November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[St Paul Storm]

ORD is reporting -SN with a record tying low temp of 18F!  #Winter has arrived...I have some flurries flying as we speak and I wasn't expecting anything yet till later this morning.  So, officially (in my book), I've seen my first flakes!

 

You’re on the board! Congrats.

[Madtown]

MKE mentioning the potential for snow storm next Fri?

[Grizzcoat]

-13F at 11:59pm 11/9 at I-falls. This breaks the old minimum record for 11/9 of 0F last set in 1979 by 13F!!! It also falls just one day short of the -13F on 11/8/2003 of being the earliest temp reported in the negative teens at I-Falls. 11/10 AM low should (need -14F) be the coldest temp ever recorded so early in I-FALLS in recorded history which begun in March of 1895.

Won't officially find out until 18Z when the 6 hourly max/min are coded in the metar, but it looks like I-Falls hit -15F but I have seen (first hand) these 5 minute reports be off.

[St Paul Storm]

Eau Claire set a new record low of 3°. The urban heat island that is MSP officially went down to 12° which also set a record. That’s the first record low tied or broken here since April 15, 2014.

[VMB443]

MKE mentioning the potential for snow storm next Fri?

I saw that too - I wouldn't mind it!

[Grizzcoat]

Eau Claire set a new record low of 3°. The urban heat island that is MSP officially went down to 12° which also set a record. That’s the first record low tied or broken here since April 15, 2014.

Edit-- I got it. Your talking about 11/9.  11/10 record in MSP is 3F in 1986.

 

Pretty sure KMSP hit 11F. (for 11/10)

 

KMSP 101153Z 12009KT 10SM OVC200 M11/M17 A3060 RMK AO2 SLP382 T11111172 11111 21117 51001

 

The "2" group is min temp in the last 6 hours which is -11.7C = 11F

[Tom]

Alright, alright, alright...

 

I promised I'd put together a post this week regarding the harmonics I'm seeing in this developing LRC and I apologize up front for the long post. So, lets dive in and I'll try to explain the cycling pattern since the beginning of October where I've already seen similar systems/patterns cycling and continue to cycle. Keep in mind, not every system "acts" or "behaves" in a identical way in future cycles or "mini" cycles. That's just not how nature works as this is not an exact science anyway. However, I will argue that if we can spot a cycle, we can use it as a very important tool to better predict future patterns/storms.

 

With that being said, I’ll start off by showing maps of the first moment where I noticed a "similar" pattern last weekend that we already saw back in early October. This is a 30-day harmonic cycle I'm seeing and it so happens that these systems also will coincidentally repeat during the anticipated 45 day(ish) LRC.

 

During Oct 6th-7th, we had a 993mb SLP form along a stationary boundary out of SE CO which tracked through C KS/C IA/W. U.P. that produced a heavy rain/severe wx event across the Plains/Midwest. Now, look what happened on November 5th-6th...we had a similar situation, although, the main energy tracked farther north into S C.A., however, we didn have a severe wx out break that developed in the S Midwest/OV region.

 

 

 

 

 

Back on Oct 9th-11th, we saw a strong HP diving south of the leeward side of the Rockies as a SLP formed in CO and tracked SE into the TX Panhandle, E OK, w/ a Banana HP to the north. This system eventually tracked into W AR/STL/N IL/N OH. This was a widespread heavy rain producer. Did this produce the same result 30 days later? No, but it did come very close to showing a "similar" pattern but not necessarily the same result. Maybe for the next 30- day cycle it will. Keep that thought in the back of your mind when I show you these systems as each "mini" cycle may over produce or not in each future cycle.

 

This is what happened earlier this week which fits the above pattern...Strong HP knifing down the Rockies, weak SLP forms out of CO and tracks similarily thru AR but bc it was weak and lack of any blocking upstream it did not cut NE towards the Lower Lakes (as in the previous mini cycle).

 

 

 

 

 

Moving along, on Oct 13th-15th we had a frontal boundary draped across our sub forum as multiple waves of energy formed along it and a weak 1008mb SLP formed in CO on the 14th and tracked through C KS/E IA/S WI/N MI into a 997mb storm. Will this happen again? Well, not necessarily, but a similar pattern is about to evolve on Nov 11th but this system is much weaker this go-around.

 

See below the 00z GFS forecast...similar positioning of a system in CO and tracks almost due west/east across our sub forum...

 

 

 

 

 

Now, this is where the LRC gets fascinating and stronger signals are showing up. The next Big storm system forecasted to effect our northern posters later this weekend is a similar storm that targeted Saskatchewan, Canada with powerful record setting wind storm back on Oct 17th. See https://globalnews.ca/news/3808736/saskatoon-weather-outlook-forecast-wind-warning-storm-gusts-environment-canada/

 

This time, there is much more blocking around that will influence the track of this storm system, but the strength seems very similar and might be bc we are now seeing Winter settling in and influencing the strength of the jet as the pattern could become explosive. 00z GEFS are continuing to suggest some powerful ensemble members in the 970's...key here is: Powerful storm, similar northerly track and slow mover...

 

 

 

 

 

Finally, where do we go from here??? Well, it was the late October pattern where we saw a GOMEX/Texarkana type of storm track back on Oct 22nd-25th. Are the models showing this potential...simple answer...YES! Now, more importantly, this storm also fits the beginning of this year's LRC when we had the Oct 6th-7th strong CO LOW, the similar storm I spoke about in the beginning of this post. Call me crazy, but this stuff is just so fascinating and I hope it makes sense to you or maybe it doesn't. To me, I have become more intrigued how the weather works and how it cycles regularly. Every cycle produces a different, but similar pattern, so as we get deeper into Winter, expect to see similar patterns with different results as blocking will influence these storm systems.

 

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

A GUIDE TO WHY NEBRASKANS COMPLAIN even though it's November.

 

Since 2011-2012, every major storm besides a clipper in 2015 has either dry slotted in Lincoln or has completely missed us. Now here's a couple views of the 00z GFS showing next Thursday.

 

 

 

 

As you can see, this has rain forming to our South and moving Northeast, scraping us here in Lincoln with light rain but not much more. Meanwhile, you can see a nice area of heavy snow to our West which dies once it enters the state. Now, this scenario wouldn't be a big deal if:

 

A) Every model hasn't shown this for every storm since mid-October

 

And

 

B ) This hasn't been the general crap that's happened here since our 2009-2010 miracle season. 

 

Every near-average season that we have had since then has been due to light 1" shortwaves.

[Minny_Weather]

Tom, I look forward to your posts every morning.

[Niko]

ORD is reporting -SN with a record tying low temp of 18F!  #Winter has arrived...I have some flurries flying as we speak and I wasn't expecting anything yet till later this morning.  So, officially (in my book), I've seen my first flakes!  

Congrats on your first flakes Tom!

[Niko]

It is mighty cold outside w a current reading of 19F. Winds have subsided some, but still a bit breezy. Patches of snow on rooftops, cartops, grassy surfaces along w mean, looking dark angry, wintry clouds in the far distance of a deep blue sky. Not getting outta the 20s for highs today. Brrr! I'd say....Winter has arrived and paying a visit to give us a heads-up of whats coming this upcoming season.

[james1976]

Very nice post Tom! And I agree its very fascinating to see the cycling. That Nov 22ish storm has potential for some us. And its right before Thanksgiving.

Although 6z GFS has it going up the EC.

[Tom]

Tom, I look forward to your posts every morning.

Thanks bud!  I really appreciate it.  This reason right there is why I enjoy coming on here every day and try to contribute something of value.

[Tom]

Alright Chitown, get ready for some snow squalls!  Knocking on the door baby...

 

 

[Niko]

Alright Chitown, get ready for some snow squalls!  Knocking on the door baby...

Tom, is that verga or is it reaching the ground? That looks impressive!

[Niko]

Just saw my Thanksgiving forecast and it has unsettle weather for my area in that timeframe. Could be a wild week!

[Niko]

@ Jaster, did ya get any squalls yesterday? I sure did!

[Tom]

Tom, is that verga or is it reaching the ground? That looks impressive!

The stuff out by me is very light and reaching the ground.  Clouds are broken with sunshine peaking through along with some flurry action, feels like mid winter out there!

[Tom]

Is this a coincidence, or not, even if its not...it is quite interesting....Solar geomagnetic index tanking to lows we have not seen before over the last 12months...(if your a trader, this would signal it's time to "sell, sell, sell")  All of a sudden, high latitude blocking is growing to levels we have not seen in many years!

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

 

 

AO index dipping to -5....maybe -6????

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

[Tom]

00z Euro suggesting more snows this run for next weekend across parts of the Upper MW/Midwest/Lakes...big time cyclone spinning near the Lakes...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017111000/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_240.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017111000/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_240.png

[Tom]

LES already coating the ground in downtown Chi...from the lives shots on TV, the snow is coming down pretty good and dropping visibility to only a few blocks.

 

Meantime, 12z NAM 3km with more snow for IA/IL/WI????  Prob over done over maybe more of a mix situation...

 

 

 

 

12z NAM...

 

[St Paul Storm]

Edit-- I got it. Your talking about 11/9.  11/10 record in MSP is 3F in 1986.

 

Pretty sure KMSP hit 11F. (for 11/10)

 

KMSP 101153Z 12009KT 10SM OVC200 M11/M17 A3060 RMK AO2 SLP382 T11111172 11111 21117 51001

 

The "2" group is min temp in the last 6 hours which is -11.7C = 11F

My post was referring to 11/9.

[Jaycee]

00z Euro suggesting more snows this run for next weekend across parts of the Upper MW/Midwest/Lakes...big time cyclone spinning near the Lakes...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017111000/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_240.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017111000/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_240.png

 

 

 

 

 

http://gifimage.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/i-dont-know-what-i-expected-gif-10.gif

[Tom]

One of my friends took this pic from her high rise condo near the Gold Coast...

 

 

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

^ nice pic!

[Tom]

Heavy snow about to move into Wrigley Field!

 

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/wrigleyfield/?cam=wrigleyfield_hd

[Tom]

Michigan Ave looks like a whiteout...this band is heading due west towards my place.  Not expecting it to be as heavy, but hoping for the best.

 

[jaster220]

Here's something fun to think about even though I don't believe an ounce of it. My friend who lives in Geneseo, IL just said that there's someone at his school who said that the first snow there will be December 15. He claims that he knows because of the animals or something. Apparently he's been spot on the past 3 years.

 

 

 An exact 1st date of snowfall? From the critters? LOL  While I'm a firm believer in nature's signs, he must be talking with an escaped parrot or something to be getting that info.    Gonna go out on a limb here with the squirrels and say he'll bust this year. No way it takes til mid-Dec for that area to get first flakes. 

 

It's conceivable there will be some lolipop 18"+ totals across the U.P.  I bet its puking snow up there tonight.  Closer to home, I'm guessing N IN get lucky to see some spots get a quick 2-3" if this lake plume takes shape.

 

Highest I've seen so far was 14" - but could be some later updates. Still nice event 

 

I agree. This is my forecast to a T. 1917, 1978, and 2000 looking good and were chosen as analogs for this type of weather pattern.

 

Yeah, and for SWMI, I'd have to include 81-82 for the combo of cold and snow. It's interesting that season came 4 yrs after 77-78, much like this is coming 4 yrs after 13-14. Battle Creek just to my west had a long winter and some really nice depths in 81-82, even better than 13-14! 

 

 

 

 

ORD is reporting -SN with a record tying low temp of 18F!  #Winter has arrived...I have some flurries flying as we speak and I wasn't expecting anything yet till later this morning.  So, officially (in my book), I've seen my first flakes! 

 

Congrats Amigo! and may you see many many more thru the season! 

 

@ Jaster, did ya get any squalls yesterday? I sure did!

 

Congrats ova there buddy! I saw some light showery stuff last evening, and stepped out this morning to a "deck dusting". Would be a "T" in the records, but I don't bother with those tbh. 1/2 an inch here at work with icy roads the last 10 miles to work #winter's here! Snow, green grass, green leafs = gotta love it 

[james1976]

Nice pics Tom. Good luck with the LES action! Winter is here.

[james1976]

GFS trying to develop a band of precip along highway 20 corridor Saturday night. Does anyone know what the thermals look like?

[Andrew NE]

Michigan Ave looks like a whiteout...this band is heading due west towards my place.  Not expecting it to be as heavy, but hoping for the best.

 

Awesome picture!

[Hawkeye]

We bottomed out at about 18 this morning due to clouds.

[jaster220]

Michigan Ave looks like a whiteout...this band is heading due west towards my place.  Not expecting it to be as heavy, but hoping for the best.

 

 

Wow Tom, you really got an over-performer on your hands. Great sign that this will be the polar opposite (get it?) of last winter for Chicago. Makes for great TWC footage as well.    Jingle bells...jingle bells   Get those lights asap

[jaster220]

@ Euro snowfall maps Tom posted above

 

 Now we're talkin! Almost the entire WMI snowbelts in the 6-12" purples. Add winds, and well, you get the drift(s)..hahaha am I just full of #winter puns today or what?

 

CPC issuing early today, and giving us winds only with the +SN confined way north. Have to see as we get closer if they will include any other areas further south?

 

 

[Tom]

Mid-January looking scene on the I-90/94...wash, rinse, repeat this Winter???

 

[james1976]

That was a heck of a GFS run. Dang!

[Tom]

I'm at the back edge of the lake band and getting a my first light accumulating snow along with the very cold temps...ahhh!  Just enough to put me in the holiday/winter mood..so ready to track the next winter storm!

[NEJeremy]

That was a heck of a GFS run. Dang!

If you live in Nebraska don't bother looking  ( I did BTW).

[bud2380]

Just beyond the 240 hour time frame here. 

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017111012/264/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

[Tom]

Meso Low looks like it is spinning just offshore and this feature actually pushed the snow band farther inland to provide me with a lucky light accumulating snowfall.