PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[joelgombiner]

This study (led by a UW professor) explicitly addressed the question of whether centennial glacier retreat is categorical evidence of global climate change, given that glaciers do fluctuate naturally. They found that mountain glacier retreat provide some of the strongest evidence that climate change is occurring. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2863

[lowlandsnow]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I looked it up. It looks like that glacier is near or on Glacier Peak, which is probably why they didn’t include it.

They must consider it part of glacier peak rather than it being on the Kololo peaks

Honeycomb Glacier (Washington) - Wikipedia

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

They must consider it part of glacier peak rather than it being on the Kololo peaks

Honeycomb Glacier (Washington) - Wikipedia

It looks like that area is a high ridgeline that extends SE from the summit of Glacier Peak proper, so I can see why they’d lump them together. Mount Daniel/Mount Hinman are in a different geographical area completely, in the Alpine Lakes between US 2 and I-90.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’ve been up to the Athabaska glacier in the Columbia ice fields. It’s shocking how far they have receded in recent decades.  It’s losing 15-20feet of thickness per year currently 

I saw that one in the 1990’s then about 6 years later in the early 2000’s and it was astounding how far it had retreated.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Holding at 36 here with gusty east winds.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It looks like that area is a high ridgeline that extends SE from the summit of Glacier Peak proper, so I can see why they’d lump them together. Mount Daniel/Mount Hinman are in a different geographical area completely, in the Alpine Lakes between US 2 and I-90.

Actually went for a nice backpacking trip in that area in September 2007. Over from the upper Cle Elum river up to Cathedral Pass, then down to Surprise Lakes which is right across the Foss River Valley Daniel/Hinman. Great winter for glacial growth followed.

[joelgombiner]

When I was teaching the lab for Glaciers and Global Change at UW, I designed an activity where we looked at climate model output and estimated future glacier changes for the Pacific Northwest. All models showed that Cascades and Coast Mountains glaciers would shrink due to increased summer melting and increasing fraction of winter precipitation falling as rain on glaciers, but many models showed that Rocky Mountain glaciers could stabilize or even grow due to increased winter precipitation, with temperatures remaining cold enough for all snow even under a much warmer climate. This was just an activity and not a formal study, so take it with a grain of salt. Formal studies for Rocky Mountain glaciers exist as well, e.g. https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/53/2/131/254976  

[TT-SEA]

Control run looks pretty interesting by day 11 and 12.

[joelgombiner]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Actually went for a nice backpacking trip in that area in September 2007. Over from the upper Cle Elum river up to Cathedral Pass, then down to Surprise Lakes which is right across the Foss River Valley Daniel/Hinman. Great winter for glacial growth followed.

Awesome area for backpacking. Lake Ivanhoe is one of my favorite places on earth. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Awesome area for backpacking. Lake Ivanhoe is one of my favorite places on earth. 

Tuck and Robin Lakes are gorgeous as well.

 

I don’t take credit for this photo, but the peak across the way there is the Daniel/Hinman complex, where the glacier was.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12Z Euro has flurries Tuesday and a dusting Wednesday IMBY.

[snow_wizard]

For those keeping score at home 850s ended up verifying at -8 (GFS), or -9 (ECMWF) over SEA.  The GFS was too warm.

[snow maniac]

That NE wind is really ripping here, just watched one of my dock pilings break off !!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Tuck and Robin Lakes are gorgeous as well.

 

I don’t take credit for this photo, but the peak across the way there is the Daniel/Hinman complex, where the glacier was.

That is drop dead gorgeous.  I know that Hinman, Daniel, and Chikamin Peak are all pretty impressive.  Just blows my mind these are within 35 or 40 miles of my house.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For those keeping score at home 850s ended up verifying at -8 (GFS), or -9 (ECMWF) over SEA.  The GFS was too warm.

Sounding at SLE shows -7.9 now. Not bad

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Holy shitt the DP is down to 11F? What the fuckk? With it being 41F you wouldn't have really guessed. Weird day but it sure is nice to have the sun as well as much cooler temps than Jun-Sept.

[snow_wizard]

Cold outflow winds are keeping the temps in check today.  Both SEA and PDX have shown little movement in the last couple of hours.

[Cold Snap]

Currently 35.8 after a low of 24. That’s pretty good for recent January standards. That’s actually colder than it ever got during Jan 2020 for me as I didn’t go below 25 during that. But that of course had a lot of snow for me with it and there was a lot of cloud cover during that as well.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Holy shitt the DP is down to 11F? What the fuckk? With it being 41F you wouldn't have really guessed. Weird day but it sure is nice to have the sun as well as much cooler temps than Jun-Sept.

Going to be some really nice mins tonight in some places.  Winds are supposed to quit for most areas pretty early on.  Nice to see this actually happen in January.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Holy shitt the DP is down to 11F? What the fuckk? With it being 41F you wouldn't have really guessed. Weird day but it sure is nice to have the sun as well as much cooler temps than Jun-Sept.

I’m seeing 38 at the official station down there. A degree cooler than PDX (lol). Pretty impressive. Holding at 37 here. Hopefully just a couple more hours of warming to go.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Cold outflow winds are keeping the temps in check today.  Both SEA and PDX have shown little movement in the last couple of hours.

 38 at SEA... appears there might not be a sub-40 day with this event.     But could happen tomorrow with a colder start.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Holy shitt the DP is down to 11F? What the fuckk? With it being 41F you wouldn't have really guessed. Weird day but it sure is nice to have the sun as well as much cooler temps than Jun-Sept.

Pity there’s no moisture to work with. Even if it briefly started as rain, it would end up snowing and in the mid-20’s soon enough.

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For those keeping score at home 850s ended up verifying at -8 (GFS), or -9 (ECMWF) over SEA.  The GFS was too warm.

Also the ECMWF showed 850mb temp bottoming out at -11C over SEA just yesterday so it was too cold in the lead up.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m seeing 38 at the official station down there. A degree cooler than PDX (lol). Pretty impressive. Holding at 37 here. Hopefully just a couple more hours of warming to go.

You were holding at 36 a few minutes ago and now you’re holding at 37?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

33.1˚F. Don’t think it will be cracking the big four-oh here today.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Not too bad.

[Cascadia_Wx]

It’s been mentioned by others but it would be pretty nice to enter a reasonably wet pattern at some point. We are starting to fall pretty far behind for the year to date.

[umadbro]

Uh oh, the real Jesse is slowly returning.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, umadbro said:

Uh oh, the real Jesse is slowly returning.

Get anything measurable from your snow flurries last night?

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This is a good point. The volume of pre-eruption glacial ice on St Helens won’t be approached by the new glacier.

Surprisingly the Crater Glacier may currently exceed the volume of pre-eruption glacial ice on the mountain. As of 2001 the volume was 50% that of the original glaciers and in the last two decades the glacier has continued to grow. I couldn't find a recent estimate for the glacier's volume, but I would assume it's now 75% or more of the original glaciers (assuming a slowing of the glacier's growth).

Of course, if you made a big enough crater (or hole) at a high enough elevation anywhere in the Cascades you could grow some truly giant glaciers. The trick is just keeping them shaded during the summer and able to collect snow during the winter.

[TT-SEA]

Really nice signal at the end of the 12Z EPS.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Surprisingly the Crater Glacier may currently exceed the volume of pre-eruption glacial ice on the mountain. As of 2001 the volume was 50% that of the original glaciers and in the last two decades the glacier has continued to grow. I couldn't find a recent estimate for the glacier's volume, but I would assume it's now 75% or more of the original glaciers (assuming a slowing of the glacier's growth).

Of course, if you made a big enough crater (or hole) at a high enough elevation anywhere in the Cascades you could grow some truly giant glaciers. The trick is just keeping them shaded during the summer and able to collect snow during the winter.

I was second guessing myself after making that post. It’s tough to find hard numbers though, as you said.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not too bad.

Andrew special!

[MossMan]

Lovely spring day! Even have the front door open for more light. Guess I should take the wreath down. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Snowpiles from last night off my car

[umadbro]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Get anything measurable from your snow flurries last night?

There he is.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Snowpiles from last night off my car

Quick get it in your freezer!!! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, umadbro said:

There he is.

It was a real question. Looked like it was coming down decent in your video. 

[MossMan]

Currently 36.7 with a DP of 18. 
Temp had spiked up to 39 a bit ago but has been on the steady decline since. Should be a chilly night coming up.