtedly the coldest afternoon I have felt since Feb 1989.

[NWbyNW]

It's look snowy and frigid from the Downtown Bellingham Tower camera!  Ice forming on the camera face alert! Currently 28F at the camera's location.

 

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This one worked out remarkably well here.  Avoided damaging winds and the ice was just light enough to avoid tree damage.  Yesterday's max of 21 (with wind) was amazing.  Undoubtedly the coldest afternoon I have felt since Feb 1989.

PDX’s high of 25 was the coldest since Feb 2014. The metro-wide 21 at mid-day (with bare ground!!!) was pretty crazy.

[PuyallupChris]

Guy at the end of my cul de sac was, for some reason, trying to drive his Tundra up our gentle hill with a giant trailer hitched to it. Made it right in front of my house, then with every push of the gas pedal his tires would spin and he'd slide backwards. Ended up back at the bottom and finally took the trailer off. No idea what he was planning on doing.

In any case, it's dumping rain and 35 degrees here. Looks to dump for a long time. Mailman just pulled up and then out of the cul de sac with no issues at all. Event is effectively over here, with nothing but nasty cold, a dusting of snow once, and .1" of freezing rain. Kind of a letdown after the model riding, honestly. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, NWbyNW said:

It's look snowy and frigid from the Downtown Bellingham Tower camera!  Ice forming on the camera face alert! Currently 28F at the camera's location.

 

That look so incredibly wintry!

[MossMan]

Current outage status for Snoco. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, PuyallupChris said:

Guy at the end of my cul de sac was, for some reason, trying to drive his Tundra up our gentle hill with a giant trailer hitched to it. Made it right in front of my house, then with every push of the gas pedal his tires would spin and he'd slide backwards. Ended up back at the bottom and finally took the trailer off. No idea what he was planning on doing.

In any case, it's dumping rain and 35 degrees here. Looks to dump for a long time. Mailman just pulled up and then out of the cul de sac with no issues at all. Event is effectively over here, with nothing but nasty cold, a dusting of snow once, and .1" of freezing rain. Kind of a letdown after the model riding, honestly. 

Some people are just dumb!

[Timmy]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Have seemingly lucked out here so far. Roads are slick but drivable, as the majority of the sleet is rather compacted and there isn't too much ice over it yet. Having virtually all of Round 1 fall as sleet was a blessing. Precip looks rather anemic still until tomorrow morning, by which point we'll definitely be flirting with the big 32 away from the gorge.

It’s been misty here and just in the last hour I’ve noticed the roads are getting a lot worse

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Current outage status for Snoco. 

We got off easy.

[NWbyNW]

 

Things look empty and wet in Seattle.  Guess no one is working downtown today.

Vancouver looks snowy!!

 

Snow is still falling in Spokane.  Side streets are all snow and ice, but I-90 looks clear.  Roads look very busy in Spokane today.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

51 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Epic winter for you guys so far.  That's what happens when you get these crazy N to S gradient situations.  As I mentioned earlier the South Coast of WA has barely been cold at all this month while you have been in the freezer a decent part of the month.  Right between the two situations here.

I have not had a total dud of a winter in the four winters I have experienced north of the Chuckanut Mountains. Not a one. Each has featured subfreezing, wintry days, generally with at least one day that doesn’t break the 20°F mark. Rare is the winter without some temperatures in the teens. Yet it’s still a taste of winter and not a relentless slog (been there, done that). About ideal.

[TT-SEA]

Absolutely surreal out there.   The frozen stuff on the driveway is truly like cement.  And that is standing water on top of the snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

46. 

On the power outage front. I told ya'll that 1/4-1/2" of ZR would not cause widespread outages...

[Requiem]

14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Have seemingly lucked out here so far. Roads are slick but drivable, as the majority of the sleet is rather compacted and there isn't too much ice over it yet. Having virtually all of Round 1 fall as sleet was a blessing. Precip looks rather anemic still until tomorrow morning, by which point we'll definitely be flirting with the big 32 away from the gorge.

What are your thoughts on tomorrow-- do you buy models warming central/east metro up to the point they do before heavier precip comes in?

[yellowstone]

Got up to 32.5!!!…and then dipped back to 31.8 with more showers coming through…. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 40 at Government Camp after being 3 at midnight. 

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

In any case, it's dumping rain and 35 degrees here. Looks to dump for a long time. Mailman just pulled up and then out of the cul de sac with no issues at all. Event is effectively over here, with nothing but nasty cold, a dusting of snow once, and .1" of freezing rain. Kind of a letdown after the model riding, honestly. 

It did just enough here to where I'm reasonably satisfied.  Getting a couple of inches of snow during the event really helped.  The overall pattern was really pretty epic.  If it had been suppressed about 50 miles it would have been incredible here.

[Cloud]

Up to 30 but the ice is beginning to thaw out slowly. 

[joelgombiner]

Heavy freezing rain for Snoqualmie Pass tomorrow morning. And heavy rain on snow in the Olympics and Cascades. 

 

[WeatherGeek2022]

23 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

These are the surge rates Uber is paying drivers right now . The Prius fleet has been brought to its knees. 

 

that for rideshare? holy shiz

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I have not had a total dud of a winter in the four winters I have experienced north of the Chuckanut Mountains. Not a one. Each has featured subfreezing, wintry days, generally with at least one day that doesn’t break the 20°F mark. Rare is the winter without some temperatures in the teens. Yet it’s still a taste of winter and not a relentless slog (been there, done that). About ideal.

Even up there you can get a run of duds.  Oddly enough one of the worst runs for Clearbrook was 1943-44 through 1945-46.  Three stinkers in a row.

Recent winters have been ok down this way too.  As I've said...winters have been trending better in recent years in spite of the torrid summers.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I have not had a total dud of a winter in the four winters I have experienced north of the Chuckanut Mountains. Not a one. Each has featured subfreezing, wintry days, generally with at least one day that doesn’t break the 20°F mark. Rare is the winter without some temperatures in the teens. Yet it’s still a taste of winter and not a relentless slog (been there, done that). About ideal.

The last horrible winter was 2015/16 but we still managed to get some falling snow on Christmas Eve and after Christmas. Maybe equaled an inch all winter. since then though we have had fantastic events each winter!! I sure hope we can get another great one or two out of this winter! 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Up to 30 but the ice is beginning to thaw out slowly. 

It seems like the ice accretion has stopped.  Might be what tiny bit of insolation we are getting today.  The air is now saturated as well.

[luterra]

30.6 with no significant precipitation since morning.  Main roads are getting clear, side streets still a sheet of ice.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

The last horrible winter was 2015/16 but we still managed to get some falling snow on Christmas Eve and after Christmas. Maybe equaled an inch all winter. since then though we have had fantastic events each winter!! I sure hope we can get another great one or two out of this winter! 

19-20 has been the only real dud here.  Even up there the rest of that winter was pretty lame for you guys too.  No doubt the fairly short January event saved the winter for you though.

[Perturbed Member]

24 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Have seemingly lucked out here so far. Roads are slick but drivable, as the majority of the sleet is rather compacted and there isn't too much ice over it yet. Having virtually all of Round 1 fall as sleet was a blessing. Precip looks rather anemic still until tomorrow morning, by which point we'll definitely be flirting with the big 32 away from the gorge.

I was impressed how long we were able to maintain enough cold air depth for sleet. Pretty hard to hold onto that profile for so long. 

Visually it is doing a nice job of imitating snow too. Glancing out the window it pretty much looks like that real deal.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It seems like the ice accretion has stopped.  Might be what tiny bit of insolation we are getting today.  The air is now saturated as well.

The ridge behind our house now has low clouds at the top... all night and this morning you could see the top of the ridge even during all the sleet.    The low clouds up there are a warmer and more normal rainy day look.   Its 37 at 90 and Hwy 18 now... only 28 here.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

November 2015 through early January 2016 was pretty decent here. I would say the only true dud winter we've had since I've lived here was 2014-15. 2020-21 was a distant 2nd, but I characterize it as a dud too. I don't think we ever got below 23-24 and 12" of snow here during in a Nina is pathetic. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The Barkley Village web cam NE of downtown Bellingham looks like it may be above freezing.  Roads look clearer, and it looks like cars are kicking up water and are driving without problems at normal speed. Also, the ice on the camera lens is starting to drip.

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

46. 

On the power outage front. I told ya'll that 1/4-1/2" of ZR would not cause widespread outages...

My worry was that the model would be way low on precip.  Thankfully that was not the case.  If we had to come out of this with ice this was the way to do it.  For a while it was actually pretty cool here today.

Still about 30 here.