November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

15 yrs since WMI has been this cold this early..

 

 

GRR pm AFD

 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

There is little question this will be the coldest week of the fall
so far. Based on our current forecast, which indicates a mean
temperature for the next 7 days at GRR to be near 36 degrees, you
have to go back to 2002 to find a 7 day mean temperature that cold
this early in the season.

 

Also said later in the AFD that "a few inches of LES is possible on a N wind Thursday night into Friday". So, I may see some flakes after all between home and work. Weekend system they say will be delayed, as posted above, prolly till all the cold is scoured out and we'll be left with a rainer. 

Edited November 6, 2017 by jaster220

[OKwx2k4]

Yep, but we were hoping for some flake action across the sub this week/end, and now we see this massive strong Arctic HP bullying it's way down and cutting in front of the weekend system causing it to be an ill-timed rainer if anything even comes of it? Apparently something went a bit wrong with the plan of having a nice west-to-east tracker sliding under the HP - poor little thing just gets crushed! So, what went on up there in the far north to shove that HP down all of a sudden. It's like the freezer door suddenly got shoved open from the inside, and it's swinging thru the E GL's much like the Jan '14 PV did. Kicks up a little Clipper ahead of it which triggers some LES for those to my N and E, but this is too reminiscent of the last 2 winters tbh. Usually takes some kind of major storm to bring this down, yet I'm not seeing one??

That's what I mean though. Until the QBO has propagated all the way down (coming soon, stay tuned), you won't see things differentiate much from what we have seen the past 2 years. Right now QBO has reversed at 10mb and 30mb but wont reach 50mb til end of this month into December. After that, boom goes the pattern.

 

Late Nov, (after the 17th) is when the dominoes have been set to start falling for a long time. At least since the start of September.

[Jaycee]

I think it's going to get really active at the end of the month with Chicago getting a Winter Storm Warning after Thanksgiving. I don't think we'll be fortunate enough in the Central Plains to get much, but I think this is when those Texas Panhandle Hook storms will start to dominate and rock KC and points NW. I'm banking on either Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, having a solid snowpack by the end of November going into December and beyond. This is going to be a wild year, beginning this month for you upper-Midwest folks. There's just no way you guys aren't the jackpot this year, I can feel it!

[bud2380]

Not much of interest showing up right now on the models.  Euro has an extended period of ridging throughout the majority of the central and western US for most of the extended starting on Saturday/Sunday time frame.  No snow coming yet for most of us.  Hopefully in a week or so we see something interesting.  

[Thunder98]

The NWS forecast for International Falls now shows a potential 1st 0F low of the season for Thursday Night/Friday Morning. While Wunderground shows a 2F low instead.

 

 

[Thunder98]

Could this Winter be colder than 2013-2014, late 70's for the Midwest region?

[GDR]

Over 300 hrs of nothing on gfs zzzzzzzz!!!

[hlcater]

Over 300 hrs of nothing on gfs zzzzzzzz!!!

It's November.

[Minny_Weather]

It's November.

If you have nothing but dry air even in November then you have the right to be pissed. It signals an overall dry pattern which, in a lot of cases, spills over to Winter. 2009-2010 is a pleasant exception here at least. 

 

My friend from Hiawatha says hi.

[jaster220]

Over 300 hrs of nothing on gfs zzzzzzzz!!!

And that's just about the time when things suddenly show up outta nowhere. I think that happened regularly in 07-08

[Niko]

Currently at 32F and heading down into the 20s.

 

End of this week, I might be looking at highs near 30F.

[Niko]

Over 300 hrs of nothing on gfs zzzzzzzz!!!

Yup, its 300+ hrs, so don't rely on that. Things change in a heart beat.

[Niko]

Not much of interest showing up right now on the models.  Euro has an extended period of ridging throughout the majority of the central and western US for most of the extended starting on Saturday/Sunday time frame.  No snow coming yet for most of us.  Hopefully in a week or so we see something interesting.  

Same here...a dry week shaping up, but chilly and turning substantially colder by weeks end. Weekend disturbance might provide some snowshowers.

[Minny_Weather]

Not too disappointed cuz we weren't supposed to get anything anyway, but I love how HRRR has the snowband overperforming to our West then right as it gets to my county it dissolves

[james1976]

So i guess i wont look at the 00z models lol

[OKwx2k4]

Doesn't look like much yet, but should see a nice trend colder for this period as we go.

 

[OKwx2k4]

Most modelling should be supporting some nice cold soon.

 

 

Just need a storm to try to cut under somewhere around Turkey Day if the stage gets set like I think it will.

[Grizzcoat]

The NWS forecast for International Falls now shows a potential 1st 0F low of the season for Thursday Night/Friday Morning. While Wunderground shows a 2F low instead.

 

 

 It's near -10F in Hallock as I write. I-Falls is usually behind areas further W when it comes to the first - 0F temp because of Rainy Lake.  For those that care-- the NW part of MN is the coldest part of MN in the winter months-- but not in the year round. Then it's Gunflint Lake area in the Arrowhead. I know the Coop observer there and rent dog sleds every winter. FYI-- in 1936 the owner of Gunflint Lodge (Justine Kerfoot) walked all the way across Gunflint Lake (no small lake) on June 1st. 

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

 

Heading into the weekend, long range guidance continues to indicate
the flow gradually becoming more meridional as another shot of
northern stream PV dives southeastward from the upper Plains. A
deepening longwave trough looks to track through the region late
Saturday and into Sunday, and the thermal profile looks to be easily
cold enough for snow. As expected in the long term, there are
differences amongst the guidance in how deep the trough gets, but at
the very least, the trough axis will swing through the region and
enough moisture looks to pool out ahead of it for a possible
widespread light snow. Still plenty of time to see how this system
shapes out, but will continue to closely monitor over the coming
days.

[Niko]

Currently, 32F w mostly cloudy skies. Big Arctic Chill coming. Highs may struggle at 30F on Friday and lows in the teens. Cold air will be in place for the potential for the first widespread snowfall of the season this weekend. Still, days away for any changes to occur.

[Tom]

What a difference a year makes....

 

[Tom]

00z EPS/Euro still painting a nice little snow event for parts of MN/IA and WI posters...and of course, the U.P.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017110700/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_156.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017110700/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_156.png

[jaster220]

I think it's going to get really active at the end of the month with Chicago getting a Winter Storm Warning after Thanksgiving. I don't think we'll be fortunate enough in the Central Plains to get much, but I think this is when those Texas Panhandle Hook storms will start to dominate and rock KC and points NW. I'm banking on either Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, having a solid snowpack by the end of November going into December and beyond. This is going to be a wild year, beginning this month for you upper-Midwest folks. There's just no way you guys aren't the jackpot this year, I can feel it!

 

Is that bolded statement based on something in model world, or more of a gut hunch thingy? That's pretty specific wording and since I don't watch every run of every model, just curious mainly.

[Tom]

Numerous locations in ND/NW MN are in the single digits below zero this morning...Brrrrr!  For 11/7, this is an impressive arctic shot...a sign of the times???

 

Later this week we may make a run at some record low's for a lot of the north....possible LES for Chicago Friday morning???

 

[jaster220]

 

 

00z EPS/Euro still painting a nice little snow event for parts of MN/IA and WI posters...and of course, the U.P.

 

Yeah, noticed yesterday that WPC's experimental d6 map had moved any real precip north. Oh well, it's really just fighting climo for us to get real snow down at our lat, and when it does happen this early it's usually not the best of signs for the winter. Autumn's still playing out across SWMI, with trees along the immediate lakeshore putting on quite a colorful show in places. I'm sure snow will come soon enough, tho listening to GR's all Christmas music channel the other evening made me want snow around to go along with the songs  . Normally not a fan of rushing the Holidays but my wife likes the traditional sounds of American Christmas music, and who was I to disagree with a beautiful lady in a happy mood? 

[Tom]

Is the behavior of the Strat trying to say something for a Thanksgiving week run up???  IMO, the stars are aligning just right for a lot of potential this year.

[jaster220]

Numerous locations in ND/NW MN are in the single digits below zero this morning...Brrrrr!  For 11/7, this is an impressive arctic shot...a sign of the times???

 

Later this week we may make a run at some record low's for a lot of the north....possible LES for Chicago Friday morning???

 

 

Pretty confident that this push of chill will trigger some lake flakes. Question is how near shore, what with the elevated early season water temps? Also, this blast will likely be part of our LRC, coming as it is after (5) systems/storms for SMI during the last month (10/6 - 11/5). This will be a cold shocker each time it cycles thru imho.. 

[Tom]

Pretty confident that this push of chill will trigger some lake flakes. Question is how near shore, what with the elevated early season water temps? Also, this blast will likely be part of our LRC, coming as it is after (5) systems/storms for SMI during the last month (10/6 - 11/5). This will be a cold shocker each time it cycles thru imho.. 

Of many...since October 22nd's very strong mid Autumn CF swung through the central CONUS, the pattern flipped in the all important period the Gary highlights is the "heart" of the LRC.  The cool is to rule in a pattern that seemingly trends in our favor (for those who like cold in the winter).  There have been many times already this season for stronger HP's, marry that with a snow cover, clear skies and calm wind in the winter and I think there will be a lot of cold cold periods.

[Tom]

Both GEFS/EPS are trending in a wintry period to open the big Thanksgiving travel week near the Lakes/Midwest.  If this holds, it is "fitting" the harmonic rhythm's which I have been analyzing since this past weekend.  Very interesting.

[westMJim]

I am up in Bay City for my birthday. The temperature here this AM is 30° there are broken clouds but no frost. I said yesterday I would report on the leaves here as there are still a lot of leaves on the trees in the GR metro area. Well on the trip here it varies going from areas of a lot of leaves with good color to areas of no leaves and a more November like look. Here in Bay City being near the Saginaw Bay there are still a lot of leaves on the trees and some good color. But note the low could be down in the mid 20’s tonight (as will most of Michigan) and the low here on Friday morning could get get down to mid to upper teens so I would expect all of the leaves to be off the trees by the weekend.
As for the cold this week not much snow is expected could that be the trend this winter? The moisture and wind direction are not right for lake snows for much of lower Michigan, There could be some near the lake shore (Michigan) and to the east of here(the Bay City area) where lake snows can happen with a north wind.
 

[Jaycee]

Is that bolded statement based on something in model world, or more of a gut hunch thingy? That's pretty specific wording and since I don't watch every run of every model, just curious mainly.

 

While it is a statement, I just have a gut feeling. I don't want to sound cocky but I swear my gut predictions have been really accurate when it comes to this lol so I think it'll happen! Thanksgiving has treated Chicago well in past years, I remember a snowstorm as a youngster in 2004 I think? And ever since then it always seems that they get snow around that time of year. I think there will be something in the Midwest. I truly believe us out here in the Plains we don't get a drop of precip until December.

[jaster220]

Is the behavior of the Strat trying to say something for a Thanksgiving week run up???  IMO, the stars are aligning just right for a lot of potential this year.

 

Wow, it sure looks that way. Have we seen a deeper map than that, especially over our side?? 

[Tom]

12z GFS long range is really starting to highlight the LRC's mini harmonic cycles!  Things are lining up quiet well but I won't say for sure just yet.  Would like to see a few more runs but the idea is there that Thanksgiving week begins with a bang.

[Tom]

Wow, it sure looks that way. Have we seen a deeper map than that, especially over our side?? 

I can't recall Nov '13 looking like this by Thanksgiving week!  This year may be bolder with the colder after all if this continues.

[OKwx2k4]

I can't recall Nov '13 looking like this by Thanksgiving week! This year may be bolder with the colder after all if this continues.

Yes. This plays more to the 00-01 analog although that year started in October instead of November.

[St Paul Storm]

Coldest start to November here since 2006. GFS has Thursday night lows in the mid teens while the GEM has low single digits. The models show zzzzzz in terms of precip for the foreseeable future. That’s actually good news for quality ice formation on the lake. My hockey rink last year was garbage because it snowed right after the lake froze over. Hoping for better results this year.

[GDR]

Thanksgiving could be slipping and sliding!!!

[OKwx2k4]

I'm dreaming of a white Thanksgiving.

[jaster220]

While it is a statement, I just have a gut feeling. I don't want to sound cocky but I swear my gut predictions have been really accurate when it comes to this lol so I think it'll happen! Thanksgiving has treated Chicago well in past years, I remember a snowstorm as a youngster in 2004 I think? And ever since then it always seems that they get snow around that time of year. I think there will be something in the Midwest. I truly believe us out here in the Plains we don't get a drop of precip until December.

 

Well, I've no prob personally with gut feelings, hunches based on experience, etc. so let's run wit-it!  And, I wouldn't give up on Nov precip on d7 - just sayin you may wanna give it a minute..

[VMB443]

Liking this.