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September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


stuffradio

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Isn't Indian summer's only a synoptic situation east of the Rockies? Usually you get your first hard freeze that kills crops then warmth returns sometimes for lengthy periods of times.

Mountainous regions of the west can see a freeze or even snow in late September and then return to warmth in October.

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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The warm start played a role too, I'm sure. I don't think anyone envisioned last night staying as mixed as it did there.

 

The column wasn't nearly as dry overnight below the boundary layer, compared to the previous night. The dewpoint at 4K feet over SLE was 35f this morning...compared to 10f yesterday morning. The moist (comparatively) air above wasn't as prone to mixing as the dry air of the previous morning. That's what it looks like to me anyway. 

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Tomorrow night looks pretty chilly.  Northerly surface gradients with fairly cool 850s.  Overall the next two weeks are looking cool.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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My local history guide (everyone's favorite) says there two likely paths from here... a complete descent into cold and rainy for fall (like off a cliff in 2012) or a period of variability with alternating periods of rainy and cool mixed with periods of dry and pleasant  Note that pleasant does not always mean warm as temperatures start becoming dependent on inversions pretty soon. Staying warm and dry is not really an option from what I have seen.

 

I really like seeing the deep trough showing up for next week.   It will bring some needed rain and end the fire season and its early enough to possibly avoid the cliff scenario in October.   

 

No science here.   Just what I have seen locally with a weak Nina following a long, dry summer.    

 

I think a fall like 2011 is more likely than a 2012 repeat. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Someone said they were going to Lake Louise this week. Looks like it is snowing at higher elevations around there this morning.

 

There is some pretty cold air spreading into the interior of western Canada/the northern Rockies with this trough. Won't dig southwest quite enough to give us the really chilly stuff.

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The trough coming next week is looking like one of the most impressive September troughs in quite awhile for the West. And the 12z GFS has another deep trough following it days 9-10.

 

Loving me some La Nina fall. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Still 58 at home. About 61 down in the valley in Bothell. A nice break from the super warm mornings we've had lately.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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12Z ECMWF narrows the period with showers around with the incoming trough to just Sunday evening through early Tuesday morning.   Its already fairly sunny again on Tuesday.

 

Hope we can get enough rain to end the fire season.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z ECMWF narrows the period with showers around with the incoming trough to just Sunday evening through early Tuesday morning. Its already fairly sunny again on Tuesday.

 

Hope we can get enough rain to end the fire season.

Odd development for the land of constant troughing...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Looks like they snuck in a 59 before midnight.

 

This development devastated Brian Schmidt.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I think a fall like 2011 is more likely than a 2012 repeat.

I'm not sure 2011/12 is a good analog, though I guess it's similar to 2007/08 in the PNW, despite some clear mechanical differences on a hemispheric scale.

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