PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[snow_wizard]

Just now, joelgombiner said:

Beautiful morning. Dry, northerly flow in late January is hard to beat! Especially after the dismal grey we've been having.  

This actually just missed being a really good event.  This 500mb pattern is capable of delivering top drawer cold, but too much of the cold air is wrapped up in the Hudson's Bay vortex right now.

As it is we are still seeing some well below normal temps and some well earned clear skies.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Over/under 45 at PDX today!!?

No way they make it with the east wind.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Sunny, clear windy and 34 after a low of 30. Beautiful day. Will be interested to see how cold we manage to get tonight.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The SSW happened.  See proof that I posted.

Who is saying there was no stratospheric warming?    It just doesn't impact anything in this case because it could not break up the PV.   Sort of a moot point.

[BLI snowman]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It already happened.  This is for the 10mb level for 65N to 90N and it suddenly warmed.

We've been over this Jim. There was not a full zonal wind reversal i.e. destruction of the PV. 

Some warming in the stratosphere  ≠ SSW

[ShawniganLake]

 

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was simply addressing the fact a lot of people don't seem to think it actually happened.  As of now it remains to be seen if it will actually disrupt the 500mb PV or not.

I think you are trying to redefine what Mets consider to be an “SSW event”.  Not every warming event and Strat PV bump is created equal. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Who is saying there was no stratospheric warming?    It just doesn't impact anything in this case because it could not break up the PV.   Sort of a moot point.

It remains to be seen.  Some models actually get rid of the PV over Canada.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Over/under 45 at PDX today!!?

At least they hit 32!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

 

I think you are trying to redefine what Mets consider to be an “SSW event”.  Not every warming event and Strat PV bump is created equal. 

SSW stands for sudden stratospheric warming and the stratosphere suddenly warmed. 

[The Cats Meow]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming. 

Last week we said it was coming and we are being dazzled with highs of 42-44 degrees and beautiful sunshine.  Not exactly what most folks would like.

I'm in the acceptance phase now.  

This winter completely underperformed for what I thought it would be.  A big fat turd it is.

No one gets excited about a low of 30 except Snow Wizard.

Oh hey guys and gals, we've spent 120 days below 55 degrees.  Yay!

[Phishy Wx]

10 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Looks like its still there to me.

how old is that pic?  looks like a snowfield. the copyright date isn't necessarily the photo date. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It remains to be seen.  Some models actually get rid of the PV over Canada.

I am confused... that is not a SSW event.     That would just be a pattern progression at the 500mb level.   That has to happen eventually and might just open the door to more zonal flow for us.  

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At least they hit 32!

 

[Phishy Wx]

9 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Stunning, and that glacier looks to be in good shape.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynch_Glacier

Lynch Glacier lies to the north and northwest of Mount Daniel, in the U.S. state of Washington. Lynch Glacier is within the Alpine Lakes Wilderness of Snoqualmie National Forest.^[2] The glacier is approximately .60 mi (0.97 km) in length, .80 mi (1.29 km) in width at its widest and descends from 7,800 to 6,400 ft (2,400 to 2,000 m), where it terminates above a proglacial lake known as Pea Soup Lake. An arête divides the glacier into an eastern and western lobe, with the western section being the larger.^[2] In the late 1970s, Lynch Glacier extended into Pea Soup Lake; however, repeat photography indicates the glacier has since retreated above the lake.^[3]

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am confused... that is not a SSW event.     That would just be a pattern progression at the 500mb level.   That has to happen eventually and might just open the door to more zonal flow for us.  

I'm thinking we are kind of out of synch on our definitions and expectations of possible implications on this.

[Deweydog]

Gorgeous day!!!

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

SSW stands for sudden stratospheric warming and the stratosphere suddenly warmed. 

I followed fairly closely.  Looked like it might split the PV for awhile there. It failed.  Doesn’t mean it won’t get cold again in a couple or 3 weeks.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Electric motors are incredibly strong and useful in a number of applications.  My main problem is when the government tells me I have to use an electric car.

That won't be for a very VERY long time. 

[Deweydog]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

I followed fairly closely.  Looked like it might split the PV for awhile there. It failed.  Doesn’t mean it won’t get cold again in a couple or 3 weeks.  

It definitely thought about it, but the train ended up never really leaving the station. 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

how old is that pic?  looks like a snowfield. the copyright date isn't necessarily the photo date. 

Could be snow on top of the ice as well.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

This is the Lynch Glacier in 1963. Just a small bit of melting since then (all the ice at the bottom of the image is where the lake is today).

BUt bUT, But.  cycles and stuff

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynch_Glacier

Lynch Glacier lies to the north and northwest of Mount Daniel, in the U.S. state of Washington. Lynch Glacier is within the Alpine Lakes Wilderness of Snoqualmie National Forest.^[2] The glacier is approximately .60 mi (0.97 km) in length, .80 mi (1.29 km) in width at its widest and descends from 7,800 to 6,400 ft (2,400 to 2,000 m), where it terminates above a proglacial lake known as Pea Soup Lake. An arête divides the glacier into an eastern and western lobe, with the western section being the larger.^[2] In the late 1970s, Lynch Glacier extended into Pea Soup Lake; however, repeat photography indicates the glacier has since retreated above the lake.^[3]

I see snow and ice in the picture of it though. Means the glacier is doing great Nothing to see here 

Edited January 29, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynch_Glacier

Lynch Glacier lies to the north and northwest of Mount Daniel, in the U.S. state of Washington. Lynch Glacier is within the Alpine Lakes Wilderness of Snoqualmie National Forest.^[2] The glacier is approximately .60 mi (0.97 km) in length, .80 mi (1.29 km) in width at its widest and descends from 7,800 to 6,400 ft (2,400 to 2,000 m), where it terminates above a proglacial lake known as Pea Soup Lake. An arête divides the glacier into an eastern and western lobe, with the western section being the larger.^[2] In the late 1970s, Lynch Glacier extended into Pea Soup Lake; however, repeat photography indicates the glacier has since retreated above the lake.^[3]

You can tell by the surrounding terrain the thickness hasn't changed much, but it has shortened a bit.

The interesting thing is the 1950s through mid 1970s was very glacier friendly so glaciers were at a very good extent right at that time.  They may have been slightly less in the mid 1940s than they were in late 1970s.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Going to be a nice cool and crispy sunny winter day. Wish we had some snowfall but nevertheless it’s gonna be chilly day with cold east winds.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

BUt bUT, But.  cycles and stuff

You need to think long term on this stuff.  What we have seen in our lifetimes is meaningless in the overall scheme of things.  This is where people get thrown off.  As I've mentioned repeatedly they strongly suspect the glaciers in glacier national park were not there before the little ice age.  Just food for thought.

[Doinko]

Dew point down to 5 degrees at PDX

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

Last week we said it was coming and we are being dazzled with highs of 42-44 degrees and beautiful sunshine.  Not exactly what most folks would like.

I'm in the acceptance phase now.  

This winter completely underperformed for what I thought it would be.  A big fat turd it is.

No one gets excited about a low of 30 except Snow Wizard.

Oh hey guys and gals, we've spent 120 days below 55 degrees.  Yay!

I've said it over and over. If you like real winter weather and a bunch of snow then living anywhere west of the cascade crest will never be a good winter. 6-10 days of snow and cold out of the other 100 days in no way can be called a good winter. This is just personal opinion though because for some winter weather is rain. Rain can happen  any time of year so I do not consider that winter weather. 

[TacomaWx]

36 here and just an absolutely gorgeous day. Took a drive earlier and I noticed our graupel/snow cover is still holding on in the shaded areas here! Last night was an awesome surprise. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I see snow and ice in the picture of it though. Means the glacier is doing great Nothing to see here 

Again.  When have I ever said the Cascade glaciers aren't retreating.  You always put words in my mouth.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow dewpoint is 12 degrees right now!

[Phishy Wx]

I'd imagine these super hot summers (in a 3 year Nina no less) are doing a number on glacial ice in the Cascades.  Just wait until the massive inevitable Nino incoming in the next year or two takes hold.  meltwater city

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I've said it over and over. If you like real winter weather and a bunch of snow then living anywhere west of the cascade crest will never be a good winter. 6-10 days of snow and cold out of the other 100 days in no way can be called a good winter. This is just personal opinion though because for some winter weather is rain. Rain can happen  any time of year so I do not consider that winter weather. 

Sometimes Whatcom County can have a real honest to goodness winter with snow on the ground and cold for weeks at a time.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'd imagine these super hot summers (in a 3 year Nina no less) are doing a number on glacial ice in the Cascades.  Just wait until the massive inevitable Nino incoming in the next year or two takes hold.  meltwater city

The summer thing is just plain weird.  We have seen more warming in the summer than anywhere else on the planet recently.  As you said having such hot summers with a Nina is even stranger.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow dewpoint is 12 degrees right now!

Should be some great mins tonight in places that decouple.

[TacomaWx]

Looks like we had a low of 32 this morning, but we may improve on that low before midnight if I had to guess. 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You need to think long term on this stuff.  What we have seen in our lifetimes is meaningless in the overall scheme of things.  This is where people get thrown off.  As I've mentioned repeatedly they strongly suspect the glaciers in glacier national park were not there before the little ice age.  Just food for thought.

I get it, I also think about the here and now and the damage we're doing by 'turbo charging' and influencing the warming process.  I also get it's a balancing act of sustaining civilization, the global economy etc until cleaner energy is cheaper and more reliable at a large scale. But, we can't continue to belch increasing amounts of carbon into the atmosphere unabated without consequences.  obviously more to the discussion but that's always been my position. 

[SnowWillarrive]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Again.  When have I ever said the Cascade glaciers aren't retreating.  You always put words in my mouth.

To your point a few Cascade glaciers were readvancing in the mid 1970s up until the early 80s (well documented). People would be surprised at how fast glaciers form and advance.  Doesn’t take thousands of years. 
 

Look inside the new glacier on Mount Saint Helen’s crater. It is already 300-500 feet thick and the only glacier rapidly advancing in the lower 48. 
 

[Phishy Wx]

but I digress.

 

got down to 9 last night IMBY

 

should tumble lower tonight with light winds if the clouds stay away

[SnowWillarrive]

Not sure why I got a confused face on my post. The new glacier inside the crater at Mount Saint Helen’s took 40 years to form. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

To your point a few Cascade glaciers were readvancing in the mid 1970s up until the early 80s (well documented). People would be surprised at how fast glaciers form and advance.  Doesn’t take thousands of years. 
 

Look inside the new glacier on Mount Saint Helen’s crater. It is already 300-500 feet thick and the only glacier rapidly advancing in the lower 48. 

the source of the new(er) St Helens one is also in a spot that's shaded/insulated from most of the solar radiation by the new vent cone in the caldera