chances14 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, uticasnow said: I just don't see this having much moisture to deliver large snow amounts. Blizzard conditions probably, but only about 2-4" blowing around will be bad enough. Yeah i wouldn't be surprised if the snow amounts are lower than forecasted. The wind aspect is going to be the major storyline in this storm so even a couple inches is going to cause havoc 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, chances14 said: Yeah i wouldn't be surprised if the snow amounts are lower than forecasted. The wind aspect is going to be the major storyline in this storm so even a couple inches is going to cause havoc Yeap...maybe we will be suprised but doubt it. Here in Macomb County we usually are in the warm air longer when a storm like this comes along and with it being moisture starved to begin with I think the 2-4 with it being closer to 2" is more realistic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 23 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Crap. The HRRR was already one of the northern models with the lead wave this evening. It is trending even farther north. If I had a dollar for everytime the HRRR was way off though, I'd be a very rich man. I know that with the system late last week, it kept showing the band of heavy snow moving further and further west. My parents house was supposed to get 5" based on the HRRR right before the storm hit, and they got about 1/2". 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 NWS oddly (and unnecessarily IMO) issuing a split Winter Storm Warning followed by a blizzard warning. I get the reasoning why, but this just once again seems like the NWS trying to get too cute with a forecast. The average person isn't going to know or understand the time difference between the WSW expiring and converting to a blizzard warning. They are just going to see that a blizzard warning has been issued and assume the entire storm is a blizzard. Here is the wording for CR/IC area. * WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Northwest winds gusting as high as 40 mph. For the Blizzard Warning, blizzard conditions expected. Northwest winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Iowa. * WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday. For the Blizzard Warning, from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM CST Saturday. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 The Euro begins my friends! Hope everyone who wanrs snow will get it! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 What a kick in the gut the last couple days of model watching this has been. From a monster storm to almost nothing for at least us west of MI/IN. This was hyped so much that LOT had to issue a WSW for a couple inches of snow. I know there will be blowing snow but no big deal as the deeper winds will be farther east. We are all still hoping for a faster deepening of the storm, for those of us farther west, but I highly doubt this is going to happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, bud2380 said: If I had a dollar for everytime the HRRR was way off though, I'd be a very rich man. I know that with the system late last week, it kept showing the band of heavy snow moving further and further west. My parents house was supposed to get 5" based on the HRRR right before the storm hit, and they got about 1/2". It also failed miserably on the monday night system as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 The Euro is a puke sandwich for KC. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bumblin Bman09 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Tony said: What a kick in the gut the last couple days of model watching this has been. From a monster storm to almost nothing for at least us west of MI/IN. This was hyped so much that LOT had to issue a WSW for a couple inches of snow. I know there will be blowing snow but no big deal as the deeper winds will be farther east. We are all still hoping for a faster deepening of the storm, for those of us farther west, but I highly doubt this is going to happen. Yup. Not in the cards for us this time around. I was hoping for a big one. Ugh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 latest RAP - total snow + end of run frame 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, bud2380 said: If I had a dollar for everytime the HRRR was way off though, I'd be a very rich man. I know that with the system late last week, it kept showing the band of heavy snow moving further and further west. My parents house was supposed to get 5" based on the HRRR right before the storm hit, and they got about 1/2". HRRR sometimes picks up some nice trends, but it definitely feels like it's pretty trash most of the time. I trust a wet fart more than the HRRR. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Bumblin Bman09 said: Yup. Not in the cards for us this time around. I was hoping for a big one. Ugh All the media really hyped this one up. Still seeing stuff on the internet where this is a "once in a generation" storm across the nation. Good luck to all of you guys that are ready to be blizzarded. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 It’s over here. Dusting-2”. Massive waste of what should have been a good pattern. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Don't look at the EURO cause there is nothing to see. Based on this run, all warnings would be removed everywhere. (some sarcasm) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, Clinton said: The Euro is a puke sandwich for KC. 3 minutes ago, winterfreak said: It’s over here. Dusting-2”. Massive waste of what should have been a good pattern. It's amazing how systems will show such promise and then be reduced to next to nothing. Never seems to work the other way... 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Tony said: Don't look at the EURO cause there is nothing to see. Based on this run, all warnings would be removed everywhere. (some sarcasm) Completely get your point although we would probably be looking at a blizzard warning here even if we dont get any fresh snow. What we have on the ground now is complete powder in the tops 3-4 inches 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsut Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Being in Toronto this make me sad, though not as sad as last weeks storm did. Who knows though, maybe this system will also be all rain. We'll know in a couple of days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, mlgamer said: It's amazing how systems will show such promise and then be reduced to next to nothing. Never seems to work the other way... No kidding, not what I wanted to see out of the Euro. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 14 minutes ago, mlgamer said: It's amazing how systems will show such promise and then be reduced to next to nothing. Never seems to work the other way... Every stinking time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 The battle of the major weather models is now on. The 12Z GFS at 48hrs has a 978 low over Detroit while the ECMWF at that time has a 982 low over Buffalo, NY. For Grand Rapids at 48 Hrs the GFS has a temperature of 21 and the ECMWF has it at +8. As for wind the GFS at 48 hrs has a NW wind at GR (not good for lake effect) and the ECMWF has a west wind. So that’s how things stand at this time at around noon on Friday. Pick the one you want to believe or better yet split the difference and put the low 980 near Toronto, a temperature of around 18 and a wnw wind. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 very good trends on cams here in C.IA- (compared to Euro-- Euro here is past it's worth- but still gives 5") -- love both the latest RAP and HRRR and they are getting in "trust" range to serious trust as they both are agreeing (rare)--- And for the 13th time since 2001-- my county (DALLAS) is in a Blizzard Warning. They don't just hand those out. 6 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, Clinton said: No kidding, not what I wanted to see out of the Euro As I have stated in the past I have always wonder how todays weather models would handle a storm like the ones in 1978 and 1967 of even going back more the 1913 or 1940 storms. looks like I still might have to wait. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: very good trends on cams here in C.IA- (compared to Euro-- Euro here is past it's worth- but still gives 5") -- love both the latest RAP and HRRR and they are getting in "trust" range to serious trust as they both are agreeing (rare)--- And for the 13th time since 2001-- my county (DALLAS) is in a Blizzard Warning. They don't just hand those out. Hope you end up with an overperformer. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Blizzard warning nudging closer to me. For mby a split winter storm warning.....1 for current snowfall and the other for blowing snow.i guess we get a break in between 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Not sure 2 minutes ago, james1976 said: Blizzard warning nudging closer to me. For mby a split winter storm warning.....1 for current snowfall and the other for blowing snow.i guess we get a break in between If the Twin Cities gets in a Blizzard Warning - consider yourself very fortunate. Due to the urban nature , very rare. I believe twice in my lifetime-- not saying my age (due the math-- I've been around the block a few times) I just looked at watches/warnings map--- thats really close, but again think about Urban areas, it's very hard to have a blizzard warning for downtown MPLS/STP--- 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 52 minutes ago, bud2380 said: NWS oddly (and unnecessarily IMO) issuing a split Winter Storm Warning followed by a blizzard warning. I get the reasoning why, but this just once again seems like the NWS trying to get too cute with a forecast. The average person isn't going to know or understand the time difference between the WSW expiring and converting to a blizzard warning. They are just going to see that a blizzard warning has been issued and assume the entire storm is a blizzard. Here is the wording for CR/IC area. * WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Northwest winds gusting as high as 40 mph. For the Blizzard Warning, blizzard conditions expected. Northwest winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Iowa. * WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday. For the Blizzard Warning, from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM CST Saturday. Bliz of Dec 2000 was same in this region and it worked out ok. WSW during daylight, followed by a BW after dark. Travel during the day wasn't that bad with plows able to keep up. Got dicey with the strong winds later, especially in open areas you did not want to be caught out there. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, tbone8 said: Hard to swallow all that pink. Bliz Warn based on vis, not SN depth/amt. Cannot fathom that this cannot piece together at least 3 hrs of conditions that meet the criteria 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 22 minutes ago, westMJim said: As I have stated in the past I have always wonder how todays weather models would handle a storm like the ones in 1978 and 1967 of even going back more the 1913 or 1940 storms. looks like I still might have to wait. Either way, if this trends to another joke storm it will be totally due to the lame models and all their over-hyped outputs. And not just a run or two. Days and days of incorrect depictions. Will make too difficult to trust anything they showed later if/when one of your list comes to fruition. If this is a fail, I won't even be watching. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Snow squall warning near Rapid City. Expect more when the "true" Arctic front blast through for posters in NE/IA/SW MN --- Look at this ob from KRAP- Katie Barr the Door being it's "M1/4SM" - (automated = less the 1/4sm) - it's likely MUCH less. Like 1/8. 4 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Either way, if this trends to another joke storm it will be totally due to the lame models and all their over-hyped outputs. And not just a run or two. Days and days of incorrect depictions. Will make too difficult to trust anything they showed later if/when one of your list comes to fruition. If this is a fail, I won't even be watching. This is what happens when we try to steal away a storm that was meant for the East Coast! Not doing this ever again. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Hard to swallow all that pink. Bliz Warn based on vis, not SN depth/amt. Cannot fathom that this cannot piece together at least 3 hrs of conditions that meet the criteria Yes, and a blizzard is a very dangerous situation. Watched a documentary a few yrs ago about the 77 or 78 blizzard where a fella got out of his stuck vehicle and attempted to walk home a relatively short distance. He got disoriented and froze to death only a stones throw away from his home. Back in 78, very few folks had 4wd vehicles and most were smart enough to shelter inside during that storm. I fear today with everyone having a cell phone and an suv, some will feel bulletproof with this dangerous storm potentially costing them their lives. I let people close to me know to be off the roads NLT 6pm and stay put till it is over! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 For the non metar people - this is what is going on in Rapid City vicinity right now- HEAVY SNOW and -10F. Amazing. The Heavy Snow is true in this case, not thrown off by ViS. ( BLSN) True +SN and -10F-- are you kidding me? 1 1 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 29 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Not sure If the Twin Cities gets in a Blizzard Warning - consider yourself very fortunate. Due to the urban nature , very rare. I believe twice in my lifetime-- not saying my age (due the math-- I've been around the block a few times) I just looked at watches/warnings map--- thats really close, but again think about Urban areas, it's very hard to have a blizzard warning for downtown MPLS/STP--- Yup I saw they cut it right around the metro and assumed that's why Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 1.3" so far -2 current temp 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: For the non metar people - this is what is going on in Rapid City vicinity right now- HEAVY SNOW and -10F. Amazing. The Heavy Snow is true in this case, not thrown off by ViS. ( BLSN) True +SN and -10F-- are you kidding me? Hope we can score some of this type of stuff here in Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 22 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Hard to swallow all that pink. Bliz Warn based on vis, not SN depth/amt. Cannot fathom that this cannot piece together at least 3 hrs of conditions that meet the criteria I'm officially under a Blizzard Warning from Thursday at 4pm (No blizzard until Friday, but whatever) until Saturday 7pm afternoon. 10-20" of snow. They mention models no longer backing off on QPF and feel that West Michigan will have more snow on the ground to create blizzard warning criteria, than the east side of the state. ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected Friday. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Michigan. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 I've found myself looking at these experimental snowfall forecasts. They failed miserably for last weeks lake effect snow. So who knows how good they actually are. Last week I had less than a 10 percent chance of seeing over 6" of snow. I got 14.5" So clearly it is struggling with lake effect. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 12z models for mby, we shall see who wins. NAM: 3.3 RGEM: 7.0 HRRR: 3.0 ICON: 3.5 FV3: 4.5 GFS: 5.0 CMC: 7.0 Euro: 2.5 15z RAP: 4.0 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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