bud2380 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 This is the FV-3 model, but it looks very similar to the NAMs. It really has turned the main line associated with the cold front into a weak scattered line of snow. A far cry from what models have been showing. This has the potential to drop to a 2-4" event if trends don't reverse. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, gosaints said: Ya the front end on the NAM is a glorified frontal passage. That being said I gaining some confidence that this part of the system has the chance to be complete fluff Fluff that can blow on the winds in serious fashion. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 What happened to @Money?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 This thread emptied out quick. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, winterfreak said: This thread emptied out quick. Always does when/if The Plains majority aren't getting theirs. Very lop-sided Sub tbh Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Snowfall totals don't look very impressive except where the Lake will boost totals. Michigan looks to be the winner here, but the main event will be the cold and blowing snow. There is a lot of snow on the ground in west michigan. This is where the heavier snow may fall with a boost from the lake. I don't see how we don't get Blizzard conditions Friday afternoon/night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 I figured it would get quiet. It looks real decent around my part of northeastern Iowa. I still anticipate blizzard warnings with incoming winds, even if we were to only receive a few inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, winterfreak said: This thread emptied out quick. Shorter range models 12z runs are horrendous around here. All we ask for is enough to cover the ground. At this rate that won't even occur. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 My worry now is, people are going to see the snowfall forecast and think, "OH, I've driven in a lot more snow than this. I'll be fine." Then the winds hit and people are going to be in real trouble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Shorter range models 12z runs are horrendous around here. All we ask for is enough to cover the ground. At this rate that won't even occur. I feel your pain. Such is life in this part of the country during the winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, winterfreak said: I feel your pain. Such is life in this part of the country during the winter. My area is still at less than 1" for the season. We almost always have had at least 1 storm by this time of year, either in Oct., Nov., or Dec. It is even more discouraging with all the cold weather that we've had they we couldn't take advantage of it as has happened very close to me. Next 2 weeks look much milder. We have to hope everything cycles back through in Jan. and Feb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 RGEM gives some hope yet. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Looking more and more like a stat padder as far as snow goes. Thinking alot of offices go with WWA from the snow part of the event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 The GFS must be on a timeout 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Any one deterministic model run that shows higher totals needs to be suspect at this point.. there's no point in paying any attention to the canadian that spits out 3 inches more than what the rest of the guidance is saying.. QPF across a wide range has been going down the past 48 hours. Now if ensemble probabilities start to lurch upward, that would be one thing, but 25th-75th percentiles have been going down consistently... to me it's looking like most places outside of the great lakes regions may be under warning criteria snow totals wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Good time for the GFS to take a break. Just let the Euro handle it from here on out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 All I need is 2 inches to make this a good event with the forecasted winds. I'm wondering if ratios will be closer to 20:1 since snowfall should be before arrival of the worst winds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, gabel23 said: Probably the scenario we might be looking at. Some of the short term models have east west bands of snow where if you get under a band you might score 4-6". However, the next bordering county may only get 0.5". Have to hope the large band comes through intact. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 On to the GDPS at any rate for those still around. One day I hope to have a storm like we all thought could happen. Maybe next time! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, sumweatherdude said: So you're saying there's a chance? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 You guys are mad you aren't getting a crazy blizzard. Well as great as it is, I am a little worried here. I worry about power outages, my wife working overnights (I have almost 4 year old twin boys) etc...So on one hand, it's exciting, on the other hand this couldn't be WORSE timing. I can probably handle everything, but power outages would be my #1 on my list of suckiness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said: So you're saying there's a chance? Areas to the north and east have a much better chance... even if the storm gets its act together a bit quicker, it would first benefit those areas before the KC area. We would have to see a fairly large trend for snow totals to go up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 This is from a research article of a climatology of snow to liquid ratios for the entire conus between 1971-2000. Obviously, with these cold temperatures, snow to liquid ratios will be higher, but I post this to warn against just going with the Kuchera snow maps. This is a map of not the mean ratios, but the 75th percentile meaning what would likely be the higher end of ratios for a snow event. Much of Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois is in the 14-15:1 range. Climatology suggests that even in the more extreme events like this one, you can't necessarily bank on 20:1 + snow to liquid ratios. Another aspect to think about is how strong the winds will be which will likely breakdown the dendrites as they fall through the atmosphere. Just some thoughts... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 I blame myself. Bought a new snowblower Sunday and jinxed it. Seriously though, 2 years ago in the winter of 20-21, Omaha had 50+” of snow and it was only the beginning of February. My sister in law had an old used snowblower they were getting rid of and so after being sick of shoveling 50” of snow that winter, we bought it real cheap from her. It literally quit snowing the rest of that season and I didn’t even use it that season even though traditionally February and March are normally our biggest hitters. Then last winter, 21-22, we had a whopping 11” of snow the entire winter. So far this winter, we’re at about 3”. So in basically 2 full years, we’ve had 14” of snow. Total. And for some reason I thought it made sense to buy a new one. I was getting the old one out to prepare for this storm and it wouldn’t start. Rather than messing around with an old one, I bit the bullet and bought a new electric one. We’ll see if I use it this year either. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Oh Canada 12z, puts out the most snow by far in this area. Is it on to something, or out in no mans land? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Hmm, improvement somewhat in Iowa from 0z run on gfs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 This is losing strength on the models. I'll take a slightly less strong storm here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Always does when/if The Plains majority aren't getting theirs. Very lop-sided Sub tbh I'm here, just lurking as usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 GFS maybe bucking downward trend in qpf. First run with decent increase for many in IA. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Some signs that the GFS may be stopping the bleed on this run 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Warning level for a wide area if the GFS verifies. I'll be heading back to MN tonight. Snow should move in around lunchtime tomorrow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 With regards to yesterday's event here in KC, the Canadian model and RGEM picked up on the dry air and showed the the snow having a tough time making it into the city. It turned out to be right as we had basically nothing in the city when the NAM was showing 3 inches of snow. (current NAM is the weakest of all model runs as far as totals go for everyone) The GFS did correct around 24 hours out showing a non-event keeping the brunt of the moisture west of here and up into Iowa. The GFS actually was the only one showing this system up in Iowa from 50 hours out, the rest played catch up. The current Canadian and RGEM show a nice 3-4 inch snow with crazy wind and crazy cold. We'll see if these two models can pull out another win as I'll take that winter storm every day of the week. ICON shows 2-3 inches in the city. Let's face it, it's KC, hard to get big snowfalls here. 48 hours out, we'll see if we can get the storm to dig a bit more. You just never know. We all still have a great chance of a winter storm and a white X-mas, we all should be super happy about that. Last year here in KC, I believe we were 72 degrees on X-mas eve. 40MPH winds, snow falling, dangerous cold, that sounds like a winter storm to me! At least we have something to track. With every storm, there will be some surprises. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 I was surprised yesterday when NWS Green Bay didn't issue watches. They held firm this morning as well. National Weather Service Green Bay WI 418 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2022 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance Still too much uncertainty on key aspects of the forecast to issue headlines for the incoming storm system with the morning issuance. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 I"m riding the Canadian and Euro. By far have been the most consistent. Not saying we get the totals the Canadian is showing but it has a good idea in terms of the heaviest snow band. That actually lines ups pretty well with what the GFS is showing; I just don't trust the GFS though that thing has been Jekyll and Hyde! Jim Flowers seems to believe in it also. I'm fine with any amount, just please give us enough to cover the ground before the arctic invasion. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, gabel23 said: I"m riding the Canadian and Euro. By far have been the most consistent. Not saying we get the totals the Canadian is showing but it has a good idea in terms of the heaviest snow band. That actually lines ups pretty well with what the GFS is showing; I just don't trust the GFS though that thing has been Jekyll and Hyde! Jim Flowers seems to believe in it also. I'm fine with any amount, just please give us enough to cover the ground before the arctic invasion. Great stuff @gabel23. Jim is a great person to follow if you have Facebook. Good humor and gives great weather lessons. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 I may be off here, but seems like .6” of QPF should be equating to more than 7.9” of snow with these ratios. That’s “only” 13.1:1 ratios. Not to mention the fact that Kuchera seems overdone a lot of the times. Edit: never mind most of the other numbers are between 15-20:1 which makes more sense. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 @gabel23What do you think the NWS offices put out this afternoon, winter weather advisories, winter storm warnings, or blizzard warnings? I would assume they would need to issue something this afternoon as the poor conditions move in Wednesday evening which is only a little over 1 day away. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kush61 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Another lurker here. Cold front forecasted to come through my area at the crack of noon. I'll be out doors waiting for it ! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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