PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Really gotta disagree there. Chicago has only had 13.7" of snow with little or none in sight. They're pretty far from either northern corner of the county. And the Plains south of Nebraska haven't done well at all. Wichita is sitting at 3.9" of snow and Kansas City is at 4.7". With a historically warm midwinter stretch.

The northernmost regions of the Midwest that aren't reliant on cold air availability at all have done well with the poleward-skewing storm track. Ditto for some of the high elevation areas in the Intermountain West. Otherwise it's been a warm and forgettable winter for most of the country, with a mild February looking increasingly likely.

I’m bullish on a -2F February departure for the willamette valley, and 0” of snow at the three major airport locations. 

[Blizzard777]

Currently 27.8 with a high of 40* 

I definitely got out today to take in the sun 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m bullish on a -2F February departure for the willamette valley, and 0” of snow at the three major airport locations. 

I’m bullish on scoring at least 1 mm of snow this week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m bullish on scoring at least 1 mm of snow this week.

Thrilling 

[Deweydog]

Jesse???

 

[MossMan]

Temp bouncing around. Was 26.8 about 40min ago, but now I’m sitting at 28.2. 
 

[Cold Snap]

Down to 27.8.

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

And before this winter is over we will get an 18" storm while PDX and Seatac get a skiff.

You guys have "FUKKWINTERUNLESSITHAPPENSIMBY" syndrome.

You’ve been ranting about all of this “western WA centric” and “imby” crap for days now but nobody’s even doing that at all. Only person bringing it up is you

[Rubus Leucodermis]

26.4˚F.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23 at Silver Falls. Gunna be coldest night of the winter.

[Doinko]

Down to 33 at PDX with a DP of 6. Hoping they somehow overperform and manage a low in the teens

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

You’ve been ranting about all of this “western WA centric” and “imby” crap for days now but nobody’s even doing that at all. Only person bringing it up is you

I think he has had a busy weekend… 

[Kayla]

59 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Really gotta disagree there. Chicago has only had 13.7" of snow with little or none in sight. They're pretty far from either northern corner of the county. And the Plains south of Nebraska haven't done well at all. Wichita is sitting at 3.9" of snow and Kansas City is at 4.7". With a historically warm midwinter stretch.

The northernmost regions of the Midwest that aren't reliant on cold air availability at all have done well with the poleward-skewing storm track. Ditto for some of the high elevation areas in the Intermountain West. Otherwise it's been a warm and forgettable winter for most of the country, with a mild February looking increasingly likely.

You know just as well as I that it's rare (and getting more rare) for coast to coast cold/snow. Writing was on the wall for the northern tier to see a decent winter which is what we are seeing. To also see the SW score along with the Intermountain region has been a huge bonus which makes this winter a win IMO.

[westcoastexpat]

HRRR seems to be nailing temps tonight. Would be surprised to see many stations go into the teens - likely low to mid 20s for most. Ah well, another January in the trash.

February will probably end up below normal but snow chances seem low and probably more boring quick hitters like this one.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

00Z GFS has trended snowier. (At least IMBY. Sorry MossMan.)

[Kayla]

While looking at climate data (thanks BLI!) and I just noticed that Bozeman saw 147.8" of snowfall in 2022. Third highest yearly snowfall on record. Can thank the very snowy Oct/Nov/Dec for that!

Down to -20F here.

[TT-SEA]

That is an impressively deep trough at the end of the 00Z GFS.    

[Gradient Keeper]

Winter is saved! 00z GFS Day 14-15! You know things are going swell when I'm posting Day 10+ and not Day 1-10. LOOOL

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day Day 1-10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

You know just as well as I that it's rare (and getting more rare) for coast to coast cold/snow. Writing was on the wall for the northern tier to see a decent winter which is what we are seeing. To also see the SW score along with the Intermountain region has been a huge bonus which makes this winter a win IMO.

I think you're a bit clouded being in one of the relatively few areas that has done well. The torching has been almost ubiquitous so far thanks to the historic January (will likely go down as the warmest nationally since 2006). A warm February for the lower 48, which again looks more likely than not at this point, could potentially even put this winter over the top.

And the problem is that the northern tier areas really aren't all doing well either. A lot of the big northern population centers are looking at snowfall deficits, with the Northeast obviously being on the extreme side of things. Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland, Boston, and of course PDX and SEA who haven't exactly scored in that department.

I would say Buffalo, Minneapolis, Denver, and Salt Lake City are the only large metros that have had "good winters" to date by their own standards, be it from snow or cold or both.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

23 here after a high of 36. Solid cold Day.

Bremerton 21.

Olympia 21.

 

[MossMan]

Back down to 26.9

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Back down to 26.9

26.1˚F here. It’s a race!

[Kayla]

21 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think you're a bit clouded being in one of the relatively few areas that has done well. The torching has been almost ubiquitous so far thanks to the historic January (will likely go down as the warmest nationally since 2006). A warm February for the lower 48, which again looks more likely than not at this point, could potentially even put this winter over the top.

And the problem is that the northern tier areas really aren't all doing well either. A lot of the big northern population centers are looking at snowfall deficits, with the Northeast obviously being on the extreme side of things. Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland, Boston, and of course PDX and SEA who haven't exactly scored in that department.

I would say Buffalo, Minneapolis, Denver, and Salt Lake City are the only large metros that have had "good winters" to date by their own standards, be it from snow or cold or both.

I can say the reverse about you! You keep referencing the midwest region when I never said anywhere that they are having a good winter.

MSP, FSD, DEN, SLC all fit within the area that I've been saying that have done well. Throw in places like RNO, TVL, FLG and you have a very large area of the US that is seeing a very decent winter. The areas seeing it are where we needed it most which makes it an even bigger win. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I can say the reverse about you! You keep referencing the midwest region when I never said anywhere that they are having a good winter.

MSP, FSD, DEN, SLC all fit within the area that I've been saying that have done well. Throw in places like RNO, TVL, FLG and you have a very large area of the US that is seeing a very decent winter. 

Speaking of MSP... I found this to be an interesting tidbit. 

[snow_wizard]

24 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think you're a bit clouded being in one of the relatively few areas that has done well. The torching has been almost ubiquitous so far thanks to the historic January (will likely go down as the warmest nationally since 2006). A warm February for the lower 48, which again looks more likely than not at this point, could potentially even put this winter over the top.

And the problem is that the northern tier areas really aren't all doing well either. A lot of the big northern population centers are looking at snowfall deficits, with the Northeast obviously being on the extreme side of things. Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland, Boston, and of course PDX and SEA who haven't exactly scored in that department.

I would say Buffalo, Minneapolis, Denver, and Salt Lake City are the only large metros that have had "good winters" to date by their own standards, be it from snow or cold or both.

SEA actually hasn't done too bad to date, and a lot of places in WA and OR had a pretty historic Nov and Dec.  It hasn't been as bad as you're saying for the NW.  No doubt many places east of the Rockies have been an epic torch though.

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

26.1˚F here. It’s a race!

26.4 now! 

[snow_wizard]

45 minutes ago, Kayla said:

You know just as well as I that it's rare (and getting more rare) for coast to coast cold/snow. Writing was on the wall for the northern tier to see a decent winter which is what we are seeing. To also see the SW score along with the Intermountain region has been a huge bonus which makes this winter a win IMO.

We had a coast to coast cold wave in December in spite of the winter being warm overall for the country.

[Gradient Keeper]

28.6 with breezy east wind.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

26.4 now! 

25.7˚F!

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The Camp Muir sensor is reporting tonight.  8 degrees dp -33 with 52 mph winds.  Pretty harsh!  

anybody live up there?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

anybody live up there?

Not permanently. It’s a climber’s hut.

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Not permanently. It’s a climber’s hut.

exactly, its at like 10k feet, that seems like run of the mill mid winter conditions for a place like that

[Phishy Wx]

down to 7 with a WC of 1

[snow_wizard]

Still looking like something could happen in February.  Maybe everyone is giving up on Feb as a head fake or something?

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

anybody live up there?

Probably not.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

exactly, its at like 10k feet, that seems like run of the mill mid winter conditions for a place like that

I was referring to the -33 dp and the wind.  No need to be so snarky.  I know you get bent out of shape with people who don't buy the global warming is entirely man caused narrative.

[MossMan]

21 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

25.7˚F!

26.0

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

26.0

25.3˚F now.