November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[SilverFallsAndrew]

41 with light rain here. 42/35 so far today. It will be at least a couple weeks before we have our first snow. 

[HighlandExperience]

Everett is reporting light snow at 3PM with a 36 temp and 34 dewpoint.

No that’s just wet dark gooomy rain

[seattleweatherguy]

Everett is reporting light snow at 3PM with a 36 temp and 34 dewpoint.

That's probably good news for us.

[DareDuck]

41 with light rain here. 42/35 so far today. It will be at least a couple weeks before we have our first snow.

43/18 with partly cloudy skies here today. Just hoping for a dusting tomorrow morning at this point.

[Karl Bonner]

Well we have cool air in place for Monday-Tuesday.  Now all we gotta do is get the Wednesday low to tighten up and swing southeastward more definitively. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

43/18 with partly cloudy skies here today. Just hoping for a dusting tomorrow morning at this point.

 

I was over there last weekend, it was about 20 degrees warmer!

[snow_wizard]

The NWS seems to have a very good handle on things.  They have the snow level over the EPS lowlands being higher than Seattle tonight, but indicate the level plunging to the surface tomorrow morning with accumulations to 2 inches.

[TT-SEA]

No that’s just wet dark gooomy rain

 

Sure looks like it... but its probably a winter wonderland in reality.   

 

[bainbridgekid]

I was over there last weekend, it was about 20 degrees warmer!

I was sun tanning in my yard a week ago today.

 

Pretty unusual to see things flip this dramatically around here.

[MossMan]

Everett is reporting light snow at 3PM with a 36 temp and 34 dewpoint.

We have dropped 2 degrees over the last hour from 37 to 35 here at my place. Currently cloudy and dry.

[Geos]

Everett is reporting light snow at 3PM with a 36 temp and 34 dewpoint.

 

The column must be cooler up that way. 

 

Nothing falling here right now.

[MossMan]

Looks like it has been snowing off and on at Pullman today watching the Cougar game.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Go Cougs!

[snow_wizard]

We have dropped 2 degrees over the last hour from 37 to 35 here at my place. Currently cloudy and dry.

 

That far north you might have a shot at avoiding rain.  Tough call.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What model is actually calling for lowland snow? Seems like yesterday was actually the real show.

[Geos]

We have dropped 2 degrees over the last hour from 37 to 35 here at my place. Currently cloudy and dry.

 

What's your elevation?

 

Looks like winds are more easterly by you.

[HighlandExperience]

[MossMan]

What's your elevation?

 

Looks like winds are more easterly by you.

I’m at 300 feet.

 

And I just checked and indeed I have an easterly breeze at the moment.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Geos]

18z RGEM

 

[wxmet]

Low is further south on the GFS 18z result in cooler conditions closer to the surface especially with wet-bulbing. Also has increased the winds from the North  at 950mb from 20 to 25 knots which should help with the CAA. 

 

[HighlandExperience]

 

Low is further south on the GFS 18z result in cooler conditions closer to the surface especially with wet-bulbing. Also has increased the winds from the North at 950mb from 20 to 25 knots which should help with the CAA.

 

Thanks. Yea the 18z brings the low in right over Astoria. That is better.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah that northerly flow is going to be very helpful. 

[Phil]

FWIW, a family member of mine (in Everett) texted me and said it's snowing.

[wxmet]

Key thing to watch for overnight from the NWS discussion:

 

"If strong northerly flow develops from

the surface up to 800 mb as some models suggest, an isothermal
profile should drag snow levels down to 500 feet or lower."

[Geos]

Looks like a sweet spot.

 

[snow_wizard]

 

I don't think I've ever seen the NAM anywhere near right about these things.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a sweet spot.

 

 

For my area I do better when the low is straight S and SE of me like it will be late tonight and tomorrow morning.

[snow_wizard]

I’m at 300 feet.

 

And I just checked and indeed I have an easterly breeze at the moment.

 

I have a bit an easterly breeze here also.  The temp has dropped from 39 to 38.

[Geos]

FWIW, a family member of mine (in Everett) texted me and said it's snowing.

 

Yeah it's just cold enough to have some flakes to mix down from time to time here. Should start cooling further now. Dry atm

[snow_wizard]

Looks like SEA is going to tie the record low max for the day after breaking the record yesterday.  Kind of interesting to note all of the record low max temps this time of year are really old ones (pre 1975).

[wxmet]

Looks good so far.

 

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_3pres.gif

[snow_wizard]

Yeah it's just cold enough to have some flakes to mix down from time to time here. Should start cooling further now. Dry atm

 

The models do show a brief period of warming 850mb and 925mb temps this evening.  Well have to see how it plays out.  At any rate we get good CAA late tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jim, how much snow do you think you'll get?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 39 now with some sunbreaks for the first time all day. 

[bainbridgekid]

Yeah it's just cold enough to have some flakes to mix down from time to time here. Should start cooling further now. Dry atm

I wouldn't expect things to really start cooling off till closer to midnight. Probbaly mainly steady in the mid-upper 30's till then.

 

It always takes quite a while for winds to really turn Northerly in these setups. Doesn't usually happen till the low moves East enough to be about due South of us.

[TT-SEA]

I wouldn't expect things to really start cooling off till closer to midnight. Probbaly mainly steady in the mid-upper 30's till then.

 

It always takes quite a while for winds to really turn Northerly in these setups. Doesn't usually happen till the low moves East enough to be about due South of us.

 

That will not happen until tomorrow morning.

 

HRRR is pretty sparse with precip tomorrow morning... looks very light.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That will not happen until tomorrow morning.

 

HRRR is pretty sparse with precip tomorrow morning... looks very light.

 

 

3KM NAM very similar. 

[wxmet]

I've found the HRRR to be terrible more than a few hours out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I could see Jim's area seeing some light accumulations.