PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Omegaraptor]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am sure March and April will be non-stop storms and mountain snow.   

If it goes on and on like last spring again I may have to make a trip to southern Oregon. Been a while.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Cheer up, Day 13 of the Druncle is shaping up! Obviously it's a lock, it's coming, and it's a MBG!

Gonna be a long week

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Gonna be a long week

Yep, and not for the reasons we'd hope for. Ah well at least we'll see more sun than rain. I think. Fairly sure. I think.

00z GFS in 4 hours 29 minutes

[NWbyNW]

Beautiful day, very cool.  Was 33F at 10am.  Currently at 39F under clear skies and sunshine.  I spotted this fellow out in my backyard.  

 

 

Don't see him?  Here, let's try again.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

But Wait....
....There's MORE!

[Deweydog]

Negativity at Larch!

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=TR951

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, NWbyNW said:

Beautiful day, very cool.  Was 33F at 10am.  Currently at 39F under clear skies and sunshine.  I spotted this fellow out in my backyard.  

 

 

Don't see him?  Here, let's try again.

 

 

Now that's a score! Majestic sight. That right there improves the day. Every single time.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Negativity at Larch!

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=TR951

[Cascadia_Wx]

High of 37 here so far, down to 36 now. Shame PDX hit 40 today. Could have scored all three winter months with sub-40 highs with some chilly weather possible in February. At least other spots might do it, including here.

[Cascadia_Wx]

11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

If it goes on and on like last spring again I may have to make a trip to southern Oregon. Been a while.

Hopefully we will wait ten years again for another cool and wet spring  

[BLI snowman]

56 minutes ago, Phil said:

The precursor patterns were strong in 2017/18, 2018/19, and 2020/21. All culminated a major SSW events that culminated in bonafide “blocking” patterns that redirected RWTs, which is how they delivered in the PNW and elsewhere across the NH.

There is nothing even remotely close to that going forward. To the contrary, the upcoming NH pattern will help strengthen the PV/TPV and lock up the arctic airmass in the high latitudes. Even though it’s a “cool” pattern for the west, it will become progressively less continental (and less cool in general) as the polar airmass gradually retracts. And may eventually end up warm/zonal altogether.

The pattern may grow more favorable for upward wave driving during the second half of February, but that pattern itself is associated with warmth in the PNW/other places. So that pattern, should it manifest, will take at least a couple weeks to knock out the vortex, at which point we will be into March.

Not ready to close the curtain just yet, but it’s getting close.

Assuming that February is toast, this will go down as a pretty warm and abysmal winter overall nationally.

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

But Wait....
....There's MORE!

[snow_wizard]

41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am sure March and April will be non-stop storms and mountain snow.   

Probably so.  I have very mixed feelings on that.  I have gotten to the point where spring is by far my least favorite time of year.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, RentonHill said:

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Assuming that February is toast, this will go down as a pretty warm and abysmal winter overall nationally.

I think Feb has a good shot.  We always knew January would take some serious luck.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

If it goes on and on like last spring again I may have to make a trip to southern Oregon. Been a while.

Apparently a rapidly re-strengthening Nina is the kiss of death for spring... lets avoid that.      

[Phishy Wx]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Really nice signal at the end of the 12Z EPS.

where have I seen this before?

[snow_wizard]

Looks like 38 will be it here today.  Nice solid chill.  It certainly appears there will be some teens tonight.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

Good thunderstorms over here!!!  A high of 16 so far today.  Looks like we will make a run at below zero tonight.

Yeah....the climate over there is so much better.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

where have I seen this before?

And here we are in a cold snap.

[Phishy Wx]

57 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I don't know when this will turn around, but the Washington Cascades are still significantly below average precipitation for every period from the last 7 days to the last 12 months. They're 15-25"+ below normal in the last six months (shown below). Hoping that eventually the storm train returns for Feb-April.

I can smell the wildfire smoke already. gross

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Apparently a rapidly re-strengthening Nina is the kiss of death for spring... lets avoid that.      

I think the best bet for an enjoyable spring and summer might be going to neutral.  That is very much on the table right now.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

I can smell the wildfire smoke already. gross

That map is actually getting close to fulfilling long term drought criteria for the NW 1/4 of WA.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think Feb has a good shot.  We always knew January would take some serious luck.

It may well be a cooler than average month in this region, but that doesn't always mean much. By late February coolish onshore flow can easily give us cold anomalies. After this week there's no signs of another pattern favorable for driving arctic air into the region.

Nationally it's pretty clear that barring a freak March, this will be a very mild and snow deprived winter for almost everywhere.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

And here we are in a cold snap.

garden variety.  has moderated from forecasts 4 or 5 days ago.  started as highs in the mid teens and lows below zero, yet here we are IMBY at 22 after a low last night of 9.  should get a little colder tonight but I doubt it gets much below 5 above IMBY

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Beautiful day, very cool.  Was 33F at 10am.  Currently at 39F under clear skies and sunshine.  I spotted this fellow out in my backyard.  

 

 

Don't see him?  Here, let's try again.

 

 

I was going to post about an eagle I saw here earlier today as well.  It was enjoying soaring with the breeze today.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

garden variety.  has moderated from forecasts 4 or 5 days ago.  started as highs in the mid teens and lows below zero, yet here we are IMBY at 22 after a low last night of 9.  should get a little colder tonight but I doubt it gets much below 5 above IMBY

22/9 is pretty cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I can smell the wildfire smoke already. gross

Root for a lack of Summer convection/t-storms if you don't want raging wildfires. Granted a much smaller % are also started by idiots, negligence, or arsonist psychopaths.

[Doinko]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

It may well be a cooler than average month in this region, but that doesn't always mean much. By late February coolish onshore flow can easily give us cold anomalies. After this week there's no signs of another pattern favorable for driving arctic air into the region.

Nationally it's pretty clear that barring a freak March, this will be a very mild and snow deprived winter for almost everywhere.

Looks like some parts of NE/SD/ND/MN have done well. 

Valentine, NE is having its snowiest cold season up to Jan 28th on record with a total of 52.5" of snow so far
Duluth is having its 5th snowiest cold season to the 28th so far
Minneapolis/Saint Paul is having its 5th snowiest cold season to the 28th so far
Sioux Falls will end up with its 2nd snowiest January on record

Also Buffalo and Grand Rapids did well with their big lake effect snowstorms earlier this winter

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It may well be a cooler than average month in this region, but that doesn't always mean much. By late February coolish onshore flow can easily give us cold anomalies. After this week there's no signs of another pattern favorable for driving arctic air into the region.

Nationally it's pretty clear that barring a freak March, this will be a very mild and snow deprived winter for almost everywhere.

Really hope all measurable precip cuts off in late March, it heats up, and we don’t look back.

[TacomaWx]

39/32 38 now. 10th sub 40 high this season. 

[MossMan]

34.5

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like some parts of NE/SD/ND/MN have done well. 

Valentine, NE is having its snowiest cold season up to Jan 28th on record with a total of 52.5" of snow so far
Duluth is having its 5th snowiest cold season to the 28th so far
Minneapolis/Saint Paul is having its 5th snowiest cold season to the 28th so far
Sioux Falls will end up with its 2nd snowiest January on record

Also Buffalo and Grand Rapids did well with their big lake effect snowstorms earlier this winter

Yeah, the northern-skewed storm track has helped those areas in the northern Plains where there's almost always enough cold air to work with in midwinter. 

This month has been an incredible torch for all but the SW. 

 

[Doinko]

Looks like PDX avoided 40. 39/32 so far maybe they'll record a midnight low

[joelgombiner]

Widespread improvement in drought conditions compared to a year ago. 

 

[Omegaraptor]

45 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like some parts of NE/SD/ND/MN have done well. 

Valentine, NE is having its snowiest cold season up to Jan 28th on record with a total of 52.5" of snow so far
Duluth is having its 5th snowiest cold season to the 28th so far
Minneapolis/Saint Paul is having its 5th snowiest cold season to the 28th so far
Sioux Falls will end up with its 2nd snowiest January on record

Also Buffalo and Grand Rapids did well with their big lake effect snowstorms earlier this winter

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in the northern plains what affects snow totals most is whether they get the moisture/precip at all. Those places are already cold as balls in the winter anyway, but they're also dry winter-wet summer climates. Basically the opposite of our precipitation pattern. Most Januaries at Minneapolis get under 1" of precip, for example.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, NWbyNW said:

Beautiful day, very cool.  Was 33F at 10am.  Currently at 39F under clear skies and sunshine.  I spotted this fellow out in my backyard.  

 

 

Don't see him?  Here, let's try again.

 

 

Nice I snapped this one this afternoon.   I think there’s about 10 in the photo.  There was probably 25-30 where I was this afternoon. 
 

 

[SunAndSnow]

Love these clear sunny days, feels much better than the perpetually grey days we’ve been having. I’d probably be better off moving to the Bend/central OR area for the sun/snow/thunder.

[snow_wizard]

38 minutes ago, MossMan said:

34.5

It looks great for widespread cold mins tonight.  Should be a lot of teens.

[Jbolin]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

But Wait....
....There's MORE!