PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Snowpiles from last night off my car

Quick. Make a crater in your back yard and shade that stuff from the sun. 

[Tyler Mode]

Love these days!

[snow_wizard]

The winds are working out perfectly with this.  Much of last night was clam here which allowed the temp to drop, now it's breezy today which is keeping the temp down, and then it calms down pretty early this evening according to the models.  36/25 so far today.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Love these days!

This month has sure been hard on the snowpack in the Basin.

[Omegaraptor]

37 in Corvallis with a direct north wind.

What a beautiful day! Just exceptionally clear. Wish we got more days like this in the winter.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Lovely spring day! Even have the front door open for more light. Guess I should take the wreath down. 

Door open when it's in the 30s?

[Gradient Keeper]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Really nice signal at the end of the 12Z EPS.

Not bad! C'MON!!!!

00z ECMWF in 9 hours

[snow_wizard]

Pretty easy to see how much different the north half of Central and Eastern WA and the south half are in the winter!

 

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty easy to see how much different the north half of Central and Eastern WA and the south half are in the winter!

 

 

Summer too... that is a basin.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty easy to see how much different the north half of Central and Eastern WA and the south half are in the winter!

 

 

Gets snowy again once you move south out of the Columbia Basin into the highlands of eastern Oregon.

[WeatherGeek2022]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Not bad! C'MON!!!!

00z ECMWF in 9 hours

if nothing materializes then I give up on these dreadful one sided winters in seattle/tacoma/etc.

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Door open when it's in the 30s?

It’s a pretty hardcore storm door so no cold air coming in. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Over/under 45 at PDX today!!?

39˚F as of latest report. Looks like under wins.

[snow_wizard]

Really too bad there wasn't any serious cold air available in BC with this.  Could have easily been a region wide blast.  As it is a decent cold snap, but it could have been much more.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s been mentioned by others but it would be pretty nice to enter a reasonably wet pattern at some point. We are starting to fall pretty far behind for the year to date.

It has been leaning dry.  Sometimes it's hard to notice this time of year since so many days have been dreary anyway.

[TT-SEA]

48 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

37 in Corvallis with a direct north wind.

What a beautiful day! Just exceptionally clear. Wish we got more days like this in the winter.

Green!

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Really nice signal at the end of the 12Z EPS.

Crumbs

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Crumbs

It's only an ensemble mean that is pretty far out.

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Crumbs

Hmmm…

The John Candy classic (eh) Who’s Harry Crumb was released on 2/3/89.

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Hmmm…

The John Candy classic (eh) Who’s Harry Crumb was released on 2/3/89.

Dewey Cox was released in December 2007

[Phil]

14 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I was talking about the 500mb PV.  The SSW is apparently going to disrupt it.

That’s the TPV, and it’s almost always “split” in some manner or another. But of course it’s never good news when it’s fully consolidated over NE-Canada (like it will be next week).

[Phil]

But have to say I’m not liking the trends across guidance of late. After this current brush with arctic cold, there’s a good chance we won’t see any arctic air enter the lower-48 again until sometime in March (IMO).

SSW will fail/PV will restrengthen, with lackluster wave driving thanks to the broad Aleutian High. And no Scandinavian Ridge either. So nothing to prevent a move to full blown +NAM and/or +EPO.

All precursors point to a warm/boring February across the CONUS. Especially in the East, but probably coast to coast.

[TT-SEA]

40 at SEA on the hour.

[MossMan]

Phil just said it’s over. I’m ready for summer anyway. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

A gift for you…

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming
 

You’re not entirely wrong, Jim, although you definitely seem ironically hung up on what is a fairly minor warming episode when compared to an event which results in a reversal (2018, 2019, 2021…). When you were upset with people earlier this month for putting too much emphasis on a possible event, the potential was a few notches better, as was the potential timing.

If there was a meaningful SSW on the horizon, you know I would be all over it, haha.

There is nothing about the pattern going forward that will augment wave driving in a manner that will threaten the PV. It’s just not going to happen. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but some things are out of our control as wishcasters.

[Deweydog]

15 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Dewey Cox was released in December 2007

Underrated JCR classic.

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

But have to say I’m not liking the trends across guidance of late. After this current brush with arctic cold, there’s a good chance we won’t see any arctic air enter the lower-48 again until sometime in March (IMO).

SSW will fail/PV will restrengthen, with lackluster wave driving thanks to the broad Aleutian High. And no Scandinavian Ridge either. So nothing to prevent a move to full blown +NAM and/or +EPO.

All precursors point to a warm/boring February across the CONUS. Especially in the East, but probably coast to coast.

Yous guys can have it in March. You’re welcome.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Love sunny/snowy. Hopefully, the snow helps maximize the cold 

[Phil]

The precursor patterns were strong in 2017/18, 2018/19, and 2020/21. All culminated a major SSW events that culminated in bonafide “blocking” patterns that redirected RWTs, which is how they delivered in the PNW and elsewhere across the NH.

There is nothing even remotely close to that going forward. To the contrary, the upcoming NH pattern will help strengthen the PV/TPV and lock up the arctic airmass in the high latitudes. Even though it’s a “cool” pattern for the west, it will become progressively less continental (and less cool in general) as the polar airmass gradually retracts. And may eventually end up warm/zonal altogether.

The pattern may grow more favorable for upward wave driving during the second half of February, but that pattern itself is associated with warmth in the PNW/other places. So that pattern, should it manifest, will take at least a couple weeks to knock out the vortex, at which point we will be into March.

Not ready to close the curtain just yet, but it’s getting close.

[Skagit Weather]

I don't know when this will turn around, but the Washington Cascades are still significantly below average precipitation for every period from the last 7 days to the last 12 months. They're 15-25"+ below normal in the last six months (shown below). Hoping that eventually the storm train returns for Feb-April.

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I don't know when this will turn around, but the Washington Cascades are still significantly below average precipitation for every period from the last 7 days to the last 12 months. They're 15-25"+ below normal in the last six months (shown below). Hoping that eventually the storm train returns for Feb-April.

Looks like we're going to need another big Spring.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

how old is that pic?  looks like a snowfield. the copyright date isn't necessarily the photo date. 

I can't be 100% certain, but it says Imagery 2023, Map Data 2023.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I don't know when this will turn around, but the Washington Cascades are still significantly below average precipitation for every period from the last 7 days to the last 12 months. They're 15-25"+ below normal in the last six months (shown below). Hoping that eventually the storm train returns for Feb-April.

I am sure March and April will be non-stop storms and mountain snow.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I am sure March and April will be non-stop storms and mountain snow.   

I hope so honestly. Throw in some cold core convection, hail, and t-storms too.

[Doinko]

11 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I don't know when this will turn around, but the Washington Cascades are still significantly below average precipitation for every period from the last 7 days to the last 12 months. They're 15-25"+ below normal in the last six months (shown below). Hoping that eventually the storm train returns for Feb-April.

Snowpack isn't bad which is good to see, but hopefully we can see a wetter pattern set up

[Gradient Keeper]

7 hours ago, Ray said:

Well said!

[SnowySeeker50]

Can see the Olympics with todays clear skies. Nice day for a walk

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another disappointing day on the forum.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Another disappointing day on the forum.

How so?

[Gradient Keeper]

Cheer up, Day 13 of the Druncle is shaping up! Obviously it's a lock, it's coming, and it's a MBG!