October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Currently @ 46F with crystal clear skies. My rain chances for Friday and into early Sat morning have disappear. Now, its just a cloudy forecast. 

[Tom]

It's a cool, crisp 50F as the sun rises above the horizon...beautiful morning here before the rains begin later today.  Models have backed off some to more reasonable amounts.  In general, 1-2" can be expected.

 

LOT...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png

[Tom]

Ryan Maue created more FREE model maps...click here...including the Euro!

 

http://wx.graphics

[Tom]

JMA Weeklies over the next 2 weeks showing a La Nina signature precip anomaly...above normal Plains/Midwest/Lakes

 

[james1976]

DMX not confident on any cooldown next week with overnight model runs being inconsistent, especially the GFS.

[Tom]

JMA suggesting Week 3-4 the N PAC jet ignites...we really need to pay attention to how this evolves later in the month...

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201710.D0412_gl0.png

 

[Tom]

DMX not confident on any cooldown next week with overnight model runs being inconsistent, especially the GFS.

The 00z Euro is still pretty chilly on Tuesday but it whisps away rather quickly as a ridge builds in.  Very transient pattern.

[Niko]

TS Nate has formed and soon to be a Hurricane and hit parts of the southern US states.

[Niko]

My area stands the chance of seeing more 80s next week. unreal!

[Tom]

Both GEFS/EPS are suggesting a breakdown of the Bearing Sea ridge by Day 7-10 and maybe into Week 2. If this happens, it would suggest a break down of the SE ridge and a +PNA pattern to end Oct and begin November.  CFSv2 weeklies are showing this happening late month so we could be seeing the correlation evolve.

 

 

[Tom]

The tropical storm coming out of the GOM is an interesting system and looks to likely impact the App's early next week.  App runner???  How this system interacts with the incoming trough is still a big question.  The trends have been farther west with the track.

 

 

 

[Niko]

Hopefully the Harvey victims wont get affected by Nate.

[jaster220]

It feels nice out there, although, still muggy. Next week looks like another surge of warmth coming.

 

Can thank the tropics for that, since we're not officially in a Nina. Though a warm autumn is a signature of a developing Nina ala 2007

[Minny_Weather]

Hopefully the Harvey victims wont get affected by Nate.

I'm thinking they're fine. They'll probably just get an uptick in precip chances at best.

[Niko]

Can thank the tropics for that, since we're not officially in a Nina. Though a warm autumn is a signature of a developing Nina ala 2007

Now with Nate in the picture, it will bring that warmth in here next week with a vengeance.

 

Ofc, I have always liked warm Autumns. They tend to give great Winters.

[Minny_Weather]

Is 00z Euro not showing up for anyone else?

[jaster220]

The tropical storm coming out of the GOM is an interesting system and looks to likely impact the App's early next week.  App runner???  How this system interacts with the incoming trough is still a big question.  The trends have been farther west with the track.

 

 

 

 

Yeah, this was mentioned on Amwx as well, even though CPC 3-7 day hazards as of yesterday still has the rain streaks well east of your maps. Another map caught my attention this morning:

 

 

 

Couldn't help but notice that the chunk of cold front precip was for the most part a fail yesterday do in part to the retarded timing of development along the front of a secondary SLP. Well, low and behold, LOOK where it did finally develop and now is delivering the rainy goods! This is a size-able concern of mine for the upcoming cold season with Marshall being just north of the active track snow swath. Not saying mby is left out of every party, but it could be the difference between a good year, and a stellar year. 76-77 was a bit that way with the cold overwhelming and pushing the storms south of MI. 

[Niko]

I'm thinking they're fine. They'll probably just get an uptick in precip chances at best.

That will be great! They are still trying to get life back to normal there. Last thing they need is Nate.

[jaster220]

Is 00z Euro not showing up for anyone else?

 

LOL, been last Dec since the Euro delivered for SMI. Ofc it's a no-show

[Minny_Weather]

Woke up to loud thunder and a 10 minute downpour this morning.

 

 

 

[jaster220]

That will be great! They are still trying to get life back to normal there. Last thing they need is Nate.

 

Nothing like PR though. They're living a 3rd world existence with 90% of the island without electricity, scant water and food. Bad bad situation down there. Hopefully they're survivor types. 

[Niko]

Nothing like PR though. They're living a 3rd world existence with 90% of the island without electricity, scant water and food. Bad bad situation down there. Hopefully they're survivor types. 

PR is totally10x more in a disaster zone. Hope for the best for those people. President Trump visited the area just days ago. I am hoping he provided some needed help (food, water, electricity and much more). It will take a long time to recover down there as well as the Harvey victims.

[gabel23]

Holy cow was it absolutely pouring this morning! You couldn't see anything for 30 minutes it was raining so hard. We picked up an inch of rain in less than an hour. My wife was on her way to work this morning in the rain and must have just missed an accident. She seen a shoe on the road and a semi parked on her side of the road. Well, I'm an EMT and while I was at school the page went out that there was a fatality in that accident. Thank goodness my wife wasn't involved but she is pretty shook up that's for sure. 

[Tom]

Holy cow was it absolutely pouring this morning! You couldn't see anything for 30 minutes it was raining so hard. We picked up an inch of rain in less than an hour. My wife was on her way to work this morning in the rain and must have just missed an accident. She seen a shoe on the road and a semi parked on her side of the road. Well, I'm an EMT and while I was at school the page went out that there was a fatality in that accident. Thank goodness my wife wasn't involved but she is pretty shook up that's for sure.

Glad she is safe Gabel! Sounds like the atmosphere is juiced up which I'm looking forward to out here. So desperate to see much needed precip and soak the vegetation. You guys have been doing good lately.

[NEJeremy]

[Tom]

Emptied .97" out of my rain gauge last night before this event started. I don't remember when that was from except sometime earlier this week. That's on top of the 1.7" from last week and now 2-3" we're getting next. Been raining steady all morning. Dreary day to go along with my mood on my 40th birthday today God I'm old

Happy 40th!  Age is just a number...don't sweat it!

[jaster220]

Happy 40th!  Age is just a number...don't sweat it!

 

^^^ what he said 

[jaster220]

Looking more and more like SON wants to be a run-away heat train. So much for us being due a colder autumn. That's going up in smoke-n-fire fast! 

[Minny_Weather]

Looking more and more like SON wants to be a run-away heat train. So much for us being due a colder autumn. That's going up in smoke-n-fire fast!

I don't thing it'll be a constant warmth like last Fall though. More like a Fall with swings which happen to average out to above normal.

[Jaycee]

Thinking we might get the shaft when all is said and done here with the rain. Heaviest looks to remain SE of here near KS/MO.

[jaster220]

Hey buddy, 12z GFS in lala land...say what?!

 

 

   I know right??

 

Nonetheless, fact is sometimes stranger than fiction (15 day model maps, lol). They were showing how FWA was in the 70's a few days before, and a few days after the infamous 6-10" freak snowstorm of almost the same date in '89

 

This could fall into Niko's "Nevva say nevva" category 

 

 

 

Oh, and where I was living in Genesee Cnty, I remember stepping out for work that morning and being shocked, like we'd time-warped 2 months forward to Dec! Solid snow falling on an east wind like the middle of winter    only got about 2-3" but it's the most I've experienced at mby(s) in Oct. Not even in NMI (lake shadow) did I get big snow before Nov 1st. 

[james1976]

Glad she is safe Gabel! Sad situation though. Bad thing about inclement weather is the danger that can come with it.

 

Happy bday NEJeremy! Ill be 41 next month. Yup its just a number!

[Minny_Weather]

Thinking we might get the shaft when all is said and done here with the rain. Heaviest looks to remain SE of here near KS/MO.

We're not supposed to get much rain anyway. Down near Falls City approaching MO should cash in.

[Hawkeye]

The models have backed off a bit on our rain event, but still suggest 1.5-2.0".

 

Next week's cold shot is fading on the models.  I don't want to have to cover my plants, so I'm fine with that.  Once the hummingbirds are gone after mid-month, I don't care how cold it gets.

 

Happy B-day.  I turn 43 on Tuesday.  Time sure flies.

[Tom]

Ryan Maue is loading more stuff on the Euro maps, now including precip...I smell a competition between WxBell and Weather.US...

 

Edit: Might not need to subscribe to WxBell anymore if he continues to provide more free stuff

[Hawkeye]

Ryan Maue is loading more stuff on the Euro maps, now including precip...I smell a competition between WxBell and Weather.US...

 

Edit: Might not need to subscribe to WxBell anymore if he continues to provide more free stuff

 

Maue tweeted that WxBell cut off access to his maps when he left, so he will have to re-build them for weather.us / wx.graphics.

[Tom]

Maue tweeted that WxBell cut off access to his maps when he left, so he will have to re-build them for weather.us / wx.graphics.

Oh wow, that doesn't sound to nice of them I'd say...a little game playing tactics???  I smell revenge...

[Tom]

Meantime, 12z GEFS starting to hint at the trough (16th-21st) based on the East Asian theory...northern plains cool of first before it swings through.  Early snows up there may be on the table from what I'm seeing.  Before then, a puff of very warm air (13-th-15th) on the table as the yo-yo pattern continues.

[Tom]

Over the last few GEFS runs, another CO low showing up around the 15th and fits the pattern....looks active and wetter into Week 2....

 

[james1976]

Kind of a bummer that trough for next week is disappearing. Hopefully the one showing up mid month pans out.